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Thunder Dan Palyo gives his top NBA bets for March 23rd. He lays out his favorite picks against the spread, totals, teasers, and parlays, as well as his favorite player prop of the day.
Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to the very first edition of Thunder Dan's NBA best bets!
If you're here it's likely because you follow me for NBA DFS picks and analysis or you're someone who just loves to bet on the NBA and you're looking for some angles to bet tonight. Either way, I am glad you here.
I have been covering NBA DFS now for the last four seasons, but in the last few years, I have become increasingly more interested in sports betting. I bet mainly through FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks, but I know many bettors still have to use offshore sites. Unfortunately, we still have many states where betting isn't legalized, but DFS and prop games are.
Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, March 23rd, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Long Record 0-0
- Against the Spread 0-0
- Over/Under 0-0
- Teasers/Parlays 0-0
- Player Props 0-0
Against the Spread
Denver Nuggets (-7.5) @ Orlando Magic
The Nuggets are the biggest favorite on the card tonight but are still my top favorite to cover. Despite dropping their last game to a tough Pelicans team, they are still 7-2 this month and are a top-5 team in a loaded Western Conference. They've been battling some injuries throughout the season, but they finally have their core of Jokic-Murray-Barton-Porter Jr.-Millsap back in the lineup together.
The Magic have been struggling all year and have missed key players like Aaron Gordon and Evan Fourier for big chunks of the season. They lost starting point guard Markelle Fultz for the season and then also saw his backup, rookie Cole Anthony also go down. The result has been that star Nikola Vucevic has been playing with retreads and castoffs like Michael Carter-Williams and Al-Farouq Aminu far too often. The Magic are 1-7 this month with their only win being an upset of Brooklyn last week.
Gordon, Fournier, and Vucevic should put up a fight, but Denver is a well-coached and well-rounded team. Jokic should have his way with Vucevic inside and the Nuggets. Denver has the fifth-best net rating in the NBA at +5.2 (a metric that averages out a team's overall effectiveness of offense and defense together) while the Magic are 28th in the league at -6.2.
As far as trends go, I'm not too worried about Denver being on the road here. They are 9-6 this season against the spread as road favorites, while Orlando is only 7-7 as home dogs. I think Denver wins handily tonight against the lowly Magic.
The Pick: Denver -7.5 (good up to 8)
Over/Under
Phoenix Suns (+1) @ Miami Heat (217 total)
Picking a winner here would be tough, as we have two really solid teams facing off here. The fact that the Suns are underdogs here despite having the second-best record shows you that the oddsmakers have a ton of respect for Miami even though they are only one game above .500.
We have a perfect storm for an under here with third and seventh-best defenses in the NBA facing off. We also have two teams that play a very slow, half-court style of basketball. My DFS and betting models factor in pace, offensive and defensive metrics, as well as recent trends, and this game rates well behind all the others tonight. I have the pace projected at only 96 possessions in this one (league average is around 100).
Miami has been solid on unders this season, going under their totals 56% of the time by an average margin of 5.2 points, the widest margin in the league. Phoenix has been more neutral but still trend the right direction here as they've gone under 51% of the time.
When you look at the slow pace and quality of defenses involved it's hard not to love this under. I was expecting to see it somewhere in the 214-215 range when I opened up the games this morning.
The Pick: Under 217 (play all the way down to 215)
Teaser/Parlay
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite 3-team ML parlay or teaser.
Today we are rolling with an over/under teaser. I'm going to include the Miami game as one leg and by buying points, it's one way to ensure my other bet in case it goes over by a few points.
The other two totals that really stand out in my model today are the under in the Washington/New York game and the over in the Portland/Brooklyn game. Usually, I would avoid an under in any game that the Wizards are playing in due to their league-leading pace, but the Knicks play so incredibly slow and have one of the better-rated defenses in the league. Seeing a Knicks game total over 220 isn't something we see often and these two teams combined for only 200 points in their first meeting. I am comfortable going under here, especially with the extra points.
The Brooklyn-Portland game has all the makings of a barn-burner - really good offenses paired with bad defenses. The pace projects to be below league-average but the offensive efficiency of both teams makes me think that they won't need extra possessions to get it done. I have that game pegged for 240 tonight so buying it down a little makes it feel even safer. On FanDuel you can tease up to 5 points, while DraftKings does offer a 7-point sweetheart teaser, but your payout decreases significantly. Here's a five-point teaser for tonight.
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. Betting player props is a ton of fun, and over on FanDuel, they will even let you bet alt-props where you can choose different totals on certain player props. You'll see a lot of PRA (points-rebounds-assists) bets from me, but today I am looking to get a little frisky and bet a 3-point prop.
Let's take a look at these Nuggets tonight who we like to win their game and score well against Orlando. One of the guys who's playing well for them right now is Michael Porter Jr. His minutes have been trending up in a big way and so has his production. He's a hybrid SF-PF player who can stretch the floor and is a plus rebounder.
He's getting up over 5 three-point attempts per game over the last two weeks and has hit 3 or more twice in that stretch. With Orlando allowing the fifth-most three-point attempts in the league this season and giving up over three long-balls to the SF position this year, I like Porter's chances of making three of em tonight at plus odds.
The Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 three-pointers (+112 DK Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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