X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NBA Betting Picks and Analysis for Thursday, April 1st

Thunder Dan Palyo gives his top NBA bets for April 1st. He lays out his favorite picks against the spread, totals, teasers, and parlays, as well as his favorite player prop of the day.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! It might be Opening Day in MLB, but that doesn't mean we still can't make some profit on tonight's NBA games!

I'll start with the good news. On Tuesday, I nailed the Pelicans money line and bet them as underdogs in the morning, only to see them move all the way to five-point favorites by tip-off since the Mavericks sat our both stars. That moved me to 4-0 against the spread this year. The bad news is that I missed on the Washington over, which also ruined our little O/U teaser and Chris Paul came up a few stats shy of his PRA, dropping me to 1-3 on the season on totals, parlays, and props. However, I am confident in the process and ready to get back at it today with some more picks!

If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Overview

For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.

I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, April 1st, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

  • Season Record 7-9
  • Against the Spread 4-0
  • Over/Under 1-3
  • Teasers/Parlays 1-3
  • Player Props 1-3

 

Against the Spread

Atlanta Hawks (+1) @ San Antonio Spurs

I will keep this one pretty short and sweet. Yes, the Spurs handled the Kings last night and picked up a nice win, but we definitely saw that coming after the Kings kicked their butts a few days ago. Sacramento is not good, and that victory doesn't do much to change my mind about the Spurs being mediocre at best.

The Hawks are playing solid basketball right now, and while they are under .500 on the season, they've been competitive on a nightly basis against just about anyone. They're only 1-4 over their last five games, but three of those losses were to top-tier teams (Clippers, Nuggets, Suns). Last year, Atlanta's defense was a major issue, but they are a much better defensive team with the additions of Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Plus they have some nice scoring off the bench with veteran Danilo Gallinari. Once they get De'Andre Hunter back, I see them making a push for a playoff spot.

Atlanta is just simply a better team and with the Spurs being on a back-to-back, I give the Hawks the edge here. This line has already moved from Atlanta +1 to -1, so grab it now before it moves any further towards the Hawks.

The Pick: Atlanta -1 (-109 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Over/Under

Golden State Warriors (+2.5) @ Miami Heat (218.5 total)

This one could be ugly, as most Miami games tend to be. My model likes the under on this game in a big way, followed closely by the over in Charlotte-Brooklyn and Washington-Detroit. But I feel the most confident here. Miami has won their last two games, ending a six-game losing streak during the month of March. But they continue to struggle on offense and seem to be content playing some of the slowest, most boring basketball in the association. Even in their two recent wins, they failed to crack 100 points and held both opponents under 90 points.

The Warriors like to play fast when they can, but their pace has been trending down this season. I have this game pegged for about 97 possessions, which is three lower than the league average. When you factor in Miami's elite defense and the Warriors' struggles to score on offense, I think GSW is held in the 100-point range tonight win or lose.

The Pick: UNDER 218.5 points (good down to 216)

 

Teaser/Parlay

I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.

I am rolling out a three-team ML parlay today with the Hawks, Sixers, and Wizards. Washington is the riskiest play there in my opinion as we never exactly know which version of Westbrook is going to show up, but I like them a lot against a Detroit team that is tanking this season and on a back-to-back. I grabbed this bet early on this morning which is why I got Atlanta at plus odds, but you should still be able to get a decent payout by using these three teams together.

 

Player Prop of the Day

This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. This is an easy bet for me and I wouldn't be surprised for this number to move during the day. Russell Westbrook's rebound prop is only 11.5 on DraftKings tonight. Consider that he's smashed that number in six of his last seven games and the last three in a row by a wide margin, including a 19-rebound performance against these Pistons last week. I'd rather bet on the boards here than Westy's points (since he can go cold shooting) or assists (since that relies on teammates making shots). Russ is going to get his boards and is on a mission to put up a triple-double every night. Hit this prop with confidence and don't look back.

The Pick: Over 11.5 rebounds (-139 DraftKings Sportsbook), good up to 12.5

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Herro29 mins ago

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell43 mins ago

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero49 mins ago

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown54 mins ago

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green1 hour ago

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski1 hour ago

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III1 hour ago

Set For MRI Thursday
Chandler Simpson1 hour ago

Extends Hitting Streak To Four Games
Jacob Melton2 hours ago

Quiet Since Returning From Injured List
Lazaro Montes2 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 5
Joel Díaz2 hours ago

Joel Diaz Continues Strong Start To High-A Season
Ryan Clifford2 hours ago

Goes Deep On Wednesday
Jaison Chourio2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run Of High-A Regular Season
Brady Singer7 hours ago

Earns Fourth Win In Quality Start
Corbin Carroll7 hours ago

Keeps Raking With Two More Homers
Carlos Rodón7 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Strong Again In Win Over Cleveland
Luke Keaschall7 hours ago

Shows Off Speed With Two Swipes
J.P. Crawford7 hours ago

Finally Hits First Home Run Of The Season
Teoscar Hernández8 hours ago

Teoscar Hernandez Busts Out Of Slump Wednesday
Andrew Heaney8 hours ago

Tosses Six Shutout Innings
Triston Casas8 hours ago

Launches Three-Run Homer
Jordan Lawlar8 hours ago

Records Another Multi-Hit Performance
Pete Crow-Armstrong8 hours ago

Homers, Steals Two Bases
Yanquiel Fernandez8 hours ago

With Another Multi-Homer Game
Reese Olson8 hours ago

Strikes Out Seven In Win
Jake Mangum8 hours ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly9 hours ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle9 hours ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone9 hours ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett9 hours ago

Joining The Titans
9 hours ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders9 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL9 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
New Orleans Saints10 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb10 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens10 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice10 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
10 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson10 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
Brandin Podziemski12 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis12 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.13 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings13 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson13 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm13 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks13 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions13 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell13 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski14 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford14 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.14 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum14 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart14 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI15 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha15 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers15 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen15 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg15 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane15 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog16 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos17 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans17 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons17 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints17 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
17 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.23 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander23 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman23 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam23 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo23 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges23 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA23 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle23 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland23 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić23 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy23 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard24 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens24 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard24 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares24 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout24 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen24 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young1 day ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov1 day ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen1 day ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi1 day ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg1 day ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane1 day ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa2 days ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry2 days ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Derek Forbort2 days ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry2 days ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening2 days ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee2 days ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass2 days ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon2 days ago

Won't Play In Game 2