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Well, Kyle Busch is in a lower series race again.
It's been a little bit since we've dealt with this, but it's a reality again for Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series My Bariatric Solutions 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. Busch's return means one of two things for lineup building. The first is that you go full chalk and build around Busch despite his high cost, because he's got a wildly high fantasy projection and there's a very good chance that if Busch doesn't wreck out, it'll be impossible to win anything with a Busch-less lineup. The other possibility is you hope Busch has issues and you build a lineup full of other guys. Today, I'm going with the pro-Busch approach, even though it means I'll be throwing in three of the lower priced drivers to fill out a lineup.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the My Bariatric Solutions 300 on DraftKings. (And if any other DFS providers want to start doing Xfinity, we'll do those too!) Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
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Xfinity DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kyle Busch #54 ($17,000) - Starting 28th
For those of you who are reading this before logging into your DraftKings account, I'd like to point out that the $17,000 price for Busch is not a misprint. The site is trying to price him high enough that he isn't just universally owned, but it's probably not going to work.
That's because even at 17k, Busch's upside starting back in 28th is far too high to ignore. He'll have serious place differential upside, plus seems like a lock to lead the field in fastest laps. The biggest questions: how fast can he get through the field and can he do so cleanly? That's really all that could delay Busch from leading this race in DFS points.
In three Xfinity starts this season, Busch has a worst finish of third. He's led 217 laps. He's had 122 fastest laps. That's in three races -- only five full-time drivers have more fastest laps than Busch despite those drivers all running 15 races.
Noah Gragson #9 ($10,400) - Starting 9th
Speaking of fastest laps, Gragson has run the third-most in Xfinity. He leads the series in average running position and is second in green flag speed.
Now, in the last five races, Gragson has just one top five after having seven in the first 10 races of the season. But that recent slide has also helped Gragson's DFS pricing out a little. He's not as likely to challenge Kyle Busch for the win as Austin Cindric or Chase Briscoe might be, but he's got some really good upside this week and is still one of the top three full-timers in the series right now. And the slight savings you get with him over Cindric or Briscoe will come in very handy when it comes to rounding out a lineup with upside drivers.
Ryan Sieg #39 ($6,500) - Starting 18th
And now we start the "guys you might usually avoid but are grabbing this week to make a Kyle Busch lineup work" section of our article.
Sieg is probably the recommendation that I'm least comfortable with this week, but *points to Kyle Busch's price again*
What worries me is the 18th place starting spot and the potential downside that comes along with that for Sieg in terms of place differential, but Sieg has also had his share of strong runs this year, especially at intermediate tracks, as he finished third in Vegas and ninth in the first Kentucky race. Consistency has sometimes been an issue, but this car is capable of running in the top 10, and I think that's a good enough reason to roster him this week, tbh.
Colby Howard #15 ($5,700) - Starting 35th
Minus a crash at the first Kentucky race, Howard has top 21 finishes in his last five races in this JD Motorsports 15 car, and he starts Saturday's race in 35th. Lot of good place differential upside at a really enticing price.
In fact, our DFS projections have Howard as one five drivers with a projected fantasy points per $1,000 over six. Fun fact: four of those five drivers are in this week's article lineup. If we're stacking things with drivers at the back of the pricing list, we should try to maximize our production from those guys, right?
Howard has had less speed that his teammates this season, ranking 24th in green flag speed, ranking behind Jesse Little and Jeffrey Earnhardt, but he's done a good job of making use of what speed this car has, and so far it's been working.
Jesse Little #4 ($5,200) - Starting 20th
I will say that Little starting 20th gives me some pause, but he hasn't finished outside of the top 20 since Bristol. His results this year are impressive when you factor in the equipment he's driving:
I've been really impressed with JD Motorsports this year. They continue to improve their performance year after year, and they're reaching the point where they're putting out multiple cars capable of running top 20, not just one.
So yeah, I'm good with Little this week. Priced really well. Consistent production. Just the kind of guy you need in a Kyle Busch lineup.
Kyle Weatherman #47 ($5,100) - Starting 33rd
Weatherman crashed on the first lap of the last Kentucky race, but before that he'd piloted this Mike Harmon ride to some really solid finishes. 15th at Pocono, followed by another 15th at Indy, and then an eighth in the first Kentucky race.
I'm not sure how much to trust this production since Harmon's car have traditionally struggled, but Weatherman's DFS pricing and his place differential upside is worth the risk. Yes, he's DNFed four of his eight starts this season and that needs to be weighed when you figure out what to do with your lineup, but he's also the cheapest driver worth using this week and has a projected fantasy points per $1,000 of 6.08, the fourth-best mark of anyone starting this race.
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