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This is it. There's just one more chance to earn a spot in the NASCAR Xfinity Series championship race. Josh Berry and Noah Gragson are locked in. Ty Gibbs has a big edge over the cut line. And then there are five drivers—A.J. Allmendinger, Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, Sam Mayer and Brandon Jones—fighting for the final spot, or the final two spots if something happens to Gibbs.
So, who'll advance from Martinsville? Brandon Jones won the first time the Xfinity Series was here this season, while the only other Xfinity winners here in the field are Berry and Gragson, who are already locked into the Championship 4.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the Dead on Tools 250 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 10/29/22 at 3:34 p.m. ET.
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A.J. Allmendinger - Starting 9th ($10,900)
The obvious top plays are Noah Gragson and Ty Gibbs, since those two have the best chance of winning a race on a weekly basis. But I think that's going to leave A.J. Allmendinger overlooked at one of his best tracks.
In the Cup Series, Allmendinger has seven top 10s in 22 starts here. That's tied for his most top 10s at a track with Watkins Glen, and the most top 10s he has at another track other than a road course or superspeedway is at Homestead and Kansas, where he has four. He also has a pair of top fives, and has led 50 laps.
That success in Cup hasn't translated to a Martinsville win in Xfinity...yet. He was third here earlier in the year, his second top 10 in a row at this track, and he led 68 laps in the 2020 race. Expect Allmendinger to be a factor.
Austin Hill - Starting 36th ($9,500)
There are some really obvious place differential plays in this race. Let's talk about them.
Hill comes into this race with a good shot to advance in theory, as he's just seven points behind A.J. Allmendinger for the final spot. But it's going to be tough for him to get there, as he'll start 36th.
Not good at all for a driver that's hoping to find his way into the Championship 4. But for our selfish, fantasy purposes here, this starting spot's pretty good. Hill's a playoff driver starting 36th—there's a huge amount of upside here from a place differential perspective.
Hill's only visit here in Xfinity came earlier this year, when he started 14th and finished fourth. Getting a top five when he starts this low is probably a little outside of the normal range of possibilities, but if he can keep the car clean, he can challenge for a top 10.
Daniel Hemric - Starting 37th ($8,500)
After crashing in practice, Hemric and his Kaulig Racing team will start way back in 37th.
The argument for Hemric is essentially the same as the argument for Hill, but with less upside, because the car isn't quite as good. Hemric's average finish this year is 16.1, while Hill's is 11.1.
But even if we just go with the most basic math imaginable and say that Hemric's got five places less of place differential upside, the fact that he starts one spot behind Hill actually brings that number to four. And a lot of Hemric's struggles have been luck-based, as he's been running at the finish in just 24 of the 31 races so far.
Hemric was 13th here earlier in the year. Last season, he finished third in both Xfinity Series races here, but he was also driving a much better Joe Gibbs Racing car.
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Nick Sanchez - Starting 24th ($7,700)
Sanchez is back in the 48 car, and it's definitely starting to feel like he has a larger Xfinity role coming next year based on how much we've been seeing him lately. This is his fifth race in this 48 car, and he has a pair of top 15s so far.
Homestead wasn't kind to Sanchez last week though, as he qualified 11th but only finished 25th, two laps behind race winner Noah Gragson. And his only short track race in this car was at Bristol, where he finished 29th.
But this Big Machine car has some solid speed in it, and I'm betting on that speed on Saturday. Sanchez is a kind of boring option, but I think because of that, he'll go under-used in DFS this week. There's an easy scenario where this car finishes around 12th, considering that scenario has come true in two of his last three races.
Kyle Weatherman - Starting 38th ($6,900)
It looked like Jesse Iwuji was going to drive this car this week, which would have killed any DFS value, but Weatherman was added to the seat late in the week. That's good, because Weatherman is genuinely good in this car. He's finished in the top 20 in four of the last five races, and the one where he didn't was at Texas where he crashed—but still finished 22nd.
Weatherman had some kind of mechanical issue that caused him to miss qualifying, which is why this car is starting 38th. The mechanical issue scares me; I know this team has run well, but I'm always wary of a small team's ability to consistently field a car that doesn't have issues, and having them this early in the race weekend could be a problem.
But provided the car is at full strength on Saturday, we've got a lot of place differential upside here.
C.J. McLaughlin - Starting 34th ($4,800)
I didn't set out to write about four drivers starting 34th or worse. It's just kind of how the starting lineup shook out. If drivers like Hill, Hemric and Weatherman had made qualifying runs, I probably would have spent time looking at guys like Sam Mayer ($9,700, starts 22nd), Landon Cassill ($8,600, 16th) or Ryan Sieg ($8,200, 17th).
But McLaughlin starting in the back isn't really a shock. In 12 races this season, his average starting spot is only 33.1.
The reason I'm high on him when it comes to DFS is that his average start is what it is, but his average finish is 26.3. He doesn't have a lot of single-car run speed, but he maneuvers around the track well on race day.
McLaughlin has really struggled in his last three starts though, with a best finish of 29th. But he also has six top 25s this year. At this price, I'll take a chance on him.
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