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The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Saturday for the second race of the season. Last week, John Hunter Nemechek drove to victory at Auto Club, leading 49 laps on the way to the win. Sam Mayer, Justin Allgaier, Chandler Smith and Josh Berry rounded out the top five.
When we were last here in October, Josh Berry won the race, with JR Motorsports dominating the race, sweeping the top three spots with Berry, Noah Gragson and Allgaier, with Mayer coming in seventh. It was a race where the top teams were dominant, and where there wasn't much surprise: the top nine finishers started 12th or better.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Alsco Unifirms 300 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 3/4/23 at 4:47 p.m. ET.
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Justin Allgaier
Starting 2nd - $10,800
Kyle Busch is in this race, which means we all have to consider if we're comfortable paying for Kyle Busch. His salary is $13,500, and the second-highest salary on the board is $11,100. He also has to start from the back because he moved to a backup car, but he won't get the place differential from that, as he's credited with an 11th-place start. Just too much downside there for me to build a Kyle Busch lineup. Maybe I'll regret it, but I'm going full fade on him Saturday.
Justin Allgaier has never won at Vegas, but he's come close, with nine top fives and 14 top 10s in 17 starts. His average finish here is 7.6, his best of any track that he's made more than three starts at. At some point, he'll get a win here.
Allgaier didn't lead any laps in the last race here, but in the spring Vegas race last season, he led 62 laps and finished fifth, and in the race before that, he led 90s laps and finished second. With Kyle Busch not in position to lead early, Allgaier has a great shot to rack up laps led on Saturday.
Sam Mayer
Starting 13th - $9,500
Mayer might not have the same shot to win this that teammates Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry likely have, but he should be one of the eight-ish best cars on the grid. He led 25 laps in this race a year ago, but a late accident ended his shot at winning, and he finished 25th. In the other race here, he finished seventh, the worst of the JRM cars.
I should probably say more about Mayer, but I'm really not sure how to expand this. He's a JRM driver who starts outside the top 10, so there's a little place differential upside, and I also think he's likely to get a little overlooked because of his uneven track record here. Maybe I'm wrong, but he feels like a nice pivot off of some of the more obvious plays.
Brandon Jones
Starting 19th - $9,000
You know what? Let's throw another JRM driver in here. Brandon Jones has the most place differential upside of the team's four drivers, as he rolls off 19th on Saturday. [Edit: completely forgot that Jones goes to the back actually. Doesn't change the fact that I'm playing him in a lot of lineups, and might make it better because some people will fade him for that. He should be able to navigate traffic and get a good result.]
So when I mentioned playing Mayer because he has more PD upside than a JRM driver usually would, well...the same applies even more so to Jones, though I also know this means he'll be rostered at a higher rate than Mayer will be.
Jones has run really well here, with nine top 10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 9.3. It's not his best average finish at a track, but it's not very far off his best average finish. He has just one finish worse than 15th, and while he hasn't necessarily gotten close to winning—he only has two top fives, despite the nine top 10s—he's still delivered good results here.
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Sammy Smith
Starting 14th - $8,700
In October, JGR cars finished fifth and fifth here at Vegas. In March, a JGR won here. None of those drivers were Sammy Smith, but their results play into why I like Smith, which is that he's a JGR driver who starts outside the top 10. Essentially, it's the same as my argument for Mayer and Jones. (I will make an exception, though: usually, I'd play a JGR driver who started 17th, but this week, that driver is Joe Graf Jr., so I'll pass.)
Anyway. We don't have a track record here for Sammy Smith, because he's never raced here. But he finished eighth in his only Xfinity start on a 1.5-mile track (Kansas), which is at least a little bit of an encouraging sign. Still, if you're a "I need to see it before I play him" type person, I can't really give you much here. Great car. Fascinating driver. Place differential. Those aren't cold hard facts like past track stats are, but they're compelling reasons still, IMO.
Kyle Weatherman
Starting 26th - $6,400
Last year, Weatherman made a habit of overperforming in the 34 car. Now, can he overperform in the 02 car?
The answer to that might depend on what Our Motorsports even is right now. The team overexpanded last year, derailing what had been a promising path for the team. This year, they're back to one car, and David Starr drove it to a 22nd-place finish at Daytona and a 35th at Auto Club last week.
But Weatherman's a better driver than Starr at this point, and I'm not convinced Our has fallen off the map. I think this is someone who can get a top 15 out of this car. I mean...he finished 14th in the Jesse Iwuji-owned 34 in the last Xfinity race here, while Our's 23 car finished 10th with Anthony Alfredo driving.
Jeffrey Earnhardt
Starting 35th - $5,500
Earnhardt's first two races with Alpha Prime Racing haven't been much to write home about, with finishes of 28th and 26th. But with Earnhardt firing off 35th on Saturday, there's enough place differential that you'd be okay with a finish around 26th—that'd be 25 fantasy points, which won't kill you.
Of course, you don't play someone expecting them to finish 26th. You play someone like Earnhardt in the hopes that something weird happens—either other drivers having trouble, or this team hits the right combo and he ends up closer to the top 20. Last Vegas race, Rajah Caruth got 20th in an APR car, while Stefan Parsons was 23rd.
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