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Hi, everyone! On Thursday, the NASCAR Xfinity Series will get a little more normal. Following races at Talladega, Pocono, and the Indianapolis road course, the Shady Rays 200 at Kentucky Speedway is going to seem a lot more predictable and should feature far fewer cautions than we've been seeing.
Of course, the race isn't totally normal, as it's part of an Xfinity doubleheader weekend, which means the results of Thursday's race will determine the starting order of Friday's race, which could lead to some hard racing mid-pack late in the goings and, potentially, wreck some lack havoc on your DFS teams!
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the Shady Rays 200 on DraftKings. (And if any other DFS providers want to start doing Xfinity, we'll do those too!) Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
Xfinity DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Noah Gragson #9 ($10,600) - Starting 1st
I think we're going to try a slightly different approach than normal this week, which is grabbing a couple of guys up front for the value, laps led potential, and finishing upside.
Let's start with Gragson, who starts on the pole. Last year, Christopher Bell led 72 laps from a front row starting spot. In 2018, Justin Allgaier led 32 and Cole Custer led 14 from their first row spots. Drivers starting upfront here have a tendency to stay close to there.
Gragson also leads the Xfinity Series in average running position, driver rating, and green flag speed. We've got an extremely fast car starting from the lead. This could very easily be one of those "well, Gragson's driving away with it" races.
Ross Chastain #10 ($10,000) - Starting 2nd
Chastain is the other first row driver this week, and like Gragson he's been quick all season, though not quite as quick as that 9 car.
Chastain ranks fifth in driver rating and 10th in green flag speed. He's an extremely tough driver to pass and while his history at this track isn't great, he's rarely raced it in good equipment. You could argue that the two best cars he's brought here are a Hattori Xfinity car years ago and a Niece truck last year, and both of those races resulted in top 10s for Chastain, including a fourth run last season.
And like with Gragson, there's the "clean air" thing. Starting where he does, Chastain has the opportunity to lead some laps and keep the car out of trouble all day.
Riley Herbst #18 ($8,400) - Starting 23rd
Okay, here's the upside play.
Herbst only has six top 10s this season. He's finished 30th or worse in two of the last three races. His results at intermediate tracks this year are pretty "meh," with a ninth at Vegas, 12th at Charlotte, and 17th at Atlanta.
But he's driving a Joe Gibbs Toyota. We know those have speed. He's starting 23rd. We know this isn't a 23rd place car.
Yes, any time you roster Herbst in DFS is a scary moment at this point because his finished are wildly unpredictable, but I can't pass up the upside here. He has a chance to have top 10 speed from a sub-20th starting position.
Brandon Brown #68 ($7,500) - Starting 19th
Through 13 races, Brandon Brown has three top 10s. But if you remove the three races where car issues led to him not finishing from the equation, his worst finish is 14th.
Which is why I'm basically always going to be interested in Brown as long as this random draw keeps happening for qualifying. If he stays just outside the top 12 in owners points, he won't start better than 13th anywhere, and will almost always come with a little place differential upside. This week is no exception. Until I see Brown struggle for a reason other than an unpredictable mechanical one, I'm going to stay on the Brandonbilt Motorsports hype train.
Joe Graf Jr. #08 ($6,600) - Starting 31st
Another upside play, Graf's going through a rough patch right now that included crashes at Talladega and Pocono.
But with top 20 finishes at Vegas, Darlington, Charlotte, and Homestead twice, I'm feeling good at Graf's ability to run on these intermediate length tracks.
He's only 26th in average green flag speed, but his finishes for much of this season have shown him to run better than the car should run, and at his $6,600 price, I'm fine filling out a lineup with Graf this week.
Jeffrey Earnhardt #0 ($6,800) - Starting 24th
I'm not the biggest Jeffrey Earnhardt guy, but I think he's a solid value guy this week.
Since taking over his JD Motorsports car at Darlington, Earnhardt has had one mechanical failure that led to a 38th place finish. Other than that, he's never finished below 25th, and has five top 20s.
It feels like Earnhardt is still being priced like a backmarker while actually being a mid-pack driver. Take advantage of that. His average running position has been 24th or better in all but two races. This is a solid car, one that won't sink your DFS lineup unless there's an accident or something breaks. That's not something that a lot of similarly priced drivers can say.
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