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NASCAR is back at Daytona on Friday night, with the Xfinity Series running the superspeedway layout of the track for the Wawa 250.
Superspeedways are always among the hardest races to predict, because the pack racing that they produce often leads to some big wrecks, which can take the top drivers out of contention really quickly. But these races also give us a chance to make moves we wouldn't usually, grabbing low-cost drivers who normally wouldn't have much value but now do because of the randomness of these races.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the Wawa 250 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
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Xfinity DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings
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AJ Allmendinger #16 ($11,500) - Starting 34th
It's pretty easy for a good car to make its way from the back of the field to the front of the field at a superspeedway. I mean, Allmendinger did it at Talladega, starting 34th and finishing seventh.
Allmendinger's an extremely interesting play this week. If this race remains mostly tame and we don't get huge, field-destroying wrecks, Allmendinger's place differential upside and projected top 10 finish make him THE driver you want in your DFS lineup. Our optimizer has Allmendinger earning a projected 5.33 fantasy points per $1,000 of salary this week, making him the ONLY driver priced at $7,600 or above to have a value of five or better. No one else in this field has the upside of Allmendinger.
Of course, everyone also knows this, so Allmendinger's going to be chalky as hell. He'll be on the most DFS lineups of any driver by a pretty wide margin. So, you've got to play him in some lineups because of the upside, but try going a little lighter on him than you might want to if you're running a lot of lines, because you want to account for the possibility of things getting weird and Allmendinger crashing out.
Noah Gragson #9 ($8,500) - Starting 4th
While things can get strange here, it's worth noting that in seven races here since 2017, the race winner has come from outside of the top 10 just once, and that was in this year's season-opener, when Noah Gragson won after starting 12th.
Half of the top 10 finishers in that race started in the top 10. Three drivers starting in the top 10 finished 30th or worse.
The point: some drivers who start near the front will stay near the front, and you've got to figure out which ones it'll be. I like picking Gragson as one of those drivers, because he is the last person to win an Xfinity race here, plus he finished 10th at Talladega.
His aggressive driving style gives me some pause, but he's a better driver to take a shot on than Brandon Jones or Daniel Hemric if you're looking at guys starting in the top 10.
Ross Chastain #10 ($8,300) - Starting 2nd
Our other driver who starts near the front, Ross Chastain is still searching for his first Xfinity victory of the season.
Maybe it can come at the place where his last Xfinity victory happened?
Chastain finished second the last time the series visited a superspeedway, and these Kaulig Racing cars have been running really well at this type of track. At Talladega, for instance, Kaulig finished first and second, with Justin Haley leading 16 laps and Chastain leading a race-high 24.
I think this is a good week to trust the Kaulig machines.
Timmy Hill #61 ($7,500) - Starting 31st
Alright, this is where we start taking some more swings.
In the first Daytona race this year, half of the top 10 finishers started in the top 10, but one of them started outside of the top 25, and that driver was Timmy Hill, who was driving the 66 for Carl Long.
This week, he's in the Hattori 61 car for the first time since Kansas. He drove that car to some solid finishes, including a top 10 at Pocono and three other top 20s. This car isn't necessarily a good one, but it's a stronger team than the one he's in when he's in the 66.
Anyway, Hill's a pretty good superspeedway racer, with four top 10s at Daytona. Considering he only has six total top 10s in Xfinity, his results at this track really stand out. He's got place differential upside and has been running at the end of all nine of his starts here, with a worst finish of 23rd.
Gray Gaulding #07 ($7,300) - Starting 28th
Another upside guy starting in the back, Gaulding has run one race in Xfinity this year, finished eighth at Talladega.
Last year, it looked like the young driver was carving out a future in the Bobby Dotter 08 car, but a full-time return this year didn't materialize, with Joe Graf Jr. getting the car. But Gaulding gets a chance in the team's other car again this week, and considering he had two top 10s at superspeedways last year, I think he's definitely a guy who should be on your radar.
Jeffrey Earnhardt #0 ($5,900) - Starting 24th
Finally, let's wrap things up with Jeffrey Earnhardt.
Earnhardt doesn't have the same place differential upside of some drivers priced under him, but he also doesn't have as much "okay, that car is retiring after 20 laps due to mysterious overheating issues" as those drivers either.
Earnhardt was 14th in his only superspeedway start of the season and doesn't have a particularly great track record at these kinds of tracks. His only superspeedway top 10 in a top three series was the 2011 Daytona Truck Series race, when he finished seventh.
But three JD Motorsports cars finished in the top 20 at the first Daytona race, and every season since 2015 has seen at least one car from this team finish 11th or better in at least one race at this track. This team's got a decent superspeedway program, and Earnhardt's a good bet to continue that run of solid production here.
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