RADIO
We're back for the second day of the Pocono doubleheader! Yesterday, we saw Kevin Harvick finally cross the Tricky Triangle off his list of tracks where he hasn't won a Cup Series race. Today thanks to the grid invert for the top 20 spots, he starts 20th.
This is going to be an especially fun race to watch for the drivers up front early. Ryan Preece, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Cole Custer all start in the first three rows. Can they stay up front, or will drivers like Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch make their way up through the field quickly?
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Pocono 350
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Pocono
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Because of the place differential upside that isn't usually there with the top drivers in the series, some of the best values this week are actually the highest priced drivers. On DraftKings, for instance, here's the FP/$ of the eight most expensive drivers:
In fact, Logano's actually the second-best value in the field. This is not the kind of day where you're going to be able to exploit FP/$ like you'll want to, because the starting grid is constructed in such a way that we just don't have a lot of guys further back with a FP/$ over five today. But Logano does roll off from the back of the pack, so lots of upside there.
But two guys you might want to watch: Erik Jones (8.28 FP/$) and Aric Almirola (6.88 FP/$). Jones crashed on Saturday and had to go to a backup car. He'll roll off 38th and has had a lot of success here. (More on that in the article about Saturday's race.) Almirola ran well yesterday and starts 18th.
Saturday's Ownership Percentages
Here's something we can do -- see how highly owned drivers were yesterday, because I'd wager that a lot of less experienced DFS players are going to roster guys at a similar rate today.
To start off, today's most expensive drivers were pretty highly owned on Saturday. Here's the DraftKings numbers:
Makes sense.
If we're looking for things of interest, Logano was only 9.7% owned. Expect that to be higher today, and as I said above, I'm a big fan of him in the 350.
Erik Jones was 59.7% owned, which I know hurt a lot of y'all when he crashed. I like his value a ton today, but he should be highly owned again.
Only 12.7% of people had Almirola. Concerns about him starting from the pole hurt, but ow he's a huge, huge value from his current starting spot. I expect his ownership will rise a lot.
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Saturday's Driver Ratings
So, who had the best driver ratings yesterday?
First, I want to ignore the other side of that question, which is "who had the worst ones," because I don't like extrapolating bad things from a tiny sample. But since most of these drivers are in the same cars today, we can sure extrapolate good things!
Almirola's 133.0 rating stands out, as it was the highest in the race. Again, the pricing on him today is juicy.
Other drivers with a rating over 100: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr.
The Roush Fenway Racing cars both had driver ratings in the 90s, with Chris Buescher at 95.5 and Ryan Newman at 90.4. Both are cheap on DraftKings and FanDuel and would be solid lineup additions, especially Buescher, who starts 11th on Sunday. Newman starting sixth gives me a little bit of pause.
And finally, one caution: Ryan Preece will be scored as the polesitter. His 62.5 driver rating was fairly mediocre, but his pricing is nice, so you might think "hey, maybe he'll lead some laps." But Preece made an engine change and will start from the rear despite being scored as starting first, so avoid him at all costs. Far too much downside now.
