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Hello once again everyone! We head to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 this week and the third 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Joey Logano Over 42.5 Points. This week we again start with what is hopefully an easy pick. Joey Logano has won twice in the not so distant past at Las Vegas. It is a tradition that Team Penske cars are fast and finish in the top-10. In this case, a top-10 result guarantees 34 points at the worst. All that means is one has to accumulate 8.6 points through either fastest laps or laps led or both. Logano, one would figure, should be able to combine for at least ten points there. Being close to the front helps. Go with the over.
Austin Cindric over 23.5 Points. The risk with playing the rookie is fun with house money. He has hit twice already and the cash was too easy. With another low-hanging number, this is worth a try. He only has to finish inside the top-20. If Austin Cindric somehow ends up in the front for a bit, that's just a bonus. Cindric likely with a bit of decent luck finishes in the top-10 last week. He should be middle of the pack barring something unforeseen, or better, at Las Vegas. Take that over.
Denny Hamlin Over 39.5 Points. The dicey nature of this one is fun. Hamlin could lead some laps here but did Joe Gibbs Racing truly fix that blasted screen issue? If that answer is yes then Hamlin should top 40 points. Hamlin does not have to win though that would be a bonus. A top-five finish is plausible and that would be just enough with a few laps led. Previous loop dates makes this more plausible too. Take the over here.
Kyle Larson Under 66.5 Points. The #5 driver hit the prop last week because he just barely squeaked over the bar and I mean barely. For math majors only, Larson got 45 points for the win, had 16 fastest laps for 7.2 points and then 28 laps led for 7 points. That adds up to yes...59.2 points. Here is what needs to happen. One needs a win or a ton from the other two categories. A win means Larson would need 21.6 additional points minimum. This could backfire. We surfed it way too close last week. It is just hard to go to the well twice here. This is especially true with so many lurking. Take the under.
Kyle Busch Under 59.5 Points. This could be tougher than it looks. The younger Busch has to win the race from the back of the field. That is not impossible. It happens in NASCAR. However, he has to lead enough laps in combination with fastest laps to get to nearly 60 points. That is asking a lot. There are 267 laps but again could there be a lot of lead changes? Absolutely. Add in some cautions and the thought process is that the younger Busch doesn't quite get there. Take the under again.
Some other drivers to look at:
Austin Dillon (Over 26.5 points) -- Dillon has four top-13 finishes at Las Vegas in his last five appearances. That is more than enough points to hit the over. Last year, he led seven laps and had five fastest laps. That just pads the number further. This prop is just low enough. Dillon could get over 30 points if things break right this week. Take the over.
Chase Elliott (over 48.5 points) -- Sorry everyone again. Elliott could end up in the top-five and lead some laps with some fastest laps battle as well. Let's rack up that over.
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan has a 100+ unit betting profit since 2023, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
