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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Talladega Superspeedway one last time from Talladega Motor Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Under 31.5 Points. This is the week we flip the script and run a lot of unders. The younger Busch has not had much success at Talladega lately. Take the UNDER here as a crash is very possible on Sunday. His last top-nine result was the Spring race in 2017. That is more than four years ago. Ninth place would be worth 32 points and the over by the way. It is hard to believe the No. 18 won't try too hard at some point and get himself into trouble. Again, is a DNF a possibility? Very much so. He only has two in his last eight races but he has led less than ten laps in his last eight appearances. Think less and take the under.
Denny Hamlin Over 34.5 Points. The risk is extremely high here but Hamlin has five top six results in his last eight appearances. The great news for Hamlin is that he has already advanced to the Round of 8. That is not enough for Hamlin who went winless during the regular season but has two wins in the first four playoff races. The No. 11 car performs well at Talladega and often carries a lot of speed but sometimes too much downforce. It is a concern. However, that will allow Hamlin to hold his lines and positioning a bit longer. Take the over here in what should be a nip-and-tuck battle to stay in the top five.
Ryan Blaney Over 33.5 Points. The idea is great with the Penske having a chance at taking at least two or three of the top five spots on Sunday. It is still a risk only because even though Blaney has won this race recently, that does not mean something else would happen. Again, Talladega just seems to have a curse just when one figures things out. It's just one of those tracks that have its magic. Blaney has a first, first, and ninth in three of his last four races. In those two wins, he led a combined 98 laps. Taking the over is at least worth a try.
Kyle Larson Under 32.5 Points. The bad thing is that the superspeedway knocks Larson's prop down by several points. It makes this a far closer prop than it probably should be. However, the No. 5 car may not be good again to lead some laps and nab a podium finish. There is a chance that Larson winds up with a ton of issues yet again. Larson has four DNF's in his last five appearances at Talladega. Furthermore, he does not have a top ten since the Fall race of 2016. The most likely one is Kyle Larson finishing just around or outside the top ten.
Martin Truex Jr. Under 30.5 Points. This is nuts, right? Wrong! It is close on the surface and yet Truex Jr. could finish far worse. He has so many outside the top-20 results at Talladega. The problem was most prop sites could go too low with the Joe Gibbs Racing driver but most would have understood why. It is the 2.66-mile track and the package that just is not a fit here. Expect Truex Jr. to gradually fade and never fully recover on Sunday. He will not lead any laps barring something unforeseen and a top-ten is fairly unlikely. He may not even finish in the top-15.
Some other drivers to look at:
Chris Buescher (not ranked) -- If one can find a top ten prop somewhere else, bet on it. Buescher is quite good on this superspeedway.
Aric Almirola (over 31 points) -- Almirola is a top ten magnet of potential here. Again, think about those winning chances.
Matt DiBenedetto (over 29.5 points) -- Sorry everyone again. DiBenedetto loves the superspeedway and finished fifth in the Spring.
Christopher Bell (under 29 points) -- Feast or famine pick here. Either he surprises or flops out of the top-20. We lean more towards the latter.
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