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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Charlotte Motor Speedway one last time for the Bank Of America ROVAL 400 this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Under 34.5 Points. This is the week we again run a few more of the unders. The younger Busch has not had much success at the ROVAL. Here is the other problem. The No. 18 car is under the gun as far as "The Chase". Being on the bubble may force an unforced error or two. This will be a close prop but the feeling is Busch will wind up in the top ten but maybe in seventh or eighth place. Taking the UNDER here requires a ton of bravery but it can be done.
Christopher Bell Under 32.5 Points. The risk is elevated here but despite some of Christopher Bell's successes on road courses, the feeling is can he stay near the front long enough? He led six laps in his only appearance last year but faded rapidly at the end and wound up 24th. Could something similar happen again? That is possible. Maybe the tumble down the standings will not be quite as precipitous but Bell's car on long runs may be problematic. With laps led being worth just 0.01 points on PrizePicks, there is less of a premium on them. Can Bell finish in the top eight? If one feels he cannot, then just take the under once again.
Chase Elliott Over 38.5 Points. The idea is simple here. Elliott's odds of finishing first or second is near even. Let's be honest. Even when things do not go well, the No. 9 car finds ways to get right at the front on this type of track. Elliott has won two of the three races at the Charlotte ROVAL. This is probably one not to overthink too much. The chances he gets 39+ points are greater than 50% on Sunday afternoon. Take the OVER here and the closest to a free prop essentially.
Kyle Larson Under 37.5 Points. The bad thing is that the other Hendricks racing hard knocks Larson's chances of hitting the over several notches. It makes this a far closer prop than it probably should be. However, the No. 5 car may not be good again to lead some laps and nab a podium finish. There is a chance that Larson winds up outside of the top five. Larson has some decent finishes at the ROVAL but nothing inside the top ten. Alas, there is a hope of rolling the bones with the under on this Hendricks driver one more time on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 35.5 Points. This is nuts, right? Wrong! It is razor-thin close with little margin for error. However, Truex Jr. probably finishes around the top five on Sunday. That seems to be the growing projection. Again, anything and everything can happen when there are eliminations afoot. Drivers just race differently. See the third race of "The Chase" as a prime example. Truex Jr. should be able to dodge the potential carnage as the race unfolds. This week, PrizePicks outdid itself and created some extremely challenging prop totals. Take the over and sweat it out like the rest of us.
Some other drivers to look at:
A.J. Allmendinger (over 32.5 points) -- If one can find a top ten prop somewhere else, bet on it. Allmendinger finished seventh in his only appearance on the ROVAL. That may happen again on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick (over 27.5 points) -- Reddick could be a top ten magnet of potential here. Again, think about those winning chances.
Michael McDowell (under 25 points) -- Sorry everyone again. McDowell's chances of crashing look to be higher here and he has not factored in many races of late.
Kurt Busch (over 30 points) -- No one would be surprised if the elder Busch sneaks into the top five even. At the very least, a top ten is likely as the No. 1 car has run very well on the ROVAL.
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