Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Vikings vs Bears

On the surface, we will be staring down at another potentially disappointing Monday Night contest between the inept offense of the Chicago Bears and the questionable defense of the Minnesota Vikings. With any luck, we will have a similar scenario last week: two teams with underwhelming performances combining to create an entertaining game. The Patriots and Jets came into Monday night in Week 9 averaging a combined 30 points per game, then went off for 57 points, including a last-second game-winning field goal for New England. Hopefully, these two NFC North rivals can find a way to make some magic happen and end the week on a high note as well.

So far in 2020, the Chicago offense has looked like a mess. Injuries along the offensive line have restricted Chicago’s already questionable run game and Nick Foles has struggled to make anything happen offensively. After a 5-1 start, the Bears have dropped three straight games to the Rams, Saints, and Titans to come scuffling into their Monday Night game looking at a potential .500 record ten games into the season. The Bears are averaging 19.8 points per game, the fourth-lowest total in the league this year. Their defense has continued to carry them with the Bears surrendering just 21.1 points per week.

On the other side, Minnesota has started to come around thanks to the superhuman efforts of Dalvin Cook in the past two games. After an 0-3 start, Minnesota has won three of their last four games thanks to their bell-cow running back. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 27.1 points per game on offense, but have struggled mightily on defense. The Vikings are giving up an average of 29.3 points per week, the eighth-most points per game in the NFL. The Vikings will hope to lean on Cook yet again against one of the stingier run defenses in the NFL the past few weeks.

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 

• Game time: Monday 11/16 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Minnesota -2.5
• Over/Under: 43.5

Must-Starts

Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)

Dalvin Cook has been on an absolute rampage since returning from an injury in Week 8. Cook has 52 carries for 369 yards and five touchdowns on the ground while adding four receptions (on five targets) for 109 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks against divisional foes. Those totals elevated him to the top rusher in the NFL (before Week 10 started) even though he has only played in seven games this season. The Bears will pose a difficult matchup in Week 10 given their improving run defense (16.6 points per week allowed on the season) evidenced by their ability to contain Derrick Henry in Week 9. Henry had 21 carries for 68 yards against Chicago the week before, but the difference is Cook has a far greater role as a pass-catcher which makes him matchup-proof each week.

Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)

The beautiful thing about the Bears offense being terrible is it opens Nick Foles up to some huge garbage time efforts. And when that happens this season, then Allen Robinson is the primary beneficiary. Robinson has been targeted at least nine times in seven of nine games this season. He has at least four catches in eight games on the year. Only once has he gone for less than 53 receiving yards in 2020. Robinson has been the most consistent aspect of an offense that struggles mightily to find a player to rely on. All that being said, Robinson will have an opportunity to shine on Monday night against the Vikings.

Minnesota is allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, allowing 31.2 points per game to the position on the season. While Minnesota is giving up just a modest number of yards (1,518, 24th in the NFL), they have given up a league-leading 16 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers on the year. If Minnesota is going to keep climbing to try and catch up to the Packers, they are going to need to find a way to remove Robinson from the Bears' offensive gameplan.

Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)

While he is starting to gain some notoriety in social media circles, Darnell Mooney’s accomplishments this year as a rookie are flying under the radar to most fantasy gamers. After a modest start, Mooney has carved out a significant role in the Bears’ passing game, receiving at least five targets in every game since Week 3 while catching at least three passes and going for over 30 yards in five of seven games. More importantly, Mooney is seeing more and more time on the field during games, logging at least an 81% snap share in each game in the last three weeks.

Given the consistent target and snap share combined with the Vikings' porous secondary, Mooney has a legitimate upside as a wide receiver, especially with so many big games out because of bye weeks.

Consider Sitting

Nick Foles (QB, CHI)

Nick Foles finds himself in a sort of fantasy football purgatory in Week 10; he isn’t good at football, but at the same time, the Vikings are that bad in the secondary. Minnesota is allowing 21 points per game to quarterbacks thanks to a 19 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio. Minnesota has had a rotating cast of inexperienced players in their secondary and has been picked apart by strong quarterback play all year. Unfortunately, what Nick Foles can do isn’t always “strong quarterback play.”

Foles does have playable upside because, despite the Bears' failing record, he has put together a nice little statistical streak together that matters more for fantasy than NFL football. Since Week 4, Foles has attempted at least 40 passes in every game. He has at least 240 passing yards in five of his six starts. In the last two weeks, Foles has multiple passing touchdowns in the last two contests against the Saints and Titans. There are likely plenty of players on your waiver wire that can match or exceed Foles’ production, but he is a viable option.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Kirk Cousins isn’t being asked to do much this season, but he has continued to put the Vikings in a position to win. Cousins has as many games under 250 passing yards as he does over 250 passing yards (4). He also has three games with three passing touchdowns and two games with three interceptions this season. With Dalvin Cook on a roll, Cousins hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes in a game since the Vikings’ bye week. Cousins has historically struggled both in primetime games and against the Chicago Bears. In five starts against Chicago, Cousins has thrown for 1,197 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. He has also lost his last three contests against Chicago.

This season, the Bears are utilizing excellent cornerback play from Kyle Fuller and rookie Jaylon Johnson to shut down opposing pass offenses. Chicago has allowed just 14.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. Like Foles, Cousins has some playable upside, but you can likely find a better streaming option on the waiver wire this week.

David Montgomery (RB, CHI)

For David Montgomery to play this week, he would have to pass concussion protocol, which seems unlikely at this juncture. Montgomery has struggled most of the year behind a makeshift offensive line, averaging 3.6 yards per carry and scoring just one touchdown on the ground this year. The Vikings have been a mid-level team against running backs this year, allowing 18.7 points per week to the position. Even if Montgomery could go in Week 10, the matchup, combined with the offensive line’s woes, makes Montgomery an iffy play at best.

UPDATE: David Montgomery is officially out for this week.

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)

The Vikings' potent run game and the emergence of Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith Jr. in the passing game has had an impact on Adam Thielen’s production as 2020 moves along. Thielen hasn’t had more than five targets or three receptions in his last three games. He has also broken 50 yards only once and scored just one touchdown since Week 6. Things won’t get any easier as Thielen will likely see a steady dose of Kyle Fuller on Monday Night. Fuller is playing excellent football this season and has always done well against the Vikings. In 11 career games, Thielen averages 4.2 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 29.1 yards per game against the Bears.

Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)

On the other side of the formation is Justin Jefferson. The rookie from LSU has also seen some struggles since the Vikings’ Week 7 bye, totaling six receptions on eight targets for 90 yards in the last two games. Dalvin Cook’s success running the ball has allowed the Vikings to limit passing plays to try and play to their strengths. Jefferson could struggle this week as well. Jaylon Johnson is having an exceptional rookie season in coverage and figures to be the primary matchup for Jefferson. Worst case scenario is the Bears just leave Kyle Fuller on a side of a field to play defense, meaning they realize that Fuller can guard and erase anyone from the gameplan. Jefferson has upside but is risky in this matchup.

Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)

Chicago keeps trotting Jimmy Graham out there on Sundays and he improbably keeps producing solid weeks. Against the Titans, Graham collected all six of his targets for 55 yards and a touchdown as the Bears came up short once again. Since Foles took over against Atlanta, Graham has seen a minimum of five targets in every game. He has also surpassed 30 receiving yards in six of seven games and has scored twice (not including his two touchdowns against Atlanta).

Minnesota has had success against tight ends this season, allowing an average of 8.8 points per week and just 527 yards and three touchdowns to the position on the season. With the Vikings allowing teams to throw the ball outside the numbers, Graham will likely have to find a way into the end zone to have fantasy relevance this week.

Potential Sleepers

Ryan Nall (RB, CHI)

If David Montgomery isn't good to go, it would seem Ryan Nall is the heir to the Bears' backfield (unless they activate Lamar Miller off the practice squad before Monday’s game). Nall factored in the Bears’ passing game against the Titans once Montgomery was knocked out of the game, catching all four of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. Nall was a solid athlete for his size, running a 4.58 40-yard dash at 6’2 and 234 pounds. Nall will likely split work with someone (ugh… Cordarrelle Patterson…), but he could see enough work in the run game to make him relevant for a spot start in the MOST desperate of situations.

UPDATE: David Montgomery is officially out for this week.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)

After several weeks of not showing up, Anthony Miller has begun to carve out a role for himself in the Bears’ passing game. One week after having eight receptions on 11 targets for 73 yards, Miller caught five of eight passes for 59 yards in a loss to the Titans. Miller has shown the ability to be productive for Chicago in the past (he had 33 receptions and 52 targets for 431 yards and two touchdowns near the end of 2019), so maybe getting less run behind a rookie in Darnell Mooney finally lit a fire under him. The Vikings' secondary is so bad that Miller may have a big game, giving you upside if your team is ravaged by injuries and byes.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)

If Irv Smith Jr. plays after drawing a questionable tag throughout the week with a groin injury, then he will find himself in an advantageous matchup. Despite only playing 38% of the team’s snaps last week (nearly half his previous season-low), Smith Jr. caught two balls for 10 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. Chicago has been solid against tight ends this season (9.3 points per week) but has given up six touchdown receptions to the position this season. Smith Jr. is a risky play, but with his expanding role in the offense, he could pay off in a big way, especially if you are looking for a quick fill in with Travis Kelce on bye.

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