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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Giants and Buccaneers Monday game in Week 11 (2021). Dan Fornek analyzes the MNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
Week 10 provided another entertaining game thanks to an upset victory for San Francisco against the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers were able to generate two quick interceptions in the first quarter, including one pick for a touchdown. The Rams struggled to get their offense going as they adjusted to the loss of Robert Woods along with the limited practice time with Odell Beckham Jr. The 49ers were able to ride solid performances from Elijah Mitchell (27 carries for 91 yards) and Deebo Samuel (five receptions, 97 yards, and two total touchdowns) to a convincing victory. Unfortunately, this week's game looks extremely lopsided on paper.
The Buccaneers head into Week 11 coming off a disappointing loss to the Washington Football Team in Week 10. Tampa Bay’s offense struggled to get any momentum against a Washington defense that hasn’t stopped anybody this season. The Buccaneers will look to get back on track this week behind the arm of Tom Brady a rushing attack headlined by Leonard Fournette. Brady has continued to be stellar this season, throwing for 2,870 yards and 27 touchdowns with seven interceptions in nine games. The combination of Mike Evans (41 receptions, 606 yards, and nine touchdowns) and Chris Godwin (57 receptions, 717 yards, and four touchdowns) have paced the passing game due to injuries to Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Leonard Fournette has continued his stellar postseason run in 2020, carrying the ball 112 times for 486 yards and four touchdowns while adding 38 receptions for 284 yards.
The Giants enter this game coming off their bye week and in desperate need of a win to try and make a run in the NFC. New York has once again been forced to navigate numerous injuries on offense, with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard all missing time at various points throughout the season. Additionally, they have lost three offensive linemen to injury during the season, including their left tackle Andrew Thomas. Because of that, Daniel Jones is once again producing pedestrian stats. Jones has just 2,059 yards and eight touchdowns with five interceptions this season. Barkley’s injury has led Devontae Booker (85 carries, 20 receptions, 476 all-purpose yards, three total touchdowns) to pace the backfield. No receiver for the Giants has more than 43 receptions, 352 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Even with the Giants getting healthy this week, they will face an uphill battle against a superior Tampa Bay offense.
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New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game time: Monday, November 22 at 8:15 p.m.
Game line: Tampa Bay -11.0
Game total: 49.5
Must Starts
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady had a rough day last week against the Washington Football Team, throwing for 220 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in what should have been a smash spot. Bad game aside, Brady has been stellar this season in Tampa Bay. He’s got four games with at least 375 yards passing and five games with four or more touchdowns. Brady will now be looking at a bounce-back game on prime time television against a 3-6 Giants team. New York allows 17.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which is a solid number, but Brady is a no-doubt QB1 any time he takes the field.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Daniel Jones continues to look average in his third year with the Giants, throwing for 2,059 yards and eight touchdowns with five interceptions in nine games. In his defense, it would be hard to be productive given the injuries to the skill players in New York this season. Jones has just one game with over 275 passing yards and two games with multiple passing touchdowns. His rushing upside has also been capped this season as he only has two games over 30 yards. However, this week could potentially be the healthiest the offense has been around him in weeks (assuming Saquon Barkley is back). This game will likely wind up with the Giants playing catch-up, which means plenty of attempts to a relatively healthy complement of weapons. Jones is a high-end RB2 but is worth starting against a defense that allows 18.6 points per game this season.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Leonard Fournette has been an effective running back in Tampa Bay this season while operating as their primary backfield option. Fournette has six games with double-digit carries and five games with at least 50 rushing yards and scored four touchdowns. He’s also averaging 5.3 targets and 4.2 receptions for 31.6 receiving yards per game. While those aren’t stellar numbers, they are good enough to make Fournette a weekly RB2 based on volume. Fournette does give up work in the passing game to Giovani Bernard when he’s healthy, but ultimately he is in a great matchup this week against a Giants defense that surrenders 21 fantasy points per game to running backs, the seventh most in the NFL this season. Fournette is a solid RB2 play in a week with numerous running back injuries and ailments.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Saquon Barkley was finally starting to knock the rust off from his 2020 ACL injury before he sprained his ankle. The fourth-year running back had 29 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns while adding 11 receptions on 13 targets for 117 yards and a receiving score in Weeks 3 and 4. Unfortunately, Barkley stepped on a teammate's ankle in Week 5 after six snaps and hasn’t been seen since. By all accounts, Barkley will be ready to play this week and given his role as one of the few bell cows in the NFL, must be started even in a bad matchup. The Buccaneers are the sixth-best defense in fantasy against running backs, surrendering just 15.8 points per game to the position. However, a back with Barkley’s big-play upside can’t be benched regardless of the matchup.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Mike Evans has received just seven targets in his last two weeks after seeing at least six targets in six of his first seven games. However, he has still been highly productive during that stretch, catching four passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Evans doesn’t always get the volume of other WR1’s, but he can take a deep shot to the end zone at any time and remains one of the best red-zone threats in the NFL year after year. Evans will draw a tough matchup in James Bradberry for most of this game but given his role in the red zone that should be negligible. New York is allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game, the tenth most in the NFL this season. In five career games against the Giants, Mike Evans is averaging 11.8 targets, 6.4 receptions, 116.4 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Chris Godwin has flourished once Antonio Brown started missing games with injury. Since Week 6, Godwin is averaging 10.3 targets, 7.7 receptions, and 102.7 yards per game. Week 10 was the first time Godwin failed to reach double-digit targets, 100 receiving yards, and a touchdown since Week 6. Brown will likely miss this game as well, giving Godwin a chance to have another huge day through the air. Adoree’ Jackson is a difficult matchup for Godwin, but given the high-volume passing offense in Tampa Bay, he remains a must-start every week.
Kenny Golladay (WR, NYG)
Kenny Golladay has had an unimpressive start after coming to New York as a big free-agent signing. Golladay started the season hot (17 receptions on 26 targets for 282 yards) before suffering a knee injury against Dallas in Week 5. Golladay played for the first time since that matchup in Week 5 and totaled just two receptions on three targets for 28 yards on a 55% snap share. Golladay has yet to find the end zone this year, but the bye week hopefully allowed him to get healthy to fill the alpha role he was signed to play. Tampa Bay is allowing 23.0 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, good for the 15th best mark in the NFL this season. Despite the middle-of-the-pack ranking, Tampa lacks strong quarterback play this season, which makes them susceptible to big days from opposing wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG)
Kadarius Toney had an explosive start to his career in Weeks 4 and 5, totaling 16 receptions on 22 targets for 267 yards in two weeks. Since then, a sprained ankle has limited Toney to just nine targets, eight receptions, and 71 yards in his last three games. The bye week has given the rookie a chance to get healthier, which should hopefully boost his productivity once again. Additionally, Sterling Shepard will likely miss this week due to injury, giving Toney a chance to play his ideal position in the slot for the Giants. Toney will be competing for targets with Barkley, Golladay, and Evan Engram, but he offers explosive speed and change-of-direction abilities out of the slot that no other receiver has in New York. Golladay will likely draw the most attention, which could open up plenty of space for Toney to operate in a game the Giants will likely be trailing.
Consider Sitting
Devontae Booker (RB, NYG)
Devontae Booker was able to log a limited practice on Thursday due to a hip issue, but ultimately his fantasy upside hinges on Saquon Barkley’s availability. In the first three games of the season with Barkley active, Booker totaled just seven carries for 22 yards and three receptions for 14 yards. Once Barkley went down against Dallas in Week 5, Booker averaged 15.6 carries, four targets, 3.4 receptions, and 88 all-purpose yards per game. He also scored three touchdowns during that stretch. Even if Barkley is ruled out this week, Booker is more of a grinder and could struggle to find space against a strong Tampa Bay run defense.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Sterling Shepard is Daniel Jones’ security blanket in the passing game, but is struggling with a quad injury and hasn’t logged a practice yet this week. All signs point to Shepard being inactive once again in Week 11.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Antonio Brown hasn’t played since Week 6 due to an ankle/heel injury and isn’t likely to play again in Week 11. Brown was on the practice field on Thursday but wasn’t seen running any routes. If Brown can practice in the next few days, then he has a chance of playing and would be a high-risk FLEX play.
UPDATE: Brown has officially been ruled out.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
After starting the season strong (21 targets, 16 receptions, 184 yards, and four touchdowns in three games), Gronk suffered numerous injuries that forced him to miss the next four games. Gronkowski tried to return in Week 8, but re-aggravated his injury after six snaps and was shut down again. The Buccaneers’ tight end has practiced this week but finds himself in a tough matchup against a defense that is allowing 7.3 points per game to tight ends. Gronk is worth stashing on the bench until he shows he can make it through a full game.
Upside Plays
Giovani Bernard (RB, TB)
Giovani Bernard has a defined role for the Buccaneers as their two-minute no-huddle running back. Bernard has seven games this season with at least three targets and five games with at least a 20% snap share. Bernard doesn’t get a ton of volume, but if the Buccaneers struggle to maintain a lead (or fall behind for the second straight week), then Bernard could factor into the game plan. He’s a high-risk play in PPR leagues only.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Darius Slayton has put together consecutive zeros in fantasy football despite the lack of healthy receivers around him in New York. Slayton operates as a deep threat for the Giants and can have a massive performance at any time. Slayton has three games this season with at least six targets and 50 receiving yards. Slayton is a total boom-or-bust play that would need to break loose for a long gain to have fantasy relevance.
Tyler Johnson (WR, TB)
Tyler Johnson has played in at least 64% of the team’s offensive snaps in his last three games, but only had modest production. Johnson has 10 receptions on 13 targets for 98 yards during that stretch. Johnson has shown the ability to make plays downfield in the past but hasn’t been able to generate much fantasy production despite the absence of Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. With Gronk potentially returning this week, his competition for targets will grow and make him tough to trust. As long as Antonio Brown remains out, Johnson should get the snaps to produce if Tom Brady is forced to look his way.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
It has been tough to trust Evan Engram in recent weeks. In his last two games, Engram has just seven targets, six receptions, and 53 yards. However, Engram has scored twice, salvaging his fantasy value and making him a solid tight end. The return of Barkley, Golladay, and Toney ups the target competition in New York, making Engram a touchdown-dependent option in the passing game. The Buccaneers are allowing just 8.2 points per game to tight ends this season, making Engram a tough to trust outside of being a bye week or injury streamer.
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