RADIO
Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose CStr% could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 18.
Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.
Most fantasy managers tend to look at strikeout rate or swinging-strike rate, as strikeouts have a direct impact on fantasy value. However, called strikes are also important, as pitchers who can get ahead of hitters, either way, put themselves in better situations to succeed. As such, I am going to take a closer look into this metric (CStr%) for this week's article.
The MLB trade deadline has passed, but there may still be time for fantasy managers to make trades to better their teams. Digging into all possible underlying metrics to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates can give savvy fantasy managers the edge for the second half of the season and the playoffs. Let's see what CStr% can tell us!
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CStr% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 7, 2022.
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
8-5, 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 20.0% CStr Rate
Joe Musgrove has once again been a solid fantasy contributor this season, leading the way for the Padres rotation with an 8-5 record and a 3.00 ERA through 19 starts. Part of his success could be attributed to the fact that 1/5 of his pitches have been called strikes, which is the second-highest among qualified starters. How has Musgrove used this to his advantage?
Musgrove has the benefit of having both a high CStr rate and a good swinging-strike rate. He has been able to get ahead of hitters early, as 55% of the hitters he has faced have gone to an 0-1 count. He attacks hitters with various looks, relying on six pitches but throwing a slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, and cutter between 27% and 17% of the time.
Consequently, he has been able to keep hitters off-balance; he has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate with a chase rate in the 87th percent of baseball. He has also been able to maintain a 46.7% swing rate, which is the 12th-lowest among qualified starters.
Musgrove has been everything fantasy managers had hoped for this season. He has done a good job limiting contact through missing bats and avoiding swings. The contact he has allowed has not been damaging, as indicated by his 3.42 SIERA and 3.33 xFIP. He is a high-end fantasy option that fantasy managers can rely on throughout the regular season and into the playoffs.
Chris Bassitt, New York Mets
8-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 19.3% CStr Rate
Chris Bassitt has been a useful fantasy starter for some time now but has only come into the spotlight this season, as he moved from the Athletics to the Mets. He has stepped up to the big stage, compiling a 3.61 ERA with a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 19.3% CStr rate. Is he someone fantasy managers can trust down the stretch and into the playoffs?
Signs point to yes, as Bassitt has a similar profile under the hood to Musgrove's. Like Musgrove, he has been able to get ahead of hitters early, with an 0-1 count occurring with 52.2% of the hitters he has faced. He also employs a varying pitch arsenal, throwing a sinker, slider, cutter, four-seam fastball, and curveball at least 10% of the time.
The big difference between Bassitt and Musgrove is that Bassitt has lived more in the strike zone. 45.8% of his pitches are thrown in the strike zone, which is the third-highest among qualified starters. His 46.4% swing rate is slightly lower than Musgrove's, but his chase rate is only in the 26th percent of baseball. However, he has still managed a 10.9% swinging-strike rate with his 24.3% strikeout rate, so he has found success overall in the zone.
Bassitt may not be as deceptive as Musgrove, but he has gotten similar results while living in the strike zone. He has generated both called and swinging strikes while bringing pitches to hitters in the zone. I also consider Bassitt to be a reliable, high-floor option for fantasy managers for the rest of the season.
CStr% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 7, 2022.
Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners
8-8, 3.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.2% CStr Rate
I have written about Robbie Ray a few times this season for various metrics, as the 2021 CY Young winner has some interesting things going on under the hood. He has compiled a decent 8-8 record with a 3.96 ERA through 22 starts with the Mariners, but his 12.2% CStr rate is the lowest among qualified starters. Is this something fantasy managers should be worried about?
The bottom line here is that a low CStr rate doesn't have to be a worrisome thing, but it could be for Ray. As fantasy managers are well aware, Ray has no trouble racking up strikeouts, and he has a strong 28.1% strikeout rate this season. This is due to his ability to get hitters to swing and miss; his 15% swinging-strike rate is one of the best among starters and his chase rate is in the 70th percentile of baseball.
The potential issue is that Ray doesn't get a ton of called strikes because he doesn't throw pitches in the zone that much. His 39.7% zone rate is the 15th lowest among qualified starters. The inability to hit the zone can lead to walks, and fantasy managers are also aware of Ray's historical issues with them. The good news is that Ray has kept the walks in check to this point. His 8.3% walk rate isn't the best but it is certainly better than his 10% career mark and the 11% mark he had prior to his 2021 season.
Fantasy managers know what to expect from Ray at this point in his career. He will give fantasy managers a ton of strikeouts and plenty of strong starts, but there is always the risk of blow-up starts due to walks and home runs (Ray's batted-ball profile leaves something to be desired).
He has never worked much in the strike zone but has been extremely valuable at times throughout his career. I recognized Ray as a buy-low candidate earlier in the season, and feel that he is still worth the risk for fantasy managers for the rest of the season.
Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets
12-4, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 14.2% CStr Rate
Carlos Carrasco has had an up-and-down season but has been a useful fantasy starter overall. Backed by a strong Mets lineup, he has gone 12-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate through 21 starts. One of his less-impressive metrics is his 14.2% CStr rate, which is the fifth-lowest in baseball. What can fantasy managers expect from Carrasco for the rest of the season?
Carrasco doesn't have overpowering stuff but has found success thanks to a very high chase rate. He has only thrown the ball in the zone 38.6% of the time but has managed an elite chase rate in the 97th percentile of baseball, thanks to his breaking pitches of slider and changeup. This has led to a 13.2% swinging-strike rate, which has helped bolster Carrasco's strikeout rate.
Looking further, Carrasco has generated a league-average batted-ball profile; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 52nd and 54th percentiles of baseball and his average launch angle has been a middling 10.1 degrees. His 3.63 SIERA and 3.51 xFIP further suggest that he has pitched well overall.
Carrasco may not be the most exciting fantasy option, but he does look like a high-floor option for fantasy managers heading towards the playoffs. He has generated a lot of swings and misses out of the zone and has leaned into that, avoiding the strike zone in general. Carrasco's 6.3% walk rate indicated to me that this shouldn't come back to bite him, and I would trust him the rest of the way.
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