Best MLB Home Run Props to Bet Today (5/3)

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/3/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Get our home run prop picks today!

They say, "Saturdays are for dingers," right? Who are we kidding? Every day is for dingers here at RotoBaller as we continue to provide you with our daily home run props every day of the week!

I've got my eyes on five sluggers who I think have a good chance of going deep, and we won't be dipping below the +300 odds mark for this crop of hitters either.

Keep reading to find out my five favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 3, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.

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MLB Prop Bets - Home Run Prop Picks Today

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, May 3:

• Ben Rice, New York Yankees
• Jesse Winker, New York Mets
• Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
• Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

Ben Rice 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ben Rice has eight home runs on the season and just missed another bomb yesterday when he drilled one off the wall. The Yankees' first baseman has been mashing the ball so far this season and should lead off for the Pinstripes today against Zack Littell and the Rays.

Ben Rice SMOKES a double the other way off the wall at 105.4 MPH for the Yankees' first hit of the night🔥#Yankees pic.twitter.com/DXMRo5h99A

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) May 2, 2025

Rice has an elite .324 average and .368 ISO against righties so far this year. He's also pulling the ball 55% of the time, which is a good sign as the majority of home runs are pulled and the Yankees have the short porch in right field as a major advantage for lefty power hitters.

Littell has been struggling this year with hard contact and homers. He was able to limit the Padres in his last outing, but he's still allowed eight home runs already this year and a .574 SLG to left-handed hitters. As much as I like Aaron Judge today, too, Rice has twice the value here as Judge's prop is down to +150.

Jesse Winker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Here's my big-time value pick of the day. It might seem odd to recommend a hitter who has only homered once this season, but I have a few angles on this pick that hopefully add up to a nice payout.

Winker is set to hit in the middle of the Mets' order today. He has been platooning only against right-handers this season, and despite his low average, I think he has an underrated matchup here against Erick Fedde of the Cardinals.

Fedde doesn't miss many bats with a 92.2% Z-Contact% and 7.6% SwStr%. He relies on groundballs to get a lot of his outs and features a two-seamer (or sinker) as his primary pitch. He throws the sinker along with a cutter and slider as 90% of his pitch mix.

Now this goes back some time, but I used to have a tried and true saying of "Winker vs. sinkers" when deciding when to deploy Jesse Winker in DFS. Perhaps he's not the same hitter as he once was in Cincinnati, but his approach at the plate is still the same. He's a great low-ball hitter, and both his FB% (43%) and Pull% (57%) suggest that he has more home runs coming. Players who pull the ball in the air hit more home runs.

And other than a little rain in St. Louis today, it looks like we might just have winds blowing out to right field, too! Oh, and did I mention (for my BvP truthers) that Winker has a .333 AVG and two home runs off Fedde in 12 career at-bats?

Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Suzuki is off to an awesome start to this season with nine home runs already as the Cubs are clubbing their way through the National League. Three of those home runs have come off lefties as Suzuki has an impressive .385 ISO and .769 SLG against them so far this year. It's a small sample size, but last year he finished with a strong .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ against southpaws, too. He draws a lot of walks and strikes out only around 20% of the time against lefties.

Hopefully, he remains aggressive at the plate today against Jose Quintana. While the veteran Quintana has an ERA of 1.14, his underlying metrics are poor, and it's only a matter of time until an opposing offense breaks out against him. He has a 92% Z-Contact% and only a 5.9% SwStr%.

ANOTHER homer for Seiya Suzuki 😤 pic.twitter.com/fYdMJRHTpO

— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2025

Let's roll with the red-hot Suzuki, who has three home runs in his last four games. The matchup is favorable, and the odds make him a very nice value. You simply don't see someone who is near the top of the home run leaderboard with such long odds.

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Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)

I refuse to believe that the Royals' offense is this bad! They let me down last night again, as they let Dean Kremer, a very mediocre pitcher, off the hook. Tonight, they will face the Orioles' fifth starter, Tomoyuki Sugano, who is coming off a shutout of the mighty New York Yankees.

But that does not change my mind on Sugano, he's not a good major league pitcher. He's entirely reliant on one pitch (his splitter) for any success he might have, and the rest of his arsenal is getting hit hard. Even after that strong start, he still has a 5.66 xERA and 11% Barrel%.

The one Royals hitter who I still have some faith in is Witt Jr. He has only three home runs this season, but he's making great contact and barrelling the ball often. Last year, he had one of the best barrel rates in baseball and should have had even more home runs than he did if he lifted the ball more often.

The problem with Witt Jr. as a home run hitter is that he doesn't try to hit them. He simply hits the ball hard to all fields and isn't focused on a launch angle that would produce more home runs. So why bet on him, then? Well, because he can still hit a home run tonight to any field with his elite contact skills against a pitcher who likely won't be able to fool him with an assortment of junk and a bad fastball.

Once Witt Jr. gets hot this season, we aren't going to see him with +300 or better odds most nights, I like the value here.

Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Hendricks' days as a decent MLB starter have been over for a few years. He has predictably struggled in L.A. so far this season to the tune of a 6.65 ERA and 5.70 SIERA. Like the other pitchers we have been targeting, Hendricks lacks any swing-and-miss stuff with just a 6.5% SwStr%, and he allows a 91.2% Z-Contact rate.

All four of the home runs he has surrendered have been to right-handed hitters, so I am going to roll with the Tigers' top right-handed slugger tonight, Spencer Torkelson, rather than someone like Riley Greene (who homered twice last night in the same inning) at lower odds.

Spencer Torkelson gives the @Tigers some insurance with HR No. 9! pic.twitter.com/UQOCQZkXIZ

— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2025

Torkelson checks all the boxes for me with a strong .237 ISO vs. righties, 45% FB%, and 45% Pull%. He's up to nine home runs on the season and hit one already in this series on Thursday night.

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