Hitters Advanced Metrics Leaders for Brls/PA % - Fantasy Baseball Studs and Duds (Week 2)

April 8, 2024

Statcast batter leaders in Week 2 of the 2024 MLB season according to Brls/PA %. Joshua Costello evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Hello, RotoBallers! Welcome to another week in baseball. As the first full week of the year wraps up, I will recap which hitters had the most impactful plate appearances in the past few days. Using Statcast's Barrels per Plate Appearance stat, or Brls/PA %, we can narrow our view to the hitters who are the most locked in to begin the season.

Statcast's Brls/PA % works by dividing the total number of barrels by the number of plate appearances within the given period. The higher the Brls/PA %, the more often the hitter makes ideal contact with the baseball. We will also examine other stats, but the Brls/PA % will be the main focus of this piece.

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Brls/PA % Leaders

Notable Players

Given that it is the beginning of the season, the minimum number of batted ball events, or BBE, needed to qualify for this leaderboard is relatively low. The top two hitters on this list have less combined BBE than the number three hitter. As the season goes on, fewer hitters will qualify, and the list will be more indicative of the true standout hitters. Without further ado, the first hitter we will highlight is Bobby Witt Jr.

The Kansas City Royals shortstop has demonstrated remarkable batted ball data to begin the season. Witt is the only hitter with at least 25 BBE to register a barrel in over 15% of his plate appearances. The young slugger is tied with Christian Walker for the most barrels this season. Witt is also tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most balls hit over 95 mph this season. When he combined his substantial batted ball numbers with his elite speed, Witt could step into the MVP conversation if these numbers were to hold.

Michael Conforto has also gotten off to a strong start this year. Conforto is batting .351 with a 1.118 OPS to begin 2024. The Giants outfielder ranks fifth in Statcast's Brls/PA% stat with 16.2%. The 31-year-old has an xSLG of .709 and a barrel rate of 24.0%, both of which rank in the 97th percentile or higher. Given Conforto's mediocre performances in his last two full seasons, there is reason for pessimism regarding the legitimacy of this start, but it is worth riding while he's hot.

MJ Melendez has always hit the ball hard, but now he's combining that with less swing-and-miss in his game.

Melendez is the second Kansas City Royal highlighted in this piece and one of the three Royals to make the top 25 in Brls/PA%. The young hitters in Kauffman Stadium have been exceptional to begin the year. I chose to shine a light on this Royal because of his drastic drop in strikeout rate to start the season. Last season, Melendez had a strikeout rate of 28.2%, which ranked in the 18th percentile of all qualified hitters. Melendez was not just bad; he struck out more than 80% of qualified hitters in the league.

This season, the Royals slugger has a strikeout rate of 19.4%. Despite having below-average strikeout numbers for each of the past two seasons, Melendez has consistently demonstrated a good eye at the plate. His career walk rate is 11.2%. If his strikeout rate stays around 20% and he continues to mash baseballs at this rate, Melendez could be in for a breakout season.

Jackson Merrill was one of the Padres' top prospects coming into this season, and he is demonstrating why he was ranked so highly. Merrill came in at 21st on our list of the top hitters in Brls/PA% with 11.8%. The 20-year-old outfielder has also collected 11 hits, one home run, and one stolen base in his first 38 plate appearances. On Sunday, Merrill became the second-youngest Padre to collect a four-hit game.

The Padres top prospect is a bundle of potential, but one stat is concerning within his bright red Statcast page. Merrill has a chase rate of 41.7% to begin his young career. While he's hot right now, his 80% chase contact rate is unsustainable. If Merrill continues to swing this freely, his 20.6% strikeout rate will likely climb. The young Padre is making excellent contact with the ball now but will need to focus on taking more pitches out of the zone if he wants to be a consistent hitter.

The last hitter I want to highlight is Corbin Carroll, who has zero barrels in 30 BBE this season. The reigning National League Rookie of the Year has gotten off to a slow start this year, collecting seven hits in his first 42 plate appearances. Carroll was not a world-beater in expected metrics last season but was above average in xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG. The Diamondbacks rookie sensation is yet to crack the 35th percentile in any of those categories this season and has abysmal quality of contact metrics.

Carroll is in the 2nd percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate to begin the season. Despite his poor showing, the D-backs outfielder has proven to be a much better hitter than this in the past. Now, this may be the only buy-low window if any managers are worried about Carroll's performance at the beginning of the year. Some encouraging signs are Carroll's 2.6% strikeout rate and 18.4% walk rate, demonstrating his elite contact skills and plate discipline.

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