RADIO
The Dodgers outfield has continually been a good place to look for outfielders the past few seasons, whether it was Andre Ethier before his decline, Matt Kemp during his super star days, or Cuban sensation Yasiel Puig. You can add another name to that list of Dodger outfielders you should be targeting.
The 22-year-old Joc Pederson is primed to open the season as the Dodgers starting center fielder after tearing the cover off the ball this spring. We all know that spring numbers don't mean much though. So what else has he done? How about slashing .303/.435/.582 with 33 HR, 106 R, 78 RBI, and 30 SB in 553 at-bats at the Triple-A level last year.
I know what some of you may be thinking. Sure, he did well at Triple-A but when he came up to the majors last year he stunk to the tune of .143/.351/.143 with only 1 run scored to show for his 38 at-bats. However, 38 at-bats is an incredibly limited sample size to judge a player who has been a career .295/.398/.511 hitter in the minors.
You also can't discount the great situation that Pederson finds himself in. He'll be hitting in a lineup that includes Jimmy Rollins, Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Howie Kendrick. It wouldn't be surprising to see Carl Crawford have a slight return to form this year either. Pederson may be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup, but it's the bottom of what projects to be a top offensive lineup. It's a great place to go through the bumps and bruises of your rookie year.
It's not all sunshine and rainbows with Pederson though. For starters, the Dodgers Stadium ranked among one of the worst parks for offensive output last season. Additionally, as Pederson has made his way through the minors his strikeout rate has shown a worrying trend of increasing at every level he's reached.
I wouldn't be overly worried though, as he still managed to hit .303 while striking out 26.9 % of the time in Triple-A. Some people would argue that his BABIP is unsustainable, but regression may not be coming as hard as you think when you factor in his strong speed numbers.
In my start-up 12 team dynasty draft Pederson was taken 87th overall. That's a reach for an unknown quantity, especially when you consider he got picked before Christian Yelich, Jayson Heyward, and Matt Kemp.
Pederson should not be taken before the 12th round and that's only if you really believe he will turn into an eventual star. If you're unsure, wait until round 17 or 18. Just be aware someone will probably take the risk before you if you wait that long.The 15th round would be my ideal value for Pederson heading into this year.
That said, the longer the preseason has gone the more I've found myself believing in Pederson. He's projected to hit .232/.319/.404 with 21 homers, 70 runs scored, 68 RBI, and 19 steals. The 21-19 season for a rookie is pretty bold, but the average seems low to me. He'll most likely hit 15-17 home runs this year and swipe at least 15 bags. He may even be better than any other OF3 you may be considering for your roster.
Obviously, I'm very bullish on Pederson if I think that his "struggling" would be a .240 15-15 guy. Just remember if you take the risk on him that he is a rookie and bound to struggle in 2015, but in a dynasty league you're playing for the future as well so don't give up too soon.
