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Laughably bad Monday night, with Atlanta scoring four in the first inning. Then Seattle and Houston piling up 21 combined hits but just seven runs was a gut punch. Will likely be fading the NRFI bets for a bit, but will still continue to target totals and sides and other game/team props.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, April 26. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.15u)
- O/U Record: 8-3 (+4.28u)
- Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
- First 5 Record: 3-2-2 (+.56u)
- Prop Record: 1-4-1 (-1.96u)
- 2021 Total Record: 15-17-3 (-3.65u)
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8 | PIT -109 KCR -104
Kansas City: Jakob Junis; Pittsburgh: Tyler Anderson
Junis had a rough start against the Rays his last time out, allowing five runs in five innings with a 3/3 K/BB. Home/road splits don't seem to bother the righty much, but he has been marginally better against right-handed batters over his career. However, Baseball Savant isn't too positive on the 28-year-old, as he ranks below the 20th percentile in xBA, xSLG, xERA, and his 94 mph average exit velocity is one of the worst in baseball. The Royals' lineup has their moments, and recently has been performing well. Although, when on the road, things seem to unravel. A .189 team average on the road, they have just a .527 OPS with a 54 wRC+ against LHP on the road.
Anderson's been great his last two outings, allowing three runs on seven hits with a 9/4 K/BB over 10.1 IP. A major issue for the southpaw is getting through the order a third time, where opposing hitters have over 1.000 OPS. However, the first two times through a lineup, he has a 3.06 ERA with a .701 OPS. Like the Royals, the Pirates offense has been impressive, overall, to start the year. They'll get a juicy matchup against Junis, as they have a .344 wOBA with a 118 wRC+ against RHP at home, while their .371 BABIP is the highest in MLB, but is obviously due to crash eventually.
Anderson is in solid form right now and while it likely won't last very long, he has a positive matchup against a lineup that has struggled versus LHP. Pittsburgh's lineup should be able to tag Junis for a pair early and let the strong Pirates bullpen to take care of things from there. However, I'm keeping this pick in the first five innings.
Pick: Pittsburgh First 5 ML (-109, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | ATL -160 CHC +140
Chicago: Trevor Williams: Atlanta: Ian Anderson
Williams has been about the same pitcher we saw when he was with Pittsburgh; average stuff, struggles with control at times, but will give five, sometimes six, solid innings of work. However, his Statcast metrics point to some regression coming, as his xERA, xBA, xSLG, among others are below the 40th percentile. Williams has given up two runs or less in three of his four starts, and allowed just one long ball so far, so again, he’s been feasible, but things could start to unravel soon.
Atlanta woke up Monday, following Sunday’s treacherous effort against Arizona by plating eight runs, including four in the first. The Braves have had more than their fair share of success against RHP, especially at home where they’re slashing .251/.352/.483 with a 123 wRC+. The 20 K% and 11 BB % are also two of the better marks in the league, hinting they have the number of RHP.
It’s safe to say the Braves have had their issues to open the year. But this is still one of the most potent offenses in the game and I think Monday showed a turn in the right direction. Williams is a solid piece at the back-end of a rotation, but his history shows that things are actually on a downward trend before they really go wrong and I look for the Braves to get to him before going to the Cubs bullpen, which isn’t prone to issues.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-109, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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