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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 5/01/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
A profitable day last week with our two top picks both banking, but the Twins failed to win and help us bag a hat-trick too. News broke earlier this week that the Twins had only been able to take pre-game batting practice three times all season due to Covid issues. And it's no coincidence they broke out with a 10-run performance on Wednesday just two days after being able to take regular batting practice. But it does serve as a reminder that things take place behind the scenes that we simply won't know about and that can impact the outcome of games.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
O/U Record: 1-2 (-1.13 U)
Runline Record: 0-3 (-2.0 U)
1st 5 Innings Record: 1-0 (+0.87 U)
Prop Record: 4-2 (+2.01 U)
2021 Total Record: 6-8 (-0.75 U)
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYM +102, PHI -112
NYM: Taijuan Walker | PHI: Zack Wheeler
The NL East rivals look like they'll be battling it out all season for a playoff spot. Both teams entered the weekend series one game back from .500 with the Phillies taking game one 2-1 on Friday night. Neither team's offenses have really got going yet with the Phillies averaging 3.73 runs per game and the Mets averaging 2.9. Both teams are also in the bottom half statistically against right-handed pitching (RHP). The Phillies rank 22nd in OPS (.664) and 24th in wOBA (.297) while the Mets rank 24th in OPS (.652) and 20th in wOBA (.293). If Bryce Harper remains out, that Phillies offense looks even more anemic.
On the pitching front, Wheeler is currently sporting a 3.13 ERA from five starts while Walker has a 2.14 ERA from four starts. Walker does have a 4.11 ERA and 4.82 SIERA so we could expect some regression to come at some point. Wheeler's underlying numbers better back up his performances with a 3.55 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA and he's been a consistent source of quality starts. He's had three quality starts already this year (including one against the Mets) and seven of eleven of his outings last year were quality starts.
Pick: Over/Under first 5 innings - Under 4.5 (-134) 1.5 Units
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SFG +150, SDP -170
SFG: Anthony DeSclafani | SDP: Blake Snell
The Giants offense has quietly been very good against left-handed pitching (LHP) since last year. In 2020, they ranked third in wOBA (.358) and second in wRC (102) versus LHP. This year they've not been as great but still rank in the top half in all hitting stats, most notably sixth in ISO (.189) and tied-seventh in wRC (36). On the mound for them, DeSclafani has been excellent with a 1.50 ERA from his five starts. His 3.23 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA are still very good so there shouldn't be an expectation of him falling off a cliff.
The Padres have been solid, if unspectacular to start the season. They rank 11th in OPS against RHP (.695) and are averaging 4.08 runs per game so far. The Padres lost the first 3-game series between the two ball clubs (1-2) with all three games being close and low-scoring affairs. Both of the Giants wins were by a 3-2 scoreline while the Padres win was 3-1. That theme continued on Friday night with the Padres edging out the Giants 3-2.
Both starters did pitch in their earlier series, with Desclafani going five innings and giving up just one earned run in the first game. Snell pitched in the third game of the series and also went five innings and gave up two runs. The Padres bullpen ERA (3.08) is the sixth-best in MLB while the Giants rank 18th (4.23 ERA).
Pick: Moneyline first 5 innings: San Francisco Giants (+148) 0.5 Units
Prop Bets
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
The only team to have scored fewer than the Tigers 75 runs so far is the Mets (58). The Mets have played 20 games, while the Tigers have played 27. Their 8-19 record is the worst in MLB and they also have the highest strikeout rate (K%) in baseball at 30.6% (28.5% K% versus RHP). That was further compounded on Friday with the Yankees running out 10-0 winners and accumulating 18 strikeouts (Gerrit Cole 12, Luis Cessa 2, Wandy Peralta 1 and Lucas Luetge 3).
Jameson Taillon has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year with his 6.23 ERA which is considerably higher than his 2.96 expected ERA (xERA). His xFIP is 3.78, his SIERA is 3.14 and he has a .348 BABIP all emphasizing his bad luck. Taillon has still managed to put up a career-high 28.4% K% and despite failing to go farther than 5.0 IP in any of his four starts so far, he has still managed to strikeout five or more batters in three of his starts.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone stated at the start of the week that Taillon and Kluber are stretched out enough that they can go deeper into games. Kluber promptly had his longest start of the season going 6.2 IP on Tuesday. Providing he doesn't run into trouble, I expect Taillon to complete six innings for the first time this year.
Pick: Taillon over 6.5 K (+114) 1 Unit
