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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 4/17/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Rough Saturday last week. The Giants won by one run after we took them on the runline at -1.5. The Phillies and Braves played out a 5-4 game when we took the under at 8.5 runs. Thankfully, Yusei Kikuchi hit the over in strikeouts to get us our prop bet. So far, we're 2 for 2 with prop bets and as we tread carefully during these early stages, that's something we might want to hone in on.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, Steve will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. Early on in the season, our plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
O/U Record: 0-2 (-2.0 U)
Runline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
Prop Record: 2-0 (+0.97 U)
2021 Total Record: 1-2 (-2.03 U)
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL +120, TEX -140
BAL: Dean Kremer; TEX: Dane Dunning
The Orioles offense has struggled to start the season. They currently rank 25th in batting average (AVG .218), 27th in on-base percentage (OBP .288) and 28th in slugging percentage (SLG .353). Their numbers are worse against right-handed pitchers too. They came into this weekend series having dropped three of four games against the Mariners. That came after winning their first three games of the year then losing eight of their next ten. They took game one of this series 5-2 and now send Dean Kremer to the mound, with his 10.50 ERA from two starts, both of which he only managed to get through three innings.
Meanwhile, the Rangers came into this series having beat the Rays in each of their last three games (taking the series 3-1). That was on the back of being shut out in three of their previous four games which included the Joe Musgrove no-hitter. Despite those offensive struggles, they still rank better than the Orioles; 14th in AVG (.234), 19th in OBP (.308) and 21st in SLG (.370). They also have a starting pitcher, in Dunning, who has given up just one earned run in nine innings (two starts). The Rangers bullpen has been suspect (4.88 ERA, ranks 25th) but they should be good enough to maintain any lead Dunning gives them and shut out the Orioles in four innings on Friday.
Pick: Runline - Texas Rangers -1.5 (+140) 0.5 Units
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI -105, WSH -105
ARI: Luke Weaver; WSH: Erick Fedde
The Nationals are averaging just 3.45 runs scored a game (38 runs in 11 games) despite them ranking 3rd in AVG (.269), 8th in OBP (.331) and 13th in SLG (.390). They dropped game one of this four-game series on Thursday (11-6) before taking game two 1-0 on Friday night, bumping their record to 4-7 to start the year. They have been shut out three times this season but have scored five or more runs in five of their 11 games. Fedde is due to start this game and his last start against the Cardinals (4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K) was considerably better than his first start against the Braves (1.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K). His career ERA is 5.21 so I don't expect his last start to be repeated here.
The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.79 runs a game (67 runs in 14 games) and unlike the Nationals who are hitting for average but not for power, they are very much hitting for power and their 18 homers rank 6th overall. After starting the year with seven road games and a 2-5 record, their offense has come to life at home and scored five or more runs in their six games before being shut out on Friday by Max Scherzer. Fedde is no Scherzer so I expect their offense to get back into the runs column with authority. Saturday's starting pitcher Weaver has had an impressive beginning to the year with a 2.13 ERA from his two starts but has an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.24, an xFIP of 3.93 and SIERA of 3.64 so we can expect his ERA to climb a bit at some point.
Pick: 1st 5 innings Over/Under - Over 4 runs (-115) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara has gone at least six innings in each of his three starts and has 21 Ks in 18.1 IP so far. He's now facing a Giants team who has the second-highest strikeout rate (K%) against right-handed pitching (29.6%). Alcantara has also yet to give up more than four hits in any start and the Giants rank 25th in AVG against right-handed pitching (.203). The over in Ks and under in hits look solid for the Marlins starter. I prefer the Ks if you only want to go with one, hence my units used for each pick.
Pick: Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts (-130) 1 unit and under 4.5 hits allowed (+130) 0.5 units
