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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/19/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Last week ended with a bit of luck on an under, but baseball is a game that can be just as ruthlessly unlucky so I'll take my hits where I can get them. Overall, it's been a brutal start to betting the MLB season. It's just three weeks into the season but we've already seen some many different scenarios play out that verifies that baseball is the gift that keeps on giving. Today we have a small slate of games, so it’ll be a little tougher to find value.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, April 19. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-2.15u)
O/U Record: 4-2 (+1.78u)
Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.76u)
Prop Record: 0-2-1 (-2u)
2021 Total Record: 9-12-3 (-3.99u)
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
O/U: 8 | STL -113 WSH +100
St. Louis: Jack Flaherty; Washington: Joe Ross
We're diving into a hot new prop market with our first bet of the week. Inning props have taken off in terms of interest and profitability since sports betting became legal in a handful of states.
Flaherty's on a downhill trend and fast. After an impressive 2019 season, things haven't been the same for the righty. Despite a 4.11 ERA through 15.1 IP this year, he's been impressive in his first time through the order. Allowing just a .199 wOBA and one run scored in his first time seeing a lineup, Flaherty falls off hard once an offense has seen him. The Cards' offense has been going through a weird patch; they scored 14 runs on Tuesday and nine runs Saturday, but in the three other games of their last five, they've scored just twice.
Ross has yet to allow a run through the first 11 innings of his season, a stat that will surely change soon. He's limiting hard contact but hitters aren't fooled much with just a 20 Whiff % and 26 Chase %, but based off his past, those numbers should improve with time. Through his first two starts, he's allowed just two hits and one walk in his first time through the order. The Nationals lineup has boasts Juan Soto and Josh Bell but as a unit they're carrying just a .301 wOBA, .126 SIO, and an 84 wRC+.
Both arms here are the key, as Flaherty has a career 1.99 ERA his first time through the order, while Ross carries a 2.43 ERA in that scenario. While both lineups have some fire power, I'm riding on a quiet first frame.
Pick: Total Runs Inning 1 Under 0.5 (+104, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 8.5 | LAA -213 TEX +193
Texas: Kohei Arihara; Los Angeles: Dylan Bundy
Arihara finally looked like he belonged in his lst start, throwing five scoreless frames with five strikeouts and no walks. Overall, he’s been respectable, allowing just five earned runs in 14.2 IP, but that could change soon. He’s getting pounded, allowing an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph and has already been barreled up seven times. The Rangers lineup will look to finally get him some run support, as his first three starts haven’t provided the best results. So far, on the road against RHP, the Rangers have performed quite well, holding a .706 OPS with a league-high .375 BABIP, however, the power hasn’t shown up yet with just a .110 ISO as a unit. A negative here is the 30 K% against righties, which should come as no surprise.
Bundy has been steady to open the year and had the metrics to back it up. He boasts a 3.32 ERA over 19 IP with a 22/5 K/BB. Interestingly enough, all three home runs the righty has allowed have come in his two home starts, a trend that dates back to last year where four of the five long balls he allowed came at home. An incredibly small sample to work off of, but worthy of a note nonetheless. The Angels lineup will be fresh, if anything, coming off their previous two games with Minnesota being postponed due to the Twins’ COVID issues. Through their seven home games, they average the second highest runs per game with 6.1. As the hosts, they hit RHP at a .260 clip with a .741 OPS and a 112 wRC+. Solid output but definitely room for improvement.
After both pitcher’s most recent outings, some could see this as a sneaky pitcher duel. I see the opposite. Bundy has great metrics, but his vulnerability to the long ball at Angel stadium of Anaheim gives the Rangers LHH-heavy offense some upside on the road. On the other side, the Angels are ready to play ball again and should be able to take advantage of Arihara’s hard contact issue.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+100 Barstool Sportsbook [PA]) 1 Unit
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