MLB Betting Picks (9/1/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

September 1, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 9/1/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

Last week ended on a weird note for our MLB betting articles, as there were many games that were postponed due to the boycotts around the league. Vegas was waiting until nearly 10am EST to post lines and that made it tough for me personally to get anything out, but I did get some plays out on Twitter Friday. We're semi back to normal this week (Oakland/Seattle series has had several games postponed due to a COVID-19 case for the A's).

• Friday, Aug. 28: 1-1 (-.1 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 17-20-2 (-5.16 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Tuesday, September 1st. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

St. Louis Cardinals (-157) at Cincinnati Reds

O/U: 8.5

STL : Kwang-hyun Kim, CIN: Sonny Gray

Kim has been great through three starts, allowing just one earned run and nine hits in 15.2 innings. But no one expects much more from the 32-year-old southpaw. He'll battle Sonny Gray who has been outstanding, allowing more than two runs just once in seven starts to go with a 55/15 K/BB. The Cards will be a tough opponent, a they have a 12 BB% against RHP but just a .703 OPS and 99 wRC+. Cincinnati has had many ups-and-downs this year, but they are quite solid at home, especially against LHP. Since August 10, the Reds have a .927 OPS and an absurd .396 ISO as hosts against LHP.

Cincy has been a mixed bag, but Eugenio Suarez is starting to find his groove and it's only a matter of time before the rest of the bunch comes along. They're in a good spot against a pitcher who won't continue on the pace he is on. Add in that the Reds average over five runs per game at home and this is a no brainer.

Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Over 4.5 (-107, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-148)

O/U: 8.5

WSH: Patrick Corbin, PHI: Aaron Nola

This is a game that's set to be a doozy of a pitching matchup. These two squared off on Aug. 26 and and both performed well. While Nola has been pitching better overall than Corbin this year, the Nats know they'll get quality innings out of the southpaw. Corbin has struggled with the long ball this year, giving up one homer in five of six starts, but his 34/8 K/BB is serviceable. Nola has far more strikeout upside, but has also struggled keeping the ball in the yard, allowing six home runs through his first 36 innings.

The Phils have been mashing LHP pretty well throughout August, carrying an .850 OPS, .238 ISO, and a 127 wRC+. The Nats have been solid against RHP themselves, carrying a .762 OPS and .153 ISO in August, but they're even better against them on the road with an .834 OPS, .160 ISO, and 127 wRC+ in the situation they have Tuesday.

Coming into this series, Washington was 5-0 when considered a road underdog this season, and while they did lose as an underdog Monday, Corbin is a much more reliable arm that Erick Fedde. The Nats will be relying on him and the lineup to get to Nola quickly and get into their bullpen. I think they're able to do it.

Pick: Washington ML (+130, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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