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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/4/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!
We opened the second full week yesterday and it's still hard get a true grip on how games are rolling. Pitchers' leashes are shorter than ever, while some guys are dropping like flies, and it's not necessarily always COVID related. For the most part, hitters have remained at a big advantage and the teams we knew would be good, are actually good (see Yankees, Twins, and Dodgers). Nevertheless, be glad we have baseball!
- Friday, July 31: 1-1 (-.04 units)
- 2020 Season Total: 5-4-2 (+0.55 units)
We move onto another day and another slate of games in a season clouded by a pandemic that makes everything questionable. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but if you look in the right spots and know what value you're looking for, you can sometimes enjoy betting on sports.
Myself, along with Tommy Bell have been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!
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Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers (-112)
O/U: 8.5
CHW: Lucas Giolito, MIL: Brandon Woodruff
Giolito posted a 2.83 ERA on the road in 2019, backing it up with a 3.01 FIP, 1.06 WHIP while strand ing 80% of runners. The 26-year-old is finally entrenching himself as a MLB ace. His last time out, he tossed a scoreless, six inning outing on the road against Cleveland. The White Sox lineup finally has some back up, scoring over one run more than they did in 2019 (4.4). Seven regular starters are hitting over .280 with nine guys hitting a homer already. They hit .251 against RHP in 2019, but had just a .301 wOBA, one o the league's worst numbers.
Woodruff might be one of the most underrated arms in the National League. If it weren't for an injury in July 2019, he was working towards at least Cy Young discussions. He gets the ball at home where he went a perfect 9-0 in 2019 with a 3.06 ERA and a 28 K-BB%. He held opponents to just a .271 wOBA at Miller Park, which speaks for itself. This will be just their second game at home, but things have been hit-or-miss so far. The Brew Crew have plated six or more in half of their six games, and that's without the help of Christian Yelich, who is hitting under .100. They did just lose Lorenzo Cain for the season (opted out - COVID), so they'll need some others to start to step up.
With Woodruff's success at home, this is fantastic value on the Brewers. Even against an arm like Giolito, the Brewers' offensive struggles don't worry me too much, as it's only a matter of time before they really get going.
Pick: Milwaukee ML -112 (Fanduel) 1 Unit
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (-148)
O/U: 8
TEX: Lance Lynn, OAK: Jesus Luzardo
Lynnis off to a blazing hot start, throwing his first 12 frames without allowing a run on just three hits with a 17/6 K/BB. He struggled a bit with the long ball on the road last year, allowing 14 of his 21 homers as a visitor, but against Oakland he was strong. He went 2-1 in four starts, allowing 14 runs, but eight of them came in one April start. In the other three outings, he posted a 28/4 K/BB while allowing just one homer.
He'll hope for some more run support than the Rangers have been giving, but luckily they've been better on the road thus far. As of this writing, they've played just three road games but plated 14 runs (nine came on Sunday). Joey Gallo is the only starter with an average higher than .200, and he has three homers with eight RBI. There is talent here, but vets like Todd Frazier, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo need to be better.
The A's look to their top prospect Jesus Luzardo to make his first MLB start Tuesday. The southpaw has made a pair of long relief appearances thus far and has been decent, allowing three runs (one earned) over 6.2 innings with a 7/3 K/BB. At just 22, Oakland is looking to the youngster to eventually bolster the rotation, but in a weird season like this, it will be interesting to see how he handles his first start.
Oakland's lineup has been consistent if nothing else. They've averaged just over three runs per game and scored three or more in seven of their nine games. However, guys like Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, and Khris Davis have been dreadful, combining to go 9-for-72 (.125). That won't get the job done long-term. They hit just .240 against RHP at home in 2019, but did carry a .322 wOBA and slug 88 homers as hosts.
So we're pitting a veteran with at least *some* recent success against an opponent at their own field versus a hyped rookie making his first major league start? The lineups are more comparable right now than some might think so this is purely based on starting pitching. I'm not surprised that Oakland is favored here, but I’ll be looking for the Rangers to spoil Luzardo’s socially distant parade.
Pick: Texas ML +128 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8.5
BOS: Nathan Eovaldi, TB: Charlie Morton
Eovaldi has been solid through his first two starts of 2020, and now he's forced to be the Red Sox's ace with Eduardo Rodriguez out for the year (COVID). He's made nine starts at Tropicana Field in his career with a 4.40 ERA and a 50/10 K/BB over 47 innings. Following his dreadful 2019, we'll need to see more from the 30-year-old, especially against a tough Rays team.
He'll hope for the best out of his offensive backup. Aside from Xander Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez, no every day player is performing out of his shoes. Kevin Pillar is hitting .387 with four doubles, but it's only a matter of time before he cools off. The Sox averaged a .322 wOBA against RHP on the road a year ago, but without Mookie Betts, this offense is definitely not as lethal.
Charlie Morton has had an interesting start to 2020, allowing six runs on opening day, but followed it up by holding the Braves to just two runs in five innings his last time out. The 36-year-old was incredible at home last year, going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA while allowing an opponent slash line of just .194/.260/.302. He'll have his hands full with Boston but it's nothing he hasn't seen before.
The Rays started the year off at home and the lineup took advantage, averaging 6.6 rpg over their first five as hosts. While they cooled off recently on the road, you know they're ready to come back. Brandon Lowe has been the best (and honestly the only) bat worth noting with two homers and eight RBI. However, there are four other regulars with at least five RBI so far.
Both teams are fresh following a day off. Boston has the offensive advantage, while Tampa Bay has the pitching advantage while also playing in their own ballpark. It's tough to bet against the Electric Stuff of Charlie Morton and we have no reason to here. He'll challenge the Red Sox, while the Rays are able to tag Eovaldi.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1 (-114, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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