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Things definitely started off on the wrong foot when Miami scored eight runs in the first three innings, completely destroying the F5 under. I don't regret that play, Nate Pearson just got pounded. However, Minnesota made things better, beating the over themselves and early. The Twins are certainly a dangerous offense but this was just too good of a matchup for them to not score a bunch of runs. We only have six games for Thursday's slate so it will definitely be an interesting day of baseball.
- Wednesday, Aug 12th: 1-1 (-.2 units)
- 2020 Season Total: 9-13-2 (-4.54 units)
I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it. We finally have sports back and it's been a blast finally being able to research team trends.
Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Thursday, August 13th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!
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O/U: 8.5
SD: Chris Paddack, LAD: Julio Urias
Paddack is in a post-hype season, and so far he's been solid. A 2-1 record and 3.18 ERA through 22.2 innings, the righty is expected to lead the Padres to a shortened season playoff appearance. He's built up a 21/4 K/BB but still is prone to the long ball, serving up four homers already. His 3.87 FIP is solid, but he's getting hit pretty hard, ranking in the lower half of Barrel %, Hard Hit %, and xSLG. Offensively, the Padres have averaged over 5.6 runs over the L3 coming into Wednesday. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers have been the main catalysts, but Jake Cronenworth is a nice sleeper candidate that pitchers don't seem to have an answer for.
Urias is quite the youthful match for a guy like Paddack. The 24-year-old threw just short of 80 innings last year and is a key part of the Dodgers rotation now. He's silenced the Giants twice, and held the DBacks to just two over six innings, his longest outing in 2020. While the Padres lineup is a different challenge, the southpaw has done a great job limiting hard contact so far but it has affected his upside, as he has just a 10/6 K/BB. LA's star-studded lineup has lived up to it's billing thus far, however, they could be better at home. A team slash line of .242/.333/.411 is solid at Dodgers stadium, but a .263 BABIP leaves some room for improvement.
The Dodgers have averaged just 1.6 rpg in the F5 at home this season, while San Diego averages 2.6 on the road, but have averaged over five rpg in the F5 of their L3. On the full game, the Dodgers average just under five runs at home, so once they get into the pen, they do some more damage. Paddack and Urias will be a great matchup but I give the early advantage to Paddack.
Pick: Padres F5 ML (+116, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-186)
O/U: 9.5
BAL: Thomas Eshelman, PHI: Jake Arrieta
Eshelman has limited major league experience but what he has under his belt hasn't been good. Just on the surface, he's served up 14 homers and carries a 25/15 K/BB in 43.1 innings. He lasted four frames and gave up two runs on five hits in a start against the Nationals August 8. Statcast says he's been just awful, hosting a .338 xBA, .556 xSLG, with a 41 Hard Hit %. The Orioles lineup has surprised some folks, averaging five runs per, including over 6 rpg on the road. Renato Nunez and Anthony Santander have been the big bats to watch, but as a team they're actually quite impressive against RHP on the road thus far. They lead the league with a .300 AVG, .515 SLG, an .875 OPS, and a 142 wRC+.
Arrieta looked great against the Braves his last time out, punching out six in six scoreless inning. His control hasn't been an issue, allowing just one walk in 11 innings, but he's drawing some luck, stranding over 97% of runners thus far. The 34-year-old is getting hit harder than ever (46.7 Hard Hit%) and has an xSLG of .433. The Phillies lineup has seen production from a handful of guys, but outside of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Didi Gregorius they need more. That's not to say those guys aren't doing enough, because Philly is averaging over five runs per game. They're pretty comfortable at home, hitting at a .239/.339/.459 slash mark to go with a .220 ISO and a .344 wOBA.
Neither of these pitchers move the needle, even with Arrieta coming off a solid outing. Both teams are healthy and have been able to put up runs over the last handful of games and it should continue here. I see this total jumping to 10 by first pitch.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-113, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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