MLB Betting Picks (8/12/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 12, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/12/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

Woof, maybe I need to go back to the KBO (/s). The Bal/Phi under was safe until the bottom of the eighth, after which 11 runs were scored into extra innings. What a debacle. Later on, the Rangers were able to tag Marco Gonzales for four runs early, but they didn't score after he left the game. Unfortunately the Mariners were only able to plate two. My plays will remain small until I can get a grip on the season, so I'd fade for the time being.

• Tuesday, Aug 12th: 0-2 (-2 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 8-12-2 (-4.34 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it. We finally have sports back and it's been a blast finally being able to research team trends.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Tuesday, August 12th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays (-167)

O/U: 8.5

MIA: Jordan Yamamoto, TOR: Nate Pearson

Yamamoto is an underrated arm for Miami but due to their early covid shutdown, we've only seen him once this year. He gave up four runs in that four-run outing August 6. While this is a weird scenario with the Blue Jays playing at their Triple A ballpark, Yamamoto was astronomically better on the road last year. A 2.95 ERA and .147/.242/.301 opponent slash line over 39.2 road innings is pretty impressive, even over a small sample. The Marlins have stunned those around baseball with their strong return to the field. However, they haven't had great success against RHP,  striking out at a 26.5% clip with a .238 avg, .691 OPS, and a .303 wOBA.

Pearson is the one player in this matchup who genuinely benefits from the Blue Jays playing at their Triple A field, mainly because just he threw 18 innings here last season. Sure it's a small sample, but a relative comfort nonetheless. He's also been good through his first 10 MLB innings, holding a 2.70 ERA and a 3.83 FIP. He got touched up against Atlanta his last time out, but he's Toronto's top prospect for a reason. Their lineup is also filled with plenty of young guys who just came through Sahlen Field, and their walkoff win on Tuesday was a good start to their "home games" there. However, they're struggling against RHP as well, hitting a measly .224 with a .297 wOBA. Toronto is loaded with potential but the wacky start to their season could easily take it's toll on a young roster.

These teams combine for 4.6 runs through the first five innings of games this season, but Miami averages just 2.6 F5 runs on the road. The Triple A ballpark is going to continually be an adjustment for opponents coming into Buffalo, but that will be a big benefit for Pearson in this matchup, so we'll keep the bullpens out of it.

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Minnesota Twins (-139) at Milwaukee Brewers

O/U: 8.5

MIN: Kenta Maeda, MIL: Eric Lauer

Maeda has made a pretty seamless transition to the American League, going 2-0 through three starts and carrying a 2.65 ERA through 17 innings. His 3.20 FIP is quality and his statcast metrics say he is actually pitching that good, but his .147 BABIP is due for some regression. Offensively, the Twins have gotten a nice surge from Eddie Rosario, who's hit homers in each of the last two games. As a team they've done well on the road, averaging over five runs a game while hitting .236 but slugging 17 homers, however they have some work to do against LHP, hitting just .234 with a .288 wOBA.

The Brew Crew started clicking around the fifth inning of Tuesday's game, finishing with a 6-4 victory. It's important to note that the Twins utilized a bullpen game Monday, so they're forcing Maeda to put forth his best. Milwaukee hasn't had their best so far, but yesterday was a solid start. Christian Yelich is still looking to really get going in 2020, but they average 3.8 rpg overall and 3.5 rpg at home. They'll need Lauer to forget about his clunker on the hill against the Reds August 7. The southpaw surrendered ssix runs over just three innings. He's thrown just 5.2 innings total but he's getting hit around the yard with a .357 BABIP and has allowed an average launch angle of 30 degrees!

Maeda gives the Twins a huge boost on the hill but he’s gotten some luck to roll his way thus far. While Milwaukee's offense is a shell of the last few years, they still have some bats who can cause problems. Then we have the Twins who might not have favorable splits in this spot, but I'm going to trust the talent against Lauer and expect some runs on the board again.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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