MLB Betting Picks (8/11/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 11, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/11/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

We're here for a new week and things around the league are starting to take shape. Through each game, we're able to start putting more substance behind 2020 numbers, while weening ourselves off of 2019 totals. I've certainly been very up-and-down capping games thus far, with last week ending on a rough note.

• Friday, August 7th: 0-1 (-2 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 8-10-2 (-2.34 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is most likely going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it. We finally have sports back and it's been a blast finally being able to research team trends.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Tuesday, August 11th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-195)

O/U: 9

BAL: Alex Cobb, PHI: Zack Wheeler

Cobb has been Baltimore's ace thus far with a 2.51 ERA through his first 14.1 innings, but Statcast says we can expect a sharp drop. He's in the lower-half of the league in Exit Velo, Barrel %, xwOBA, and xSLG. However, it's hard to discount his work thus far; holding down a 15/6 K/BB. Offensively, the Orioles are doing some nice things, averaging 4.6 runs per game (5.7 rpg on the road). Seven regulars have multiple homers, led by Renato Nunez's five. As a team, they're hitting RHP pretty well, with a .249 avg and .323 wOBA.

Wheeler has been solid since joining the Fightin Phils, going 2-0 against the Marlins and Yankees. He's held a 2.08 ERA and 6/4 K/BB through 13 innings and has some good metrics to back it up. Offensively, the Phillies have struggled a touch but have been decent hitting RHP. Coming into Monday, they were hitting .238 with a .315 wOBA against righties, but then they dropped 13 runs on the Braves last night. Hitters like J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins are a pitchers' worst nightmare but they still seem to be working on some consistency issues. They've averaged just 3.5 rpg at home before Monday's outburst.

Runs flew off the board for Philly on Monday, but that hasn't been the case so far this season. While Baltimore's offense has shocked some to start the season, both pitchers here have been in solid form and both lineups have more to prove in terms of consistency.

Pick: Under 9 (-113, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-138)

O/U: 8

SEA: Marco Gonzales, TEX: Mike Minor

Gonzales has been enjoying a solid start to 2020 after finishing off a career 2019 season. Over 17.2 innings, he holds a 17/2 K/BB with a 3.06 ERA. There's some regression expected here, as the 4.09 xFIP would suggest but he's got a solid matchup against a lineup led by left-handed hitters. The Mariners haven't been able to give much run support, hence the 6-11 record but they brought out the bats on Monday. Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, and Kyle Lewis have been tearing the cover off the ball recently, so if they can get some extra aid from their lineupmates, Seattle's .204 avg against LHP should see some improvement.

Minor got tagged in each of his last two outings against the Giants and Athletics, but both were also on the road. His home ERA was about a half-point lower at home in 2019, but the Rangers are in a new home ballpark this season so he's likely still getting used to the mound differences. This Rangers lineup has some real fire power with Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, and Todd Frazier, but they have some work to do against LHP. They're hitting just .233 with a .307 wOBA against southpaws this season; however, they've struggled to adjust to the new Globe Life Park, slashing just .192/.276/.314 as a team which will not get the job done.

This is a pretty even matchup on the hill, but Texas hasn't been themselves in their new home ballpark. Gonzales isn't expected to continue the pace he is on, but the southpaw is throwing the ball well recently. Look for the Mariners to give him the necessary backup to take game two of this series.

Pick: Seattle ML +120 (Fanduel) 1 Unit, 

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