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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/29/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!
The Cubs got us off to a good start Tuesday by taking care of business against the Reds, mainly thanks to Javier Baez's two homers. Meanwhile, The Twins gave us a nice scare after plating five in the second, but only four more runs were scored the rest of the way. In Los Angeles, things looked a little slow in the early going but the Angels took off and handled things on their own, winning 10-2. The first sweep of the 2020 MLB season!
- Tuesday, July 28: 3-0 (+2.63 units)
- 2020 Season Total: 3-1-1 (+1.63 units)
With such odd circumstances entering this season, it's imperative to be smart with these plays off the get-go. Some players just started practicing a week ago after returning from a COVID diagnosis, while others just flat out might not be themselves following such a long layoff. I completely understand the excitement to be betting on baseball again, but be sure to not mismanage your bankroll early. As the season progresses, I'll likely have more plays, but for now I'm going to limit my plays to a couple a night.
Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!
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Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves (-129)
O/U: 8.5
TB: Charlie Morton, ATL: Mike Soroka
Morton has been one of the steadiest horses in the game over the past few years. He had a rough first outing but that's almost to be expected. It's preferable to get Ground Chuck at home, but he wasn't bad on the road last year, holding hitters to a .238/.308/.382 slash line with just a .297 wOBA. The lineup might be a bit worrisome at times, but Brandon Lowe and Hunter Renfroe have been the early catalysts.
Soroka is still so young but is being asked to shoulder leading the Braves rotation and has done quite well with that role. He held the Mets scoreless over six frames on the road on opening day. In terms of ERA, he was significantly better on the road versus at home in 2o19; a 1.55 ERA on the road and a 4.14 ERA at home. Offensively, give these Braves have some frightening young bats. However, Ronald Acuna Jr. is still trying to find his footing at the dish and oddly enough Dansby Swanson has been the team's best bat.
Morton doesn't miss in consecutive games often. Sure, the Braves lineup is as tough as they come but they're a bit down right now. I'll always target good pitching over good hitting but as bullpens are still trying to get acclimated around the league, I'm looking at the first five innings here.
Pick: Tampa Bay First 5 ML (+110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Chicago White Sox (-115) at Cleveland Indians
O/U: 9.5
CHW: Lucas Giolito, CLE: Zach Plesac
The White Sox got down early Tuesday and couldn't climb back but they did out-hit Cleveland eight-to-six. Jose Abreu left the yard while Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert both registered knocks. This offense has a ton of potential, especially when Yasmani Grandal is in the lineup. Lucas Giolito will look to make up for his total dud against the Twins to start the year. He'll be on the road where his earned run average was over a point lower than at home in 2019. The righty generates a ton of strikeouts when he's on his game, and we know he's better than what he showed on opening day.
Cleveland is another offense that is just loaded with bats that make pitchers work. Following Monday's rainout, they dropped three in the first inning Tuesday and didn't look back. Carlos Santana doesn't seem to age (homered Tuesday), while Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor team up to form arguably the best two-three-four spot in any lineup. However, they hit just .243had an 87 wRC+ against RHP and at home a year ago. Zach Plesac provides Cleveland with a solid five starter but he was a touch worse in Progressive Field last year. He also had success his first time through the order before faltering the second and third time through, so the 25-year-old might have his hands full with Chicago.
Both offenses are more than capable here, with Cleveland having a slight advantage. Therefore, I look at this as Giolito against Plesac and the choice is obvious, especially with Plesac's struggles seeing the order multiple times. Since Chicago's bullpen had to throw 4.1 innings Tuesday, we'll stay away from any late-game theatrics.
Pick: White Sox First 5 ML -121 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
Washington Nationals (-167) at Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5
WAS: Max Scherzer, TOR: Nate Pearson
The Nationals get the rare road game in their home park on Wednesday and Max Scherzer is the arm the Nationals want to revenge their 5-1 loss to Toronto on Tuesday. The righty gave up four to the Yankees on opening night, but still struck out 11 in 5.1 innings. On his own mound in 2019, he held hitters to a .224/..272/.378 slash line with a 28 K-BB%. Offensively, the Nats have struggled a bit, sans their 9-run outburst July 25. However, six guys are batting at least .286 so it's only a matter of time before the reigning champs catch back up.
Pearson, the Blue Jays top prospect, makes his MLB debut Wednesday and the kid is legit. A power arm (once hit 104 mph) with a great changeup and pair of breaking balls, this 23-year-old is supposed to complete the youth movement in Toronto. He'll certainly need some help from the lineup, but the Jays hit just .234 and had a BABIP of .276 against RHP in 2019, both league lows. Thye've averaged 4.2 runs per game so far, but it doesn't get much harder than Scherzer.
Regardless of the pedigree Pearson carries as a prospect, it's tough to bet against Mad Max in this situation. The Blue Jays are one of the league's worst against RHP and Washington will be out to show that their lineup can put runs on the board to backup their ace.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (-104, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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