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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/23/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!
The time has finally come! After weeks (and months) of thinking we'd never see Major League Baseball's Opening Day in 2020, July 23rd comes along to save the day. Man, what a weird season this is going to be though. I'm sure I don't need to run the circumstances by you, but if you need a refresher, here you go!
- 2020 Season Total: 0-0
With such odd circumstances entering this season, it's imperative to be smart with these plays off the get-go. Some players just started practicing a week ago after returning from a COVID diagnosis, while others just flat out might not be themselves following such a long layoff. I completely understand the excitement to be betting on baseball again, but be sure to not mismanage your bankroll early.
Now onto the fun stuff! Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Finally, we're here!
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O/U: 7.5
NYY: Gerrit Cole, Washington: Max Scherzer
Gerrit Cole gets his first taste of Yankee Stadium after a nice layoff from the first spring training. Sure Yankee Stadium isn't the pitchers park that PNC Park or Minute Maid Park were, but Cole is the best of the best. In his two prior debuts with Pittsburgh and Houston combined, he went 13.1 innings and allowed just two runs with a 13/3 K/BB. Offensively, the Yankees boast arguably the most potent offense in all the game. Guys like Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton are some of the most dangerous at their positions. The Yankees hit .265 against RHP a year ago, but their 220 homers against righties in 2019 were tops in the league. However, the lineup was better against RHP on the road than at home, so even against a guy like Mad Max, it's hard not to lean their way.
It's fitting that Max Scherzer will throw the first pitch of the 2020 MLB regular season. He's been one of the most dominant pitchers of the last two decades and even coming off a year where he dealt with injuries, Scherzer is still someone to be feared. He has a sub-three ERA and .262 wOBA at home as a member of the Nationals. Offensively, the Nats carry two of the most exciting players at their positions in Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but consider they lost Anthony Rendon. Washington scored the fourth most runs and had the fourth best average at home a year ago, but surely the loss of Rendon will be felt.
Honestly, who can truly predict what's going to happen this year? So for now, we stick with that we know. Cole is a generational talent backed by a lineup that could make even the best pitchers get nervous. While I doubt Scherzer is worried, the Bronx Bombers have everything to prove by making a statement this year. They'll get a tough test, but I trust in the Yankees to make a statement early.
Pick: New York Yankees -1 (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit
San Francisco Giants at LA Dodgers (-315)
O/U: 8
SF: Johnny Cueto, LAD: Clayton Kershaw
San Francisco is in for a rough year. Johnny Cueto lines up as their "ace" and that's following a year where he pitched just 16 innings following a return from Tommy John surgery. Sure, the extra time off this year might have benefitted the 34-year-old but he's given up 16 runs in his last five starts against the Dodgers.
The organization didn't make many moves to improve the lineup, and now that Buster Posey is sitting out the year, they're in even more trouble. Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski, and Hunter Pence are the guys who will need to pull their weight all year, but a start against Clayton Kershaw isn't ideal. The Giants hit .248 and scored 407 runs on the road last year, but their opposition held them to just five runs in 19 innings last year.
Kershaw might be getting up there in age (32 years old), but the southpaw has shown no signs of slowing up. Over 102.2 innings at home in 2019, he held opponents to a 2.89 ERA; however, he did allow 18 of his 28 home runs and had a .301 wOBA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw is one of the more dominant arms of the last decade and now he's facing a derelict lineup to open the season.
The Dodgers lineup was already quite stacked and then they went and traded for Mookie Betts in the offseason. Well they just signed Betts to a long-term extension so it's safe to say ownership is ready for this team to be competing long into the future. Offensively, the Dodgers were one of the better teams at home a year ago, hitting .264 with a 143 home runs and a .343 wOBA. Betts mixed with Cody Bellinger alone makes this lineup one of the best in the game, but facing an aging arm like Cueto is ripe picking for LA.
The Dodgers averaged 5.4 runs per game at home a year ago. Vegas is giving Cueto too much credit in this spot, in my opinion, and we have just no proof that he will be ready to compete against this deadly LA lineup. San Fran will certainly have their hands full but their key pieces should be able to string together a few, even if it's after Kershaw exits the game.
Pick: Over 8 (-104, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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