RADIO
Welcome to the second season of this series where I comb through the minor league leaderboards to see who is having a particularly impressive start to the season. I then try to break down whether the performance is for real and whether or not this player should be somebody that we should have on our radars in redraft leagues. Since many prospects of all levels are rostered in dynasty formats, we're going to stick to redraft formats when looking at the value here.
My hope for it is to operate a bit like the Fringe Prospects article that Alex Chamberlain used to run which I always felt was a great way to put unheralded prospects on our radar. Although I will be including some guys who are more well-known in prospect circles just in case they are not well known to all readers.
When I ran this piece last year, I was hoping to identify some hot-hitting minor leagues who were not on many top 100 lists. Yes, we had some big names like Nolan Gorman and former trendy prospects like Luis Garcia, but last year's installments also led us to Jack Suwinski, Corey Julks, Spencer Steer, Stone Garrett, and Luke Raley, among others, who have all proved useful in certain formats. So why not try it again?
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As a reminder, once we get deeper into the season I'll limit the search parameters to just the last 30 days and include both those stats and season-long stats in order to also find players who have been heating up of late and may be pushing for an MLB call-up.
Jake Bauers, OF/1B - New York Yankees
.328/.476/.859, 9 HRs, 20 RBI, 15 Runs, and 5 SBs
Yes, this is the same Jake Bauers from Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Bauers is a career .213 hitter at the Major League level with a career .655 OPS. None of that is incredibly enticing as a 27-year-old; however, Bauers also leads Triple-A in OPS at 1.335. He's never been a huge strikeout guy and currently has just an 18.3% strikeout rate and a 22% walk rate in the minors. He's pulling the ball 47% of the time with a 45.7% hard-hit rate, so perhaps he's being more patient and then selling out for power when he gets a pitch in the zone. We've seen that work for older guys trying to reinvent themselves before.
The Yankees do have a need for a bat in the outfield with Franchy Cordero and Oswaldo Cabrera just not cutting it right now in New York. I'm not sure Bauers is legit enough to stick long-term, but he might be getting a shot before any other player in this article.
(FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE: It appears Aaron Judge is headed for an MRI on his hip, which might mean Bauers is called up this weekend).
Zack Collins, C/DH - Cleveland Guardians
.380/.472/.652, 6 HRs, 23 RBI, 19 Runs, 1 SB
The Guardians could use another bat in their lineup. I'm not sure Collins is an MLB-level catcher, so he can't push Mike Zunino there, and Bo Naylor is on the way, so Collins would have to just be a DH, which makes a call-up seem a bit unlikely unless the Guardians are really in a bind. Still, with Oscar Gonzalez not hitting and Cleveland not scoring many runs, it's possible they give Collins a shot.
Like Bauers, Collins has also cut his strikeout rate to 18.4% with a 14.6% walk rate, which is a nice balance but not one that's surprising for a 28-year-old with MLB experience playing at Triple-A. Collins has just a 36% hard-hit rate and is only pulling the ball 25% of the time, so I actually would prefer Bauers to Collins.
Matt McLain, SS - Cincinnati Reds
.329/.470/.633, 6 HRs, 20 RBI, 20 Runs, 6 SB
Everybody wants to see Elly De La Cruz get a crack at an MLB opportunity, but he got off to a late start this year, and McLain may be more MLB-ready anyway. The 24-year-old has a 22% strikeout rate and 18% walk rate, which is nice to see from a 23-year-old in his first taste of Triple-A. He has just a 34% hard-hit rate but is pulling the ball 42% of the time and has an intriguing blend of power and speed with 17 HRs and 27 steals last year.
Fangraphs says McLain is "more or less a slam dunk shortstop with a power-over-hit offensive skill set" who will "get to the power he does have in games via the lift in his swing and a selective approach that prioritizes damage." If he's not able to use increased selectivity to also boost his batting average floor a bit, McLain could be a sneaky prospect in a hitter-friendly park.
(FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Elly De La Cruz started at 3B last night in Triple-A and McLain started at SS. Not sure how much we want to read into that, but it is a bit interesting if it keeps happening).
Ronny Mauricio, SS/2B - New York Mets
.345/.387/.655, 6 HRs, 16 RBI, 17 Runs, and 4 SBs
Mauricio is putting up great numbers in Triple-A, and the Mets have obviously noticed since he recently started his first four games every at a position other than shortstop. With Francisco Lindor locked into the shortstop job for the Mets for years, the Mets have been trying Mauricio out at 2B, which would allow them to shift Jeff McNeil to LF.
I know James Anderson from Rotowire is not convinced that Mauricio has the plate discipline to hit for a high enough average in the big leagues right now and his .345 average but .387 OBP in Triple-A would seem to back that up. Fangraphs also says that Mauricio "is a huge-framed, switch-hitting shortstop with power from both sides of the plate and a rocket arm, but his swing decisions are often so reckless... He does show an ability to move the barrel around and sizzle the baseball somewhere, often with tremendous force behind it."
If you're willing to put up with a potentially low batting average for very real power in a solid lineup, Mauricio could be an option for you if he gets the call.
Justyn Henry-Malloy, 3B/OF - Detroit Tigers
.364/.505/.532, 3 HRs, 14 RBI, 17 Runs, 1 SB
Henry-Malloy is an intriguing name here because the Tigers need a lot of help at the MLB level. They have very few players who are locked into the starting lineup, and Henry-Malloy has an elite approach at the plate that could make him interesting. On the year, he has a 21.2% strikeout rate and a 20.2% walk rate and has a career .416 on-base percentage in the minors.
The former Braves prospect could get a chance to show that he has the advanced approach to be an on-base asset at the big league level. However, you can see that he doesn't have tons of speed or lots of thump in his bat, so you're looking at a batting average or OBP asset on a team that doesn't score a lot of runs. He'll have value in some leagues but not too many.
David Hamilton, SS - Boston Red Sox
.319/.385/.565, 4 HRs, 11 RBI, 13 Runs, 11 SBs
The 11 stolen bases should jump out here, but Hamilton stole 70 bases last year for Boston. Yes, 70! The speed is very much elite and Hamilton makes enough contact that he should get on base enough to make use of that speed. Fangraphs says that Hamilton "has made plus rates of contact in the minors" and his "speed combined with [his] suitable shortstop defense make him very likely to play a part-time big league role." That part-time role might be a full-time role when you think that the current Red Sox are using Yu Chang, Bobby Dalbec, and Enrique Hernandez at shortstop right now.
Hamilton has just a 27% hard-hit rate, but he also has just a 15% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, so he's going to put the bat on the ball and force the defense to make some plays. If you need stolen bases, he could be the best asset coming up from the minors this year.
Samad Taylor, 2B - Kansas City Royals
.333/.400/.488, 2 HRs, 16 RBI, 14 Runs, 11 SB
Samad Taylor would be another stolen base option in the minors. He actually made this column last year when he was in Toronto, and now he finds himself with an organization where he has a much more likely shot to make the big leagues. Taylor had 23 steals last year and 30 in 2021, so he's not the level of speed demon that Hamilton is, but he also has a bit more pop with the potential to be a 10-HR hitter.
In reality, there's a chance Taylor is a .250 hitter with 10 home runs and 25 stolen bases. That would have some value in deep leagues or AL-only leagues, but it's hard to get overly excited about a guy with a 17% hard-hit rate.
Christopher Morel - 3B, Chicago Cubs
.345/.444/.810, 10 HRs, 21 RBI, 25 Runs, 3 SBs
Ah, a familiar name. Christopher Morel took the fantasy baseball world by storm for a brief stretch last year, but his elevated strikeout rate caught up to him and he went cold in the second half. The Cubs then went out and signed Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Edwin Rios to take at-bats from Morel.
Morel has responded by going down to the minors and crushing the ball. He has a 44% hard-hit rate and a 53% pull rate, which is allowing him to get to his power more often. However, he also still has a 30% strikeout rate in the minors, so I don't think this is a different version of Christopher Morel. If you were a fan of Morel's loud tools before and think that he just needs an opportunity to bring that fantasy goodness, you should probably stash him now. However, I'm still concerned he won't make enough contact to make the most of his tools.
Jordan Westburg - 3B, Baltimore Orioles
.323/.397/.585, 5 HRs, 19 RBI, 13 Runs, and 3 SBs
The Orioles farm system is really good. I know Gunnar Henderson hasn't lived up to the hype so far, but he remains a good player who will have a strong MLB career. Westburg should join him in the lineup soon, but the issue for him is simple. As Fangraphs says, "Westburg doesn’t have a clear position yet. He’s played all over the infield but his arm is best suited to play second base, maybe even left field eventually."
He could play 3B if the Orioles move Henderson back to SS or he could play 2B if the Orioles move on from Adam Frazier. Westburg makes a lot of contact and has a pull-centric approach which helps him play up into his power and potentially become a 20-25 homer bat who hits .260 in a strong lineup. That's useful enough in most formats, but he's certainly not the most intriguing of the Orioles' prospects. He just may be the next one up.
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