Mid-Round Third Basemen - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

March 12, 2023

Analysis of five fantasy baseball third basemen to draft in the middle rounds. Potential 2023 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued 3B to target in drafts.

Welcome officially to the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in the MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players that can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.

Today, we're looking at some middle-round third basemen for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2023 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2023 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2023 Draft Kit.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

After a breakout 2022 season that propelled him to the top of prospect lists across the industry, Gunnar Henderson enters the 2023 season as the Baltimore Orioles starting third baseman and as a front-runner for the American League Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old finished the season with the Orioles in 2022, posting a 126 wRC+, smacking four home runs in 132 plate appearances.

However, as was a concern in his entire 2022 season from the minors to the majors, Henderson hit entirely too many of the balls he put into play on the ground, with a 59.8% ground ball rate. Even though he had an above-average 9.8% barrel rate, 92.4 MPH average exit velocity, and 53.7% hard-hit rate, his launch angle was significantly below average. With a slight adjustment, Henderson could have a high-average profile with 20+ home run pop and double-digit stolen base potential. With third base a position with a very steep dropoff after the top tier of players, Gunnar could be a smart play for fantasy managers who miss out on a top-rated player at the hot corner in drafts this season.

-- Benjamin Chase - RotoBaller

Ty France, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners first baseman Ty France had an overall successful 2022 season, slashing .274/.338/.436 with 20 home runs, 65 runs scored, and 83 RBI in 613 plate appearances. The 28-year-old didn't walk much at 5.7%, but he also didn't strike out much at 15.3%. He was also able to generate a decent amount of power despite having an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the bottom 30 percent of baseball.

France should continue to bat at the top of an above-average and improved lineup, which could lead to a boost in R. However, a good portion of his fantasy value came from his second base eligibility, which he will not have heading into 2023. He is currently being drafted at about pick 172 overall, making him the 16th first baseman off the board. The position itself is deep, but France does stand out as a solid hitting option at that point in the draft given his high floor in several categories. As such, he seems like a strong corner infielder to target toward the back half of drafts.

-- Connelly Doan - RotoBaller

Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays

It wasn't a banner year at the plate for Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman in his first season north of the border, but a solid second half led to quality production across the board. Chapman hit 27 home runs with 83 runs and 76 RBI last season and significantly increased his BB% and OPS after the All-Star break as he settled into his new club. His underlying metrics were also among the league's best. While strikeout prone, Chapman ranked in the league's 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, 97th in hard-hit rate, and 88th in barrel rate. Chapman has long ranked among the best in the business in these departments, and his roto stats could shine brightest in 2023 as a result.

Many projection systems such as THE BAT, ATC, and ZiPS have Chapman over 30 HR with runs and RBIs in at least the mid-80s as part of a dangerous Blue Jays offense. It also won't hurt that the already hitter-friendly Rogers Centre in Toronto is moving in its fences for the 2023 campaign. The former A's star is RotoBaller's 11th-ranked third baseman with an ADP of around 161. ATC projects Chapman with a .225/.316/.441 slash line with 28 home runs, 78 RBI, 79 runs, and a .330 WOBA in 2023. Given how often he barrels the baseball, Chapman is a steal at his current ADP, while it wouldn't hurt to call his name earlier in drafts.

-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller

Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suarez brought the power once again in 2022, slashing .236/.332/.459 with 31 home runs and 87 RBI. It was encouraging to see Suarez continue to hit for power despite moving out of Great American Ballpark. His batted-ball profile was what fantasy managers have come to expect; he hit the ball hard with a career-high 19.9-degree launch angle. Consequently, his .236 batting average did not come close to his .302 BABIP. He also continued to strike out often with a 31.2% strikeout rate.

The 31-year-old is currently being drafted at pick 149 overall, making him the 10th third baseman off the board. This puts him at the top of a significant tier dropoff at the position, one pick behind Max Muncy but over 50 picks behind Gunnar Henderson. Overall, Suarez is being drafted with other power hitters such as Muncy, Giancarlo Stanton, and Hunter Renfroe. Suarez's power potential is undeniable, but Matt Chapman presents an almost-identical profile at pick 162. Suarez's downsides are clear, and while his current ADP seems reasonable, a similar version of him can currently be drafted a bit later.

-- Connelly Doan - RotoBaller

Jose Miranda, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins infielder Jose Miranda is going into his second season after coming onto the scene in 2022 and impressing. He hit .268, slugged 15 home runs, stole one base, scored 45 runs, and drove in 66 over 125 games. Still, Miranda projects as a pretty boring hitter in fantasy baseball moving forward. He only struck out 18.8% of the time and always had low strikeout rates in the minors, but he doesn't hit the ball exceptionally hard (55th-percentile average exit velocity in 2022) and has little speed, posting a 25th-percentile sprint speed. There's no reason Miranda can't be a consistent 20-homer guy, but that's likely his ceiling.

The 24-year-old hardly barreled balls this season with a 6.2% rate, and his 109.4 MPH max exit velocity isn't that impressive. He also plays in a tough division to go yard in with many big outfields. Miranda's going to hit in a solid lineup but won't be much more than a 70-runs and RBI player, as Steamer projects (64 runs, 71 RBI). In real life, the Puerto Rican is a quality young bat but is just above average in four categories and a nonfactor in stolen bases. His ADP suggests otherwise, though, as Miranda's going around pick 155, ahead of more intriguing third basemen like Matt Chapman (162 ADP) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (165 ADP), as well as Anthony Rizzo (156 ADP) and Rowdy Tellez (178 ADP) at first base.

-- Spencer Seguin - RotoBaller

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