RADIO
Running back Melvin Gordon is staying in the AFC West after signing a two-year deal with the Broncos. Justin Carter evaluates the move from a fantasy football perspective to determine if Gordon is still a fantasy RB1 and what the backfield looks like now in Denver and L.A.
Last year, Melvin Gordon held out, hoping for a bigger contract with the Los Angeles Chargers. It didn't happen, so he entered free agency this year, signing a deal on Friday with the Denver Broncos. His two-year deal worth $16 million is undoubtedly less than he hoped for and is far less than the $10 million per year that the Chargers had initially offered in 2019.
Additionally, Denver, who already has Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, feels like a weird place for a back of Gordon's stature to land. But it's clear John Elway valued adding a talented back like Gordon and Gordon must be fine with the prospect of splitting snaps with at least one other back.
Let's parse through this signing and what it means for both the Broncos and Gordon's old team, the Chargers.
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Three's a Crowd
I don't think the Melvin Gordon signing really changes the outlook at quarterback or receiver in Denver, but it does dramatically change the outlook of the rushing attack here. Let's break down some expectations for the three players involved.
Melvin Gordon
Denver obviously didn't sign Melvin Gordon to be a backup running back. He's going to get the plurality of the touches among the Broncos' backfield options.
Gordon has played just one full 16-game season during his five years in the NFL and that season just happened to be his only 1,000-yard year. In 2018, Gordon had 885 yards in just 12 games, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring 14 total touchdowns that year. He was a factor on the ground and as a receiver and was among the top running backs in a lot of efficiency metrics, including being third in yards created per carry.
The 2018 version of Melvin Gordon is who Denver hopes they just signed, but that was also the only season in his career where he's had over four yards per carry. Last year, Gordon dropped to 50th among running backs in yards created per carry. He was 40th in production premium and 51st in true yards per carry. It was not a great return for Gordon, who held out for the first four games in hopes of a contract better than the one he wound up signing.
The worry here is that 2020 Gordon will look a lot more like his 2019 self than his 2018 self, but that's a fair concern. Gordon has one very good year, plus some other solid years where his workload probably played at least somewhat of a role in his fantasy output. Factor in that running backs don't age well, and you can see why Gordon isn't a lock to be the same player we've expected him to be for the last few seasons, even if he isn't necessarily an old back yet.
I'd consider him a mid-tier RB2, but there's likely going to be some volatility here based on this backfield's make-up. Maybe avoid Gordon if you're a proponent of consistency-based drafting.
Phillip Lindsay
If landing in Denver is pretty meh from a fantasy perspective for Gordon, it's potentially a disaster for Lindsay.
Lindsay was the team leader in carries by a good bit last year, although Royce Freeman surprisingly led the backs in targets 50 to 48, which is...interesting, considering some of the narratives around the two.
Anyway, Lindsay is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, something Gordon's never done. I actually wouldn't be shocked to see Lindsay get plenty of early-down work, especially when the team isn't in the red zone, with Gordon getting more of the passing down work. But also, I could see the opposite happening, with the Broncos trying to cast Lindsay into more of that complementary role where they ask him to spell Gordon and play more on third downs. I'm not sure that's a great outcome for a back who was 29th among running backs in catch rate and just 82nd in fantasy points per opportunity.
Lindsay will get his chances. But before this move, he was solidly an RB2, and now there's no way you can draft him with the expectation that he's more than a situational flex option, right? He goes from lead back to runner up, and there's just no way -- barring a Gordon injury -- that he approaches 1,000 yards again. Lindsay projects to be a flex option with a decent floor, but also a low ceiling.
Royce Freeman
I don't know.
I like Freeman. I have a lot of Freeman shares. And he was a better receiver than Lindsay last year, despite people thinking of him as a run-only guy. But he's not fantasy-relevant now. He can't be at this point, unless he somehow beats Lindsay out during the preseason, which doesn't seem likely.
The best-case scenario for Freeman is that he ends up not being a Bronco. If that happens, we can revisit this, but for now, let's just say this: if Royce Freeman is still a Bronco come August, don't draft him.
What About the Chargers Backfield?
The other side of this is that Melvin Gordon's departure stands to give us a slightly clearer view of the Los Angeles backfield, and it offers a nice boost to Austin Ekeler.
Like I did with the Broncos, let's break it down by player.
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler gets first crack at the lead role here. Last year, in the games without Gordon, Ekeler averaged 27.25 PPR points per game, with an average of 14 carries and six receptions.
It was all Ekeler during that time, with Justin Jackson serving as his backup despite many expecting those four games with Gordon holding out would look more like a running back committee.
I expect 2020 to be the same way. Ekeler's not your prototypical lead back, but he seems like he can handle 20 touches based on that (admittedly small) sample of Gordon-less games last year, and based on his play in the three games in 2018 without Gordon, during which time he averaged 17.33 touches per game.
In PPR, I'd think of Ekeler as a solid RB1, someone I'd maybe start drafting as the seventh or eighth back off the boards in fantasy drafts. He has a lot of upside.
In the three games that Jackson played without Gordon, he averaged 7.17 PPR points per game, with an averaged of eight touches.
That seems like a reasonable assumption for his 2020 campaign should he enter it as the No. 2 guy in L.A. Jackson won't light the world on fire, but there's flex appeal as he serves as a complement to Ekeler and sees some early down work. I don't love Jackson from a fantasy perspective, but there'll be enough value there for him to get drafted late in drafts, and an Ekeler injury would likely thrust him up into RB2 territory based on potential workload. The Bolts will likely add another back through free agency or the draft but not someone who will automatically be thrust into a starting role without competition.
