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SP Max Scherzer signed a huge free agent deal with the New York Mets ahead of the 2022 MLB season. Jacob Taylor breaks down the fantasy baseball implications, Scherzer's value as a starting pitcher, and ADP.
The hot stove is already sizzling but the heat was turned up higher with Max Scherzer signing with the Mets. Scherzer is heading to New York on a three-year, $130 million contract with an opt-out after the second season. The $43.3 million AAV for Scherzer shatters the previous record for the highest AAV set by Gerrit Cole’s contract with the Yankees ($36 million).
Scherzer is coming off another extremely successful campaign with the Nationals and Dodgers which allowed him to cash in on a high AAV deal at the age of 37. After being traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline we once again bore witness to Scherzer’s greatness in the postseason as he pushed the Dodgers into the NLCS. However, he did come out of the postseason with an injury, which at his advanced age, could be a concern moving forward.
The Mets seem to have no concerns and are continuing to push their payroll to be the next top spending, top competing team they were supposed to be last season. Due to a massive string of injuries and underperformance, the Mets flamed out and failed to make the playoffs. To make matters worse, their division rival Atlanta Braves won the World Series. This offseason the Mets have remedied that by signing Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and now Max Scherzer. The Mets are the favorites to win the N.L. East and meet the Dodgers in the NLCS in 2022.
A Deeper Look At Max Scherzer
The 2021 season represented another typical Max Scherzer performance. He produced a 2.46 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.24 xFIP across 179.1 innings pitched, good for a 5.4 WAR. Scherzer has managed a 5 WAR or higher in every full season since 2013. Furthermore, the Statcast numbers remained elite as the only categories that Scherzer did not place in the 55th percentile or higher were barrel % and max exit velocity.
This elite production follows a down year (relative to Max Scherzer’s typical production) in 2020. Scherzer managed a 3.74 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.53 xFIP. That was his highest ERA since 2012 and his highest FIP and xFIP since 2011. Many people thought that, at the age of 36, Scherzer was finally hitting his age regression. Obviously, his return to his typical production in 2021 proved otherwise.
Max Scherzer is 37 years old and there is something to be said about that. Nobody pitches 200 IP anymore but Scherzer used to be the exception. Yet, he has failed to top 180 IP in each of the last two full seasons. Furthermore, the injuries are starting to rear their head. Nothing has sat him down for long periods of time but he has had back issues in the past and experienced a dead arm in the postseason. The dead arm was so severe that the Dodgers couldn’t use him for the final games of the NLCS. Those issues could just be things that arose based on the shortened 2020 schedule but they are something to take note of moving forward.
Max Scherzer's Impact in New York
Max Scherzer heads to New York where he will join fellow superstar Jacob deGrom as one of the best pairings in MLB. An underrated part of Scherzer’s production with the Nationals was the fact that he did it in the 5th most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Now, he will go to Citi Field which represents the 19th most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Furthermore, he returns to the N.L. East, a division he has dominated over the last seven seasons.
That said, the below-average barrel % and max exit velocity show that when Scherzer does get hit, he gets hit hard. Combine that with his advanced age and the increased likelihood of an N.L. designated hitter and he isn’t without concern. Then again, who is?
Max Scherzer's 2022 Fantasy Outlook
Max Scherzer’s ADP currently sits at 17.38. Scherzer is currently projected by Steamer to have a lower WAR than Jacob deGrom (22.08 ADP), Gerritt Cole (8.79), Zack Wheeler (22.92), Aaron Nola (41.29), and Shane Bieber (29.04) with an identical WAR to Brandon Woodruff (17.5). There are question marks about every player listed above including Scherzer. Yet, Scherzer is being taken before every one of those guys except for Gerritt Cole.
Max Scherzer is an SP1 without a doubt but where he is being taken in NFC is a stay-away for me, especially since you can wait for a full round and get similar production with comparable risk.
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