Max Scherzer to the Dodgers - Fantasy Impact

August 3, 2021

The L.A. Dodgers traded for SP Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner from the Nationals. Michael Grennell examines their fantasy baseball value and analyzes prospects going to Washington for 2021 and beyond.

Max Scherzer made it to southern California by the trade deadline — but it wasn't to the team everyone had expected. After early reports said he was heading to the Padres, hours later suddenly the story flipped to Scherzer going to Los Angeles, and next thing you know not only was Scherzer joining the Dodgers, so was Trea Turner. Here's how that deal went down:

Dodgers receive: RHP Max Scherzer, SS Trea Turner
Nationals receive: C Keibert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, OF Donovan Casey, RHP Gerardo Carrillo

The Nationals shipped off their two biggest trade chips, and in return received a massive haul of prospects. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have significantly boosted their chances of a return trip to the World Series. And unlike some of the other deals we saw completed before the deadline, we're likely to see an impact in fantasy this year from both sides of the deal. We'll start things off by heading out to the West Coast to examine the Dodgers' haul.

A Hurler And Hitter Head To Hollywood

With the high likelihood that Trevor Bauer will not take the field again this year, the Dodgers found their replacement for him in Scherzer. Over 19 starts this season, Scherzer has gone 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA, 0.892 WHIP and 34.3 percent strikeout rate over 111 innings pitched. His Statcast metrics suggest that he's been slightly lucky when it comes to ERA this year, but even still, a 3.28 xERA is nothing to sneeze at, and it currently ranks him in the 81st percentile. But what there's no doubt of with Scherzer is his ability to generate strikeouts, as he currently sports a 34.3 percent strikeout rate (93rd percentile) and a career-high 35.3 percent whiff rate (94th percentile).

Moving to the NL West will provide a slightly tougher opposition for Scherzer, as the Dodgers' divisional opponents are hitting slightly higher than the Nationals' divisional opponents:

• NL West .242/.319/.406, 23.2 K%, 4.53 R/G
• NL East .238/.315/.397, 24.7 K%, 4.25 R/G

And one concern managers should have is that Scherzer has put up a poor showing against the Padres this year, as he has allowed 11 earned runs on nine hits and four walks while striking out 15 over 10 2/3 innings of work against them.

With Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw on the IL, plus Bauer remaining out on administrative leave, Scherzer won't impact anyone else in the rotation just yet. But when Gonsolin and Kershaw return, that will bump David Price from the rotation back into the bullpen. Otherwise, Scherzer's presence shouldn't impact any of the other pitchers on the Dodgers' staff through the rest of the year.

And now we take a look at the other piece heading to Los Angeles in Turner. He'll be out for a short while after testing positive for COVID-19 last week, but when he returns it will pose an interesting conundrum for Los Angeles as to where he will play. The Dodgers already have Corey Seager at shortstop, and they also have an All-Star second baseman in Chris Taylor. Turner has some experience in the outfield, but once again, the Dodgers have AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts as their main outfield trio.

One possible solution that the Dodgers could go with to give Turner regular playing time is to have him take over as the primary center fielder with Bellinger moving into a fourth-outfielder role. Turner has some experience playing center field, and he has been far better at the plate this year than what Bellinger has done. Over 96 games, Turner is slashing .322/.369/.521 with 18 homers, 21 steals. 49 RBI and 66 runs scored, while Bellinger is slashing .163/.263/.285 with five homers, two steals, 21 RBI and 28 runs scored over 48 games. Injuries have cost Bellinger a lot of time and have clearly impacted his performance, and with the "win-now" mentality of this trade, it would not be surprising to see the Dodgers make this move and give Turner regular playing time out there once he's back.

Nats Making A Move For The Future

The Nationals traded off just about every player that they could before the deadline, and while they got quite a few good pieces back, their biggest haul came from the Dodgers. All four prospects that Washington acquired in this deal instantly jumped into MLB Pipeline's top-30 prospects list for the Nationals organization, with Ruiz and Gray also ranking as top-50 overall prospects.

We'll start off our examination of this haul by looking at Gray, who has already been announced as Washington's starter for Monday's series opener with the Phillies. Gray has made two appearances with the Dodgers this year, allowing six runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out 13 over eight innings of work. Over three years in the minors, he's proven to be a strikeout machine as he boasts a career 29.2 percent strikeout rate over 198 innings pitched. It looks like he could get the chance to stick in Washington's rotation to close out the year, and he could end up being an excellent guy to pick up off the waiver wire, as he now moves to the weaker-hitting NL East.

Ruiz made his major league debut in 2020, and so far has appeared in eight games where he has gone 3-for-15 at the plate, with two of those hits leaving the ballpark. Over six seasons in the Dodgers' organization Ruiz has shown plenty of potential with his bat, as he owns a career .300/.355/.447 triple-slash line along with a 9.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate. He's really seemed to hit his stride in his age-22 season at Triple-A, as he's currently hitting .311 with a 1.012 OPS and a career-high 16 home runs over 52 games. For now he's going to remain in the minors, but given the fact Washington traded away starting catcher Yan Gomes, there's a very good chance we could see Ruiz get some playing time with the Nationals over the remainder of the season. He might not make a big impact this season, but he'll likely be competing for the starting job out of Spring Training in 2022.

Now ranked the No. 27 prospect in Washington's system, Casey has shown off the power and the speed at Double-A this season, as he's slashing .296/.362/.462 with 11 homers, 15 steals, 36 RBI and 51 runs scored over 73 games. Granted that comes with the caveat that he is a little on the older side for Double-A at age 25, but it more or less falls in line with his career numbers, as he has slashed .286/.348/.474 with 48 home runs, 45 steals, 180 RBI and 232 runs scored across four seasons. There isn't a whole lot standing between him and the majors in Washington's system, so he could find time as a fourth outfielder for Washington either late this year or out of Spring Training next year.

And then last but not least we get to Carrillo. A 22-year-old starting pitcher playing at Double-A, Carrillo has shown improvement from a poor showing at High-A in 2019, as he is currently 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA, 1.315 WHIP and 26.2 percent strikeout rate across 59 1/3 innings of work. The strikeouts in particular are a marked increase from his previous career-high of 21.2 percent from 2019. He's also heated up on the mound in the month of July, where he went 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.087 WHIP and 25.8 percent strikeout rate over 23 innings of work. He's still probably a year or two away from making an impact in fantasy, but if he continues to show improvements like this he could be a solid fantasy pitcher in the near future.

Outlook For 2021 And Beyond

What a shock, Scherzer should still be a good pitcher in Los Angeles. It's possible his ERA and WHIP could take a very small hit, but it won't be significant enough to cause issues in any format. He'll still be a strikeout machine, and may even get a chance for a couple more wins than he would have otherwise had in Washington.

Turner's arrival in Los Angeles (once he's activated from the COVID-19 IL) shouldn't impact his fantasy value too much, but it depends on what the Dodgers do with him. If he takes over as the primary center fielder or second baseman then his value should remain more or less the same as it was with the Nationals. But he could end up moving into some kind of timeshare with Seager at shortstop, Taylor at second base or Bellinger in center field. He'll still be able to have an impact in fantasy upon his return, but moving into a timeshare would cost him a considerable amount of value.

As for the prospects heading to Washington, Gray and Ruiz are the most likely to have an impact in 2021. Gray should be the primary target, and managers in 12-team and deeper formats should scoop him off the waiver wire for his strikeout potential — especially pitching in the weaker NL East. Managers can hold off on going after Ruiz until after he gets called up, but keep an eye out for that move because it could happen at any time. Casey and Carrillo are only relevant for now in dynasty leagues, with Carrillo the more interesting option that managers should be targeting.

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