Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA) - Waiver Wire Pickups

May 24, 2017

Pierre Camus recommends AL SP Matt Shoemaker as a fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup and add in 2017 for his past performance in hopes of a return to form.

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ANALYSIS: On the surface, Shoemaker is pitching like a replacement-level starter. A 3.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.39 K/BB and remarkably mediocre. These ratios aren't too off last year either (3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), but the control is not the same (4.77 K/BB). The difference is that Shoemaker is walking 9.8% of batters, more than double last year's total. He's also allowing 1.59 HR/9 with a 38.3% hard contact rate that is the highest of his career.

This may be enough to scare you away from Shoemaker altogether in mixed leagues, but if you dig into his recent past, you may find enough upside to take a chance on. In 2014 and 2016, Shoemaker posted excellent walk rates of 4.4% and 4.5%. For his career, he owns a dead-even GB/FB split of 1.00. This year, he's allowing fly balls 48.4% of the time, which explains his elevated home run rate. If he can keep the ball down in the zone more consistently, everything else may fall in line. You may recall Shoemaker suffered an epidural hematoma last September after taking a line drive to the skull. He doesn't seem to be suffering any physical after-effects, but he may be pitching less aggressively. If anything, his velocity is up a slight tick, so there are no concerns there. It may be a matter of making some simple adjustments and Shoemaker will regain relevancy.