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Infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager signed as free agents with the Texas Rangers. Mark Kieffer breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of this move and provides an outlook on Seager and Semien for the 2022 season.
The Texas Rangers made a big splash in free agency by signing Corey Seager (10 years, $350 million) and Marcus Semien (7 years, $175 million) to create their middle infield combination for years to come.
This surprised a lot of baseball fans, as the Rangers traded Joey Gallo and Kyle Gibson at the trade deadline last year. Most thought the Rangers would be in rebuild mode for a long while, but instead, they reloaded.
This is a good time to look back at Seager and Semien's 2021 season from a fantasy baseball perspective and determine what might be in store as we look ahead to the 2022 fantasy baseball season.
Reviewing Corey Seager's 2021
Corey Seager had a disappointing season due to his broken hand that caused him to land on the 60-day injured list in mid-May. Looking at his numbers on a per plate appearance basis, they were in line with his career averages. He hit .306 with a .394 OBP, 16 home runs, 54 runs scored, 57 RBI, and one steal in 409 plate appearances (95 games played). His career averages are .297/.367, a home run in 3.8% of his plate appearances, and only 12 career steals.
The 2020 season looks to be an outlier for Seager, as he hit a home run in 6.46% of his plate appearances, putting him on pace for over 38 home runs over the course of a full season. 2021 was a similar year to his 2016, 2017, and 2019 seasons if you extrapolate his numbers from 2021 over the course of a full season.
Reviewing Marcus Semien's 2021
Marcus Semien had a career year in many ways, setting career highs in home runs (45), RBI (102), stolen bases (15), and played all 162 games on the season. Additionally, he hit .265 with an OBP of .334. His career batting average is .256 and his OBP is .324. His power numbers were a bit absurd, his career ISO is .188 but in 2021 it was .273. His next highest ISO in a season was .237 in 2019 when he hit 33 home runs in 747 plate appearances (all 162 games played as well). Semien gained second base eligibility and will be playing second base for the Rangers as well in 2022.
Semien was a pleasant surprise for most fantasy gamers, helped a lot of people win some leagues and some money in 2021.
What do we make of 2021 and how might it inform us for 2022?
Looking Ahead To 2022 Drafts
The NFBC has started drafts for the 2022 season meaning we have an Average Draft Position (ADP) that we can check. Why NFBC? These are high-stakes leagues, not mock drafts, and give a more accurate picture of where someone who is paying significant money to play fantasy baseball will draft a specific player.
In 12 team leagues, Marcus Semien has an ADP of 23.27 with a minimum pick of 12 and a maximum pick of 31. He is the No. 4 shortstop eligible player drafted, going between Bo Bichette and Tim Anderson, and the No. 3 second base eligible player drafted, going between Ozzie Albies and Whit Merrifield. In 15 team leagues, Semien has an ADP of 28.75 with a minimum pick of 16 and a maximum pick of 43. But he is still between Albies and Merrifield at second base and between Bichette and Tim Anderson at shortstop.
Corey Seager has an ADP of 74.45 in 12 team leagues with a minimum pick of 55 and a maximum pick of 91. He is being drafted between Javier Baez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. at shortstop. In 15 team leagues, his ADP is 63.94 and he is being drafted before Javier Baez but after Francisco Lindor at shortstop.
How Will They Fare In 2022?
Now that we are past Thanksgiving, we have Steamer projections to look at.
Steamer projects Corey Seager for a .291 average, 25 home runs, 85 runs scored, 82 RBI, and three steals. Seager's career batting average is .297 and has hit a home run in 3.8% of his plate appearances and Steamer has him hitting a home run in 4.2% of his plate appearances. His home run projection might be a little high, influenced by his outlier season in 2019, as he hit 22 home runs in 2017 over 613 plate appearances and 26 home runs in 687 plate appearances.
Additionally, Globe Life Field has a much worse home run hitting environment than Dodger Stadium according to Statcast. Steamer has him projected for 596 plate appearances, playing in 136 games. Seager projects for elite batting average, and a little bit of power from the shortstop position.
Marcus Semien is projected by Steamer for a .260 average, 30 home runs, 96 runs scored, 84 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. He is also projected for 681 plate appearances and 150 games. Semien has a career batting average of .256 In Semien's career, he has hit a home run in 3.68% of his plate appearances, however, his projection has him hitting a home run in 4.4% of his plate appearances. Projecting him for a .260 average and something closer to 25 home runs makes more sense to me at this point in time.
Unlike Seager's situation, Semien has spent most of his career hitting in pitching friendly parks. Globe Life Field is a better hitting environment than the Oakland Coliseum. I could see Semien having power production similar to what he has done in his Oakland years. Semien has had double-digit steals in every full season he has played, so projecting 11 steals makes sense too.
Team Outlook: Texas Rangers
In 2021, Texas was No. 28 in runs scored and No. 28 in ISO, in one of the worst offenses in the league. Adding Semien and Seager should help, but there isn't much else around Texas. On roster resource, the projected 2-3-4-5 hitters are Semien-Seager-Adolis Garcia- Nathaniel Lowe. Outside of those players, there is a lot of projected disappointment: Willie Calhoun, Kole Calhoun, Jonah Heim, Nick Solak, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Runs and RBI are difficult to project, but expecting a downtick from both players' career averages in those categories makes sense as each of them is leaving one of the best lineups in the league to join one of the worst.
In 2021, Texas was tied for No. 4 in stolen bases. This is encouraging to see and gives hope that Semien will continue to run and collect the double-digit steals we are all accustomed to getting from Semien.
Final Takeaways
Corey Seager is likely to see a dip in his power production, moving from a good home run hitting environment to one of the worst in the league. Semien will see a dip in his power as well compared to 2021 but could produce similar to what he did in Oakland. While two players can improve an offense, they alone cannot turn one of the worst offenses into one of the best offenses.
From a fantasy baseball perspective, I will likely not draft Seager in roto leagues, as I prefer to have my middle infield with players that will steal double-digit bases. Seager is more viable in point leagues. Marcus Semien is a player that I liked as a sleeper last year, but I am nervous about drafting in the second round this year as we are paying for those power numbers from a significant number of games in Dunedin.
My questions about both of these players heading into Spring is: how much power can Marcus Semien sustain, and how many games will Corey Seager play in 2022? The Rangers' offense should certainly be much better next season with these two hard-hitting infielders but it won't necessarily translate to better fantasy numbers for each individually.
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