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Justin Carter's 2022 NCAA Tournament sleepers for March Madness. His under the radar sleeper picks can help you build winning college basketball brackets.
It's tournament time, y'all! The men's field of 68 is officially out, which means you're probably already getting ready to submit those brackets, or maybe you already have but you're rethinking some things.
There are always upsets in the NCAA Tournament. We're going to try to identify some of the teams that might be flying under the radar who can get those upset wins and make a run.
In this article, I will be providing you with my sleepers for the 2022 NCAA tournament. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers!
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West Region Tournament Sleepers
Boise State (27-7, No. 8 seed) & Memphis (21-10, No. 9 seed)
There are two teams in the West that I could see making a surprise run. The problem? They play each other in the opening round.
Memphis has been on fire with Emoni Bates out of the lineup:
That's impressive. Losing Bates appears to be an addition by subtraction situation and while Sunday's 71-53 loss to Houston isn't accounted for in those numbers, multiple regular season wisn against Houston are.
Jalen Duren has been strong on both sides of the ball and is an imposing force who has helped steady this team without Bates.
As for Boise, the team went 15-3 in the Mountain West. Tyson Degenhart has had a strong Freshman season.
Boise ranks 26th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin, above teams like Colorado State, Ohio State and Wisconsin, who all earned higher seeds. The team is 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking ahead of Arizona, Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas and Illinois.
South Region Tournament Sleepers
Colorado State (25-5, No. 6 seed)
The Rams are the second Mountain West team in this article because the top of the MW was really good this year.
Colorado State features MW Player of the Year David Roddy, who averaged 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Roddy can shoot from everywhere and is one of the most underrated players in this year's tournament.
The team gets Michigan in the first round. The two teams are pretty evenly matched, as Colorado State is 31st in KenPom and Michigan is 33rd. Michigan has been a pretty unlucky team. Colorado State has been a pretty lucky team. Really, this feels like an upset. Michigan is even favored:
But hey, sometimes you have to go with vibes and also with the fact that Michigan went 17-14. And sure, Tennessee in the second round is even tougher, but...
Alright, I'm talking myself out of this one, which I shouldn't do. The numbers suggest this team can make the Sweet 16.
TCU (20-12, No, 9 seed)
The Horned Frogs were 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That defensive intensity helped the team beat Texas Tech and Kansas late in the regular season.
TCU gets a Seton Hall team in the first round that isn't great offensively, something TCU can take advantage of. And considering this team has gotten up for some big moments and defeated one of the one seeds this month plus beat Texas, I don't think this team will be scared of Arizona in the second round.
Still, I'm less confident in TCU...and in Colorado State...than I am in sleeper picks from other regions. The South Region feels chalky.
East Region Tournament Sleepers
Murray State (30-2, No. 7 seed)
A solid team on both sides of the ball, Murray State has done this thing this season called "barely losing." Just two losses this year, once to East Tennessee State (what????) and then another to Auburn.
The key for this team is K.J. Williams and his versatility. He can basically do whatever the Racers need him to do offensively, which opens up a lot of things for a really, really talented supporting cast.
Of course, this team has to get past No. 10 seed San Francisco first:
Heck, I could probably have put the Dons here too.
There's also the possibility of a second-round game between Murray State and Kentucky. People seem to want that. Could the Racers go out and beat the Wildcats?
Virginia Tech (23-12, No. 11 seed)
The Hokies just won the ACC Tournament, taking them from a bubble team to a tournament team.
I don't know how much I believe in momentum, but this pick is for those of you who want to make a momentum-based pick: the Hokies are rolling. The team beat Notre Dame, UNC and Duke in a three-day span, including a comfortable 82-67 win over the Blue Devils. The team is 23rd in adjusted efficiency margin and plays some strong offense, ranking 18th in adjusted offensive margin. And only one tournament team, Colgate, ranks worse in KenPom's luck rating.
Midwest Region Tournament Sleepers
Iowa (26-9, No. 5 seed)
The Hawkeyes didn't get off to the best start, but the team got hot in the Big Ten Tournament, winning the conference title. That run included a 112-76 win over Northwestern.
In the conference title game, Jordan Bohannon was quiet, but Keegan Murray scored 19 points to lead the way. Iowa has some really intriguing offensive threats.
The team ranks 13th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric. Only one team seeded fifth or worse in the tournament ranks better, which is fifth-seed Houston, which ranks fourth. (Houston isn't being mentioned as a sleeper in this piece because, well...they're too obvious.)
Iowa State (20-12, No. 11 seed)
Can we get a CyHawk game in the Midwest Region? Probably not based on the bracket, but if I'm betting on an 11-seed to make a run, it'd be Iowa State — and yes, that includes liking them more than the other 11-seed I wrote about.
The Cyclones have some big wins this year and had some moments early in the season, though the Big 12 wasn't so kind to them.
But I still like this team. Why? Defense. KenPom has them 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and they get a coach-less LSU team in the first round, then (probably) a Wisconsin team that ranks 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the next round. Defense wins championships and while it won't win the Cyclones one, it can win them some games.
More March Madness Analysis
