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College basketball writer Tommy Bell breaks down his favorite values when it comes to NCAA futures bets now that the 2021 March Madness bracket has been revealed.
Hey RotoBallers! We finally made it. Just over a year after March Madness was ripped out from under our feet, we have a bracket to dissect and an amazing weekend (maybe one of the best sports weekends of the year??) to look forward to.
While filling out a bracket and joining some pools is the most popular way to get involved in the madness, there is plenty of fun and value in placing some future wagers for those who have access to a sportsbook. If you are new to this, in short, we're basically just putting a marginal bet down on plus-money odds that a team will make that coveted dream run to the Final Four and cut down the nets on National Championship day! If it sounds difficult, that's because it is. But it can be a cheap way to invest in a team you love, and the payoff, whether by hedge or by an outright win, can be HUGE!
So, I've come up with three teams that I like for "value" when it comes to futures bets. I'll have an explanation and "path to victory" for each one below, and you can decide to follow me on any or none of the teams! I will say I've proudly placed a wager on each one of these teams already, so I'm in this sweat with you! You can find me on Twitter for all things college basketball banter @BellRoto. I also plan to be much more prominent in terms of betting advice/picks here at RotoBaller when the MLB season starts up in a few weeks! Let's get into this thing, and because I won't be able to say it in the context below, Go Bonnies!! (I'm a proud St. Bonaventure University alum)
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Illinois: 7/1 (+700)
First off, these numbers are taken from VegasInsider.com. This is your chalk pick of the day, as PLENTY of people will be putting the Fighting Illini at the top spot in their brackets in the coming days following their impressive conference wins down the stretch, including their dismantling of Iowa and Ohio State en route to their Big 10 Championship. That being said, I think there's plenty of value in the fact that they're not the outright betting favorites.
The early success of Gonzaga and Baylor this season has planted them firmly as betting favorites in the market, and there's still plenty of reason to believe they can win. However, I think Illinois has been the most impressive of the one seeds over the past month, especially considering that Michigan looked lost without Isaiah Livers in their loss to OSU a few days ago.
Look, Gonzaga is really good. You won't catch me claiming they're not. But it takes a LOT of moxie to win a BUNCH of tournament games in a row against really good teams. The Zags did a great job of putting together a tough non-conference schedule, and they took care of it with ease. But they did look mortal for about 28 minutes against BYU in the conference final, and they haven't played REALLY tough competition since Christmas. Meanwhile, Baylor has shown they have some weaknesses that can be exploited since their Covid pause a couple of weeks ago. There's plenty of talent on Scott Drew's roster, but I'm not even fully convinced they'll make it out of the South section of the bracket alive.
So, that leaves Illinois as my favorite one seed in the tournament, and I couldn't be happier that I jumped on a 12/1 (+1200) ticket earlier in the season. I became less confident in that ticket in the early portion of their conference play, but the team has really come on strong, especially since having to come together and fill the void left by Ayo Dosunmu for a couple of games.
The boys from Champaign have one of the best big men in the country in Kofi Cockburn, an all-around star on both sides of the ball in Dosunmu, and plenty of ancillary pieces who can create shots and play strong defense when called upon. This team is all kinds of dangerous, as shown in their recent play, and their toughest games en route to the Final Four will be (based on my bracket projections) against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. I think Cockburn makes the difference in both of those contests, as neither of those teams has a true center who can slow down the big man.
Illinois is as battle-tested as anyone, coming out of a LOADED Big 10 conference victorious, and I think there's a real argument to be made for them to be the betting favorite. If the championship game is against a Zags team that has dispatched their side of the bracket with ease, I'll definitely be hedging this a bit. But outside of a Gonzaga team who replicates their non-conference dominance or a Michigan squad with a healthy Livers, I don't see anyone who can match up with Illinois. There's still plenty of value in +700 if you ask me, and I think they're a really good bet to give you Final Four action as long as they can avoid getting upset by a Cade Cunningham 40-point outing in the Sweet Sixteen.
Texas: 20/1 (+2000)
I got a little long-winded with my favorite futures ticket above, so I'll try to be a little more condensed here. I think Texas has the across-the-board talent to beat just about anyone in college basketball right now. Shaka Smart has two veteran guards who can play defense, get to the rack, and get hot from deep in Matt Coleman and Andrew Jones. Jericho Sims has started to show how good he can be as a top-tier big man, and Kai Jones is one of the most athletic NBA prospects in the country. Not to mention the Longhorns have a defensive stalwart with more heart than anyone in Brock Cunningham. I LOVE this roster top to bottom.
The betting number is high due to some shaky losses to teams like Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Villanova over the past few months. The boys from Austin are far from perfect, I'll be the first to admit that, but their potential is sky-high. We saw their upside in the most recent Big 12 tournament run, and it's fun to watch! This is a strong defensive team who likes to run-and-gun, but they have the athleticism to make their own shots and create second chances in a half-court offense as well. Throw in a veteran coach who's made an NCAA run before, and we got ourselves a live one, folks!
The path for the Longhorns includes a second-round matchup with either BYU or a play-in team followed by a Sweet Sixteen date against one of UConn, Maryland, or Alabama. The Crimson Tide would definitely be the toughest of those draws, and that would lead to a ton of fireworks on offense which could get dangerous, but I'm not 100% sure they get to this matchup (hint, hint). Texas would then play the survivor of the top half of the East, and I think Michigan is most likely there even without Livers. Texas is longer than the Wolverines, and if Sims can slow Hunter Dickenson down low, they'll have a shot at the Final Four.
Texas would have to beat Iowa or Gonzaga to get to the title game, which does scare me, but you'll have some hedging opportunities at that point. Do I think this team can beat my other futures bet in Illinois? Probably not, unless Coleman and Jones get unconscious from three. But that would be a great problem to have! If you are itching for a futures bet on a team without a 1 next to their name, I think you'll be hard-pressed to find a more capable team than Texas at 20/1.
Connecticut: 40/1 (+4000)
Last but not least, we have the fighting Dan Hurleys! This one will be pretty straightforward, and we won't have to do much in terms of explaining a path to victory, because we pretty much just laid it out with Texas above. I'm not in love with having a ticket on two teams from the same half of a region, but I think if we're playing the value game this team from Storrs, CT has as much as anyone on the board.
The key to victory in EVERY matchup will be the star sophomore guard James Bouknight. But Adama Sanogo has evolved more and more on both sides of the ball in every subsequent Huskies game that I watch. Add in a few dangerous pieces in Tyrese Martin, RJ Cole, and Andre Jackson off the bench, and you have yourself a team with a lot of upside.
Along with having one of the best coaches in the country in Hurley, I think Connecticut also got a very favorable draw after their first game. This does scare me, as Maryland has shown the ability to win big games when they can slow opponents down and hit big shots, but I think UConn has the athleticism to speed the game up and get big stops down the stretch. Bouknight and company would then have to run with Bama and get a lot of production out of their guards to advance to a Sweet Sixteen game against Texas, where things get real dicey. However, if UConn can bring the energy against Texas and force turnovers like they've shown they can, I think the Huskies have what it takes to dispatch Michigan to make a Shabazz Napier-like Final Four run to replicate 2014.
Anything can happen with the Huskies in the Final Four, and Bouknight is the kind of scorer that just seems to break the rules of physics en route to countless contested layups, sick step-back jumpers, and successful trips to the free-throw line. Hurley has a young, talented, and driven team heading to Indy this year with seemingly endless amounts of energy and enthusiasm. While there are plenty of challenges awaiting them, I think 40/1 odds on a team that looks as dominant as UConn through prolonged stretches is just too good to pass up. For the record, I bought into them at 55/1 prior to their Villanova loss, but there's value on this number!
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