March Madness Bubble Report for Thursday, March 11

Nick Federline's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/11/21. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 14, 2021.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

Syracuse

Coach Jim Boeheim has developed a knack for surging late in the year and making noise in the NCAA Tournament. In the 2015-2016 season, Syracuse stumbled into the tournament as a #10 seed, only to improbably reach the Final Four. Two years later, as a #11 seed and one of the four "play-in" at-large teams, the Orange reached the Elite 8, falling narrowly to Duke. This year's team lacks the traditional interior bruiser that Orange fans have come to expect from the likes of Rakeem Christmas or Hakeem Warrick, but the team is chock full of quality perimeter shooters. The coach's son Buddy, a junior guard, is the team's leading scorer at 16 points per game as a streaky three-point shooter. Former Illinois transfer Alan Griffin and upstate New York high school prodigy Joe Girard are the two other main offensive creators, and have both been playing at their best of late.

An early season sweep at the hands of Pitt had most bracket prognosticators leaving the Orange for dead as they say with a 10-6 record in early February. Since then, they've rattled off a 6-2 stretch, including quality wins over North Carolina and Clemson. If Syracuse can surprise the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday with an upset, their tournament position will be much stronger. If the Orange fail to come through as a 5.5-point underdog, they will be sweating on Selection Sunday to see if their name is called.

Status: Stock up (Projected Last Team into the bracket/ #12 seed)

Wichita State

As things stand right now, the Shockers are the American Athletic Conference (AAC) #1 seed and yet find themselves in a likely "must-win" scenario. With a NET ranking of #64, the Shockers sit amongst the likes of Michigan State, Seton Hall, and other teams that appear to be on the wrong side of the bubble. Without winning their conference tournament, Selection Sunday could be a nervous day for Coach Isaac Brown's team.

Friday's first game will match Wichita State up against the winner of Thursday's Temple vs. South Florida game. The Shockers wouldn't face up against another tournament-quality team until the hypothetical AAC championship against either #2 seed Houston or #3 seed UConn. The Shockers, however, will be playing undermanned. Two centers - Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler and Josaphat Bilau - are currently nursing injuries and were labeled as "game-time decisions." Additionally, Coach Brown announced on Wednesday that two unidentified players would be unavailable due to COVID-19 protocols. The simple answer is to win out and control their own destiny, but playing without their big men and not knowing the impact of which players are out due to COVID-19 could complicate that simple strategy.

Status: Projected automatic qualifier from AAC (Projected #12 seed)

Florida

For the second consecutive season, the Florida Gators find themselves safely in the bracket but also massively underperforming their preseason expectations. Coach Mike White's team sits at 13-8, with a match against Vanderbilt on Thursday to open the SEC tournament. Outside of a shocking upset run at the SEC title or an embarrassing loss to #12 seed Vanderbilt, the Gators should find themselves somewhere between the #8 and #10 seed lines, with a difficult first-round matchup. The Gators' quality wins over West Virginia and Tennessee do prove that this team can fight alongside some of the bigger dogs, but their recent performance (3-4 record since the beginning of February) should have you worried when filling out your bracket.

For Gators fans, there should be a lot of hope as the team builds for next year. None of the main contributors are seniors, and none of them are also obvious NBA Draft early entrants. Sophomore guards Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis form a strong in-state nucleus to start with, and 6-foot-11 junior forward Colin Castleton emerged this year as a titan out of Daytona Beach to be reckoned with. Overshadowing this season has been the loss of Keyontae Johnson, who collapsed during a game in December and has not played since. This season would have likely taken a much more positive turn with Johnson available, as he was their top returning player and the top offensive option in nonconference play.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected #9 seed)

UCLA

Coach Mick Cronin was considered an odd fit to lead the Bruins, bringing his tough-as-nails defensive approach from Cincinnati. In his second season, it is safe to say that he's done a better-than-expected job thus far, and the recruiting has been strong. Sophomore guard Johnny Juzang was a seldomly-used bench player with Kentucky as a freshman, but has broken out this year scoring 14.2 points per game after transferring back home to Los Angeles. Fellow sophomore point guard Tyger Campbell, meanwhile, is the floor general and was a relatively overlooked recruit from Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

The UCLA Bruins will need to build some momentum in the Pac-12 Tournament if they hope to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. They enter the Pac-12 Tournament on a 3-game losing streak (to 3 likely tournament teams in Colorado, Oregon and USC), but do have quality wins over Colorado and Arizona to hang their hats on. This team is very talented, but a first-round Pac-12 Tournament loss to Oregon State might slide them a few slots down the bubble into perilous territory.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected #10 seed)

Arizona

Not too long ago, Arizona was considered one of the elite national programs, earning high seed after high seed year-after-year. Coach Sean Miller has been at the helm since he took the job in 2009, coming across the country from Xavier. While NCAA investigations have taken some of the luster off of the Arizona program, Miller's team likely would have made last year's tournament, and they would have been squarely on this year's bubble, if not for a self-imposed postseason ban this year.

Status: Ineligible (Self-imposed ban)

Saint John's

At 16-10, and with losses to Georgetown, Marquette, Butler and DePaul, St. John's does not have a sterling bubble resume. However, the Red Storm do have their share of strong wins (UConn & Villanova) and proved over a 6-game streak mid-season that they can pull together wins in bunches. Sophomore forward Julian Champagnie averages nearly 20 points per game and is among the top scorers of not only the Big East, but the country. Big East Freshman of the Year Posh Alexander has a great overall game from the point guard position, but has been nursing a wrist injury. If Alexander is able to return for the Big East Tournament, the Red Storm would be a good candidate to get a futures bet down on now.

Coach Mike Anderson's team enters the Big East Tournament as the #4 seed facing Seton Hall, a team that is reeling down the stretch. A victory over the Pirates would likely match the Red Storm up with top-seeded Villanova. The Wildcats are currently playing without two starters in Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, and St. John's does have a win over them earlier this year. Wins over Seton Hall and Villanova would strengthen St. John's at-large resume, as well as put the Red Storm one win away from claiming an automatic berth.

Status: Stock up (Projected to miss tournament)

Projected Bracket

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be Saint Louis, Maryland, Louisville and Syracuse. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Michigan State, Colorado State, Xavier, and Seton Hall. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps. Congratulations to Liberty (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South), Drexel (Colonial), Cleveland State (Horizon), Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley), Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), UNC-Greensboro (Southern), Appalachian State (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit) and Gonzaga (West Coast) for winning their respective conference tournaments and officially punching their tickets to the Big Dance.

* - indicates pending NCAA appeal

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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