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The top main-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 5, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With only a couple of day games today, we're left with a robust 11-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today's matchups feature a surprisingly thin pool of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 7/5/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Justin Steele, CHC vs. MIL ($10,300 DK, $9,700 FD)
Justin Steele continues to impress during his breakout 2023 campaign. Through 15 starts, he sports a 3.00 xERA and 3.83 xFIP. That includes an outstanding .273 xwOBA, 85 mph average exit velocity, 30.7% hard-hit rate, 5.4% barrel rate, .332 xSLG, and 5.6% walk rate. Steele only strikes out batters at a middling 22.3% rate, but he is inducing consistently weak contact at an elite level. He's allowed just three total home runs through 85 1/3 innings pitched this season.
The Brewers' offense is the most favorable matchup Steele could hope to draw. They carry a league-worst .653 OPS against left-handed pitchers, alongside a similarly terrible .135 ISO and 80 wRC+. Further, Milwaukee strikes out at a 27.9% rate versus southpaws, the highest mark in baseball. Their lineup is not entirely devoid of talent, but everything appears to be working in Steele's favor today.
Pablo Lopez, MIN vs. KC ($10,100 DK, $10,800 FD)
Right up there with Steele, Pablo Lopez has a strong case for being today's top pitching option. Though his 4.24 ERA doesn't suggest he'd be worth the premium price, his underlying numbers are significantly more encouraging. Through 17 starts, Lopez boasts a 3.09 xERA and 3.58 xFIP. That consists of a .277 xwOBA, 87.5 mph average exit velocity, .209 xBA, and .353 xSLG. He's a slightly more volatile arm than Steele, but Lopez's best characteristic is his outstanding 29.8% strikeout rate.
Lopez also draws an easy matchup today in the form of the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City scores just 3.8 runs per game on the season. They boast a .661 OPS against right-handed pitchers, the third-worst in baseball, including a .140 ISO and 79 wRC+. The Royals additionally strike out at a generous 24.5% rate. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are always capable of big days, but the rest of this lineup is underwhelming. Look for Lopez to dominate and rack up the strikeouts today.
Also consider: Michael Soroka, Kodai Senga, Alex Cobb
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Cal Quantrill ($6,400 DK, $4,300 FD)
Considering he leads the National League in home runs, Matt Olson isn't exactly a creative pick. Still, getting different isn't always the best path, and Olson is absolutely shredding the ball this season. On top of his 28-home run total, he's slashing .250/.354/.571. That includes a .572 xSLG, 56.3% hard-hit rate, 94.4 mph average exit velocity, and 20.3% barrel rate.
Cal Quantrill looks awful in 2023. Through 12 starts, he carries a 5.98 xERA and 5.53 xFIP. Quantrill has surrendered a .373 xwOBA, .492 xSLG, .296 xBA, and a horrible 12.3% strikeout rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .486 against Quantrill.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Randy Vasquez ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
Gunnar Henderson has terrorized right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .522 slugging percentage, .269 ISO, and 11 home runs. Overall, he sports a 50.7% hard-hit rate, 92 mph average exit velocity, and 12.5% barrel rate versus all pitchers. Henderson has seemingly replaced Cedric Mullins as the Orioles' leadoff batter and will hope to take advantage of the hitter-friendly right field at Yankee Stadium, all adding to his case.
Randy Vasquez has posted consecutive strong outings during his first two MLB appearances and sports a 1.72 ERA thus far. Still, he's undermined by a small sample size and a 4.12 xERA. Vasquez also posted a 5.11 ERA through 13 starts in Triple-A this season, so there's no reason to believe he'll continue to pitch this well. Today presents a good opportunity for regression to kick in.
Brandon Belt – 1B/OF, TOR vs. Lance Lynn ($3,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
Brandon Belt is having a solid season, slashing .257/.363/.443 with six home runs and a 126 wRC+. He's not the flashiest play that I'll highlight today, but he generally hits near the top of the order against right-handed pitching and matches up better than most Blue Jays bats against Lance Lynn. For the price and positional flexibility on DraftKings, Belt will be an easy guy to slot into your builds.
Lynn has surrendered a .456 xSLG and 10.9% barrel rate to opposing hitters this season. His problems are almost particularly concentrated on left-handed hitters, who are slugging .655 against him with 16 home runs. Most of the Blue Jays' key bats are righties, but Belt should thrive in this matchup.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF, LAA vs. Seth Lugo ($6,600 DK, $4,600 FD)
Shohei Ohtani is the scariest hitter in baseball right now. He's slashing .300/.387/.658 with a major-league-leading 31 home runs. That includes an absurd .653 xSLG, 18.9% barrel rate, 52.9% hard-hit rate, .432 xwOBA, and .295 xBA. Ohtani is live to go yard any day.
The Padres' starting pitcher has yet to be confirmed, but at the time of my writing this, it looks like Seth Lugo lines up. Lugo surrenders a .451 xSLG and .269 xBA overall. He's allowed left-handed hitters to slug .426 against him. Even if Lugo doesn't take the mound today, Ohtani is live to go yard any day he's in the lineup.
Joc Pederson – OF, SF vs. Darren McCaughan ($4,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
Joc Pederson's overall numbers are slightly underwhelming, but the underlying metrics are very exciting. He boasts a .521 xSLG, .391 xwOBA, 50.9% hard-hit rate, 14.7% barrel rate, and 91.3 mph average exit velocity. Pederson is a little premium for his level of output this season, but he's crushing the ball and that's bound to start paying off for him.
Darren McCaughan has only 13 innings of MLB service time, resulting in a forgettable 7.62 ERA. The sample size is too small to take overly seriously, but McCaughan additionally struggled in the minors. He posted a 6.56 ERA through 13 starts in Triple-A this season and a 4.55 ERA in 28 Triple-A starts last season.
Jake Bauers – OF, NYY vs. Dean Kremer ($2,400 DK, $2,700 FD)
Bauers is getting consistent opportunities to hit near the top of the order against right-handed pitchers. He's posted a phenomenal .574 xSLG, 20.7% barrel rate, .388 xwOBA, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and 11.6% walk rate. Bauers isn't hitting for a particularly high average. When he does hit the ball, the numbers show his approach is much better than his .227/.313/.477 slash line suggests. Regardless, he's a really cheap bat.
Dean Kremer is pitching worse than his 5.04 ERA tells us. Through 17 starts, he carries a 6.02 xERA. That includes a .524 xSLG, .295 xBA, 45.6% hard-hit are, 11% barrel rate, and .374 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters have brutalized Kremer this season to the tune of a .559 slugging percentage.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Cal Quantrill
Despite previously being a reliable arm, Cal Quantrill is not getting it done this season. Through 12 starts, he carries a 5.98 xERA and 5.53 xFIP. Quantrill has surrendered a .373 xwOBA, .492 xSLG, .296 xBA, and a horrible 12.3% strikeout rate. He's surrendered six earned runs or more in three consecutive outings entering today.
The Braves bring debatably the league's scariest offense. Atlanta scores 5.6 runs per game on the season behind elite names like Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy. They are about as expensive as a stack can get, but it's worth the spend if you can get there. They'll undoubtedly be chalky, though I'd recommend at least rostering a one-off bat or mini stack of Atlanta.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy
New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer
It was highlighted above, but Dean Kremer is pitching worse than his 5.04 ERA tells us. Through 17 starts, he carries a 6.02 xERA. That includes a .524 xSLG, .295 xBA, 45.6% hard-hit are, 11% barrel rate, and .374 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters have brutalized Kremer this season to the tune of a .559 slugging percentage.
The Yankees are still without their best hitter Aaron Judge, but they look like a great discount stack on today's slate. All of their hitters are under $5K on DraftKings today, and the matchup and setting are very offense-friendly. Look to midrange plays like Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo as cores to your stacks, and punt plays like Jake Bauers for a cheaper alternative. New York will be a very accessible stack to roster.
Favorite Plays: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader, Giancarlo Stanton, Jake Bauers
Also Consider: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
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