X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Madison Bumgarner - No Longer Among the Fantasy Elite?

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher (SP) Madison Bumgarner has seen his fantasy baseball ADP fall dramatically in 2019. Riley Mrack examines whether the once-elite pitcher is being undervalued or could wind up disappointing owners again.

The San Fransisco Giants have benefitted from the spoils that come with having, arguably, the best pitcher of this decade. Since Madison Bumgarner’s rookie season in 2010, the Giants were a dominant team for the majority of his first seven seasons. Backed by Bumgarner's clutch postseason play, the Giants won three World Series in 2010,’12, and ’14. These accomplishments put fear into the eyes of every other major league team whenever the calendar flipped to an even year.

Often called as one of the first few pitching names off the board during this span, Bumgarner supported his fantasy managers with magnificent results. He was elected to four straight All-Star games and had two top-four Cy Young Award finishes as he looked like a potential Hall of Famer accomplishing all of this at age-27.

Entering the 2017 season, MadBum was ready to build on an already decorated career when his infamous dirt bike accident occurred at the end of April. Missing over half of the season with bruised ribs and a sprained throwing shoulder, he also suffered a metacarpal injury that derailed the start of his 2018 season. After another partial season last year, Bumgarner’s 2017 and 2018 numbers haven’t resembled the elite ace that we've been accustomed to in the first half of this decade. It’s more than just the surface numbers that paint the picture of Bumgarner’s diminishing value. There is a lot to uncover to see if he will be able to return to his All-Star caliber seasons. Let’s take a look below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2010-2016 Stardom

First, we should take a peek at Bumgarner’s stat line from his June 2010 debut to the end of the 2016 season.

Accumulating 100 wins in six and a half seasons, he pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.89 K/9, and 2.07 BB/9. These are superior numbers, but remember these are only his averages. He took it to another level from 2013-16 illustrated in the chart below:

Wins ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
2013 13 2.77 1.03 8.9 2.8
2014 18 2.98 1.09 9.1 1.8
2015 18 2.92 1.01 9.7 1.6
2016 15 2.74 1.02 10.0 2.1

If it weren’t for a man named Clayton Kershaw, Bumgarner would have led baseball in most of these categories during this stretch.

Since his call-up at age 20, Bumgarner was as durable of an arm you could find in baseball. He averaged over 212 innings pitched from 2011-16, and that’s not including the innings that he threw in three playoff years. This workload was a remarkable feat because in 2018 there were only five pitchers with more than 212 IP and in 2017 there was only one. A workhorse pitcher like Bumgarner was and still is hard to come by.

 

2017-2018 Postpartum

Bumgarner has only been able to throw just over 240 IP over the last two seasons. With the lack of innings, the lack of elite numbers has coat-tailed on this fact as well. Since his return from his shoulder injury in July of 2017, he has posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.67 K/9, and 2.49 BB/9. These are still pretty decent numbers in the grand scheme of it all, and most major leaguers would be content putting up this kind of line during a season. For Bumgarner, however, these numbers are unsatisfying, and it’s his underlying stats that are more concerning.

MadBum had a FIP of 4.15 and an xFIP of 4.30 in these previous two years combined, suggesting his 3.33 ERA should be almost a full run higher than what it was. His .270 BABIP was somehow lower than his 2013-16 mark of .274 despite some weaker metrics. His LD/GB/FB is relatively close to his standard rate, but it’s still trending in the wrong direction as his 2018 LD% reached 22.4%, compared to his 2013-2016 average mark of 19.9%.

The southpaw’s Hard% is the most worrying stat. Since 2015 it has risen every year, starting at 25.8% in that season, it reached 35.0% in 2017 and 41.6% in 2018. This increase is partially due to batters getting the barrel on the baseball, as it’s no coincidence its also risen every year since 2015. Peaking at an 8.4% Barrel% last season, it's a significant climb from his 4.7% mark he established in 2015.

With the rise in hard-hit balls, an inevitable climb in home runs has also ensued. A pre-injury 0.89 HR/9 has catapulted to a 1.22 HR/9 post-injury. His HR/FB also seen a jump from 10.0% to 12.1% because of the hard contact, not a dramatic leap but there's still some cause for uneasiness.

 

Strikeout Boredom

Directly associated with the decline in batted ball metrics is Bumgarner’s lack of deception and swing-and-miss ability that he possessed before his dirt bike accident. He’s never been a flame-thrower, but he’s lost almost two MPH off his fastball since 2015. Clocking in at an average of 91.4 MPH in the combined 2017-18 seasons, this dip in velocity has resulted in a decline of his two best pitches: his fastball, and his curve.

FB Whiff Swing FB BAA   FB SLG Crv Whiff Swing Crv BAA  Crv SLG
2013-2016 24.7% .220 .371 39.2% .163 .236
2017-2018 14.5% .277 .527 31.0% .193 .296

Although he still gets batters out at a stable rate with his curveball, the whiffs have gone down substantially. His fastball wasn’t fooling anyone either as it got crushed in these last two shortened seasons. His 9.2% SwStr% and 7.57 K/9 in 2018 were both career lows, and his contact rates were the highest since his pre-All-Star days in 2012. Bumgarner also struggled with command as he failed to get more batters to chase pitches out of the strike zone resulting in a career-low 2.98 BB/9 in 2018.

 

Value Moving Forward

Whether it's fair to blame Bumgarner’s stats from the past two dwindling seasons solely on his shoulder and hand injuries remains to be seen. Perhaps his regression is the effect of all the accumulated innings years prior or the league's ability to adapt to his pitching habits. The fact remains that it’ll be difficult to see him return to his elite 2013-16 form.

We can’t help but compare him to a former Giants pitcher, Tim Lincecum, who fell out of all fantasy relevancy after having some dominating seasons. Bumgarner won’t see this same fate seeing how he's as big of a competitor as any player in the game. Baseball is a game of constant change and improvements, so it's unlikely that he'll let himself fizzle out and fall off the fantasy map completely.

The drop in velocity and inability to generate strikeouts like he once did is a massive hit to MadBum’s fantasy value moving forward. He has become more hittable than ever and will have to modify his method of approach to keep runners off the base paths. Still a good pitcher, he’s a shade of his former self and can no longer be trusted as an SP1 in the fantasy game.

Turning 30 on August 1, it appears that the player we have seen the past two seasons will be closer to the player we see moving forward. Bumgarner better fits in on a fantasy squad as at least an SP2 but more in the SP3 territory due to his lack of strikeouts. Wins will be hard for MadBum to find as well, given the current state of the Giants. Currently being selected at an ADP of 72.5, it would be advisable to take a pitcher at this price with more ability to throw the chair and who can put up similar ERA and WHIP numbers (e.g., Berrios, Foltynewicz).

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Conforto4 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
Jace Jung4 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 At Triple-A
Jon Singleton4 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Niko Goodrum5 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Nick Kurtz5 hours ago

Belts Third Home Run In Last Four Games
Shohei Ohtani5 hours ago

Blasts Walk-Off Home Run
Zac Veen5 hours ago

Triples, Collects Four RBI At Triple-A On Wednesday
Zac Gallen5 hours ago

Strikes Out 13
Luke Waddell5 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Chandler Simpson6 hours ago

With A Two-Run Triple, Stolen Base On Wednesday
Los Angeles Chargers6 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
Austin Gomber7 hours ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler7 hours ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
7 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals7 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Aroldis Chapman7 hours ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet7 hours ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Tutu Atwell7 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Rafael Devers8 hours ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Xavier Edwards8 hours ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso8 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill10 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday10 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets10 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo10 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford10 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki10 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis10 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet10 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana10 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Dean Wade10 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young11 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin11 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil11 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm11 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace12 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard12 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta12 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen12 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz12 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
13 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
13 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
14 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams14 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns15 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots16 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
16 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody16 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers16 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers18 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans18 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett18 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns19 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals19 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown19 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin20 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner20 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford20 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday20 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown20 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham20 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis20 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard22 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel22 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko22 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson22 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson22 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin23 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young1 day ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge1 day ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä2 days ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres6 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer6 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira6 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]