RADIO
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Lynn Bowden is a rookie who could be ready to break out in the late part of the 2020 NFL season. Pierre Camus profiles the versatile offensive weapon with an eye on his fantasy football value, including dynasty leagues.
Lynn Bowden Jr. is quite possibly the most exciting NFL player to come out of the University of Kentucky, with apologies to Benny Snell Jr. This is not just due to his speed, but his ability to play multiple positions.
Despite his electric NCAA highlights and desirable scouting profile, Bowden's 2020 has been a year largely filled with disappointment for various reasons. Many of us can undoubtedly relate.
As the NFL regular season winds down, however, his fortunes may be turning around and fantasy managers, particularly in dynasty leagues, may want to take notice.
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Wildcat Days
It's fitting that Bowden was a Wildcat playing for the University of Kentucky because his college career was marked by his versatility as a running back turned wide receiver who found himself playing quarterback in his final season. The lack of a clearly-defined role or getting the dreaded "tweener" tag would have been a liability in the past, but in today's NFL, it is an asset.
NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay pointed to this in his pre-draft analysis:
"He’s one of those guys, the more you study of him, the more you appreciate what he can do in today’s league and how everyone is just an offensive weapon not pigeon-holed into being one thing. That’s what really makes him attractive.”
As a junior, Bowden was second on the team in passing yards and punt-return yardage and first in rushing, receiving, and kick return yardage. He led Kentucky to an 8-5 record in a tough SEC East capped off by a win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl. In that final game, Bowden ran for 233 yards and two touchdowns in addition to passing for 73 yards and a score.
He was already being referred to as a unicorn, a term that somehow signifies nothing in particular yet needs no explanation.
My story on Lynn Bowden, author of one of the most unique seasons in CFB history and a potential NFL unicorn. https://t.co/l8w0iowaGx
— Adam Kramer (@KegsnEggs) April 15, 2020
Alas, Bowden wasn't able to run at the NFL Combine due to a hamstring injury and his Kentucky Pro Day was canceled due to the pandemic. Although he was never projected to be a first-round pick, his stock fell a bit and he was taken with the 80th overall pick by the Raiders, who made him one of three receivers in their 2020 draft class along with Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards.
NFL Role Redefined
At 5'11", 204 lb, Bowden is built similarly to Curtis Samuel, who also played a dual-threat role in college. He even comes in a little bigger than accomplished receivers like Jarvis Landry and Tyler Lockett.
Bowden is currently a slot receiver out of necessity but it is also his most natural fit in the pros. Bowden was obviously not going to be a quarterback, as the Wildcat offense is a far cry from NFL systems, even as much as has been adapted from college in recent years. The nail in that coffin is a 47.3% completion rate and extremely limited usage as a passer with 35 completions in 74 attempts and a 3-3 TD-INT rate.
The initial thought was that his elusiveness and familiarity lining up in the backfield might make him a running back. He piled up most of his yards on the ground as a junior, gaining 1,468 rushing yards for 7.9 yards per attempt. Conversely, he only totaled 1,303 receiving yards over his three-year college career.
As someone without a set role, the transition to the pros would be easier to running back than wide receiver. There are numerous route combinations that need to be learned and chemistry to develop with a quarterback, not to mention the nuances of getting open against press coverage. This may explain why Bowden struggled in training camp with the Raiders and was unceremoniously traded along with a sixth-round pick two weeks before the start of the season in exchange for a fourth-rounder.
A Concerning Start
Aside from a poor showing on the field, there were also rumors of character concerns amid his sluggish summer training camp sessions. The Athletic's Vic Tafur reported, "Some at the team facility thought the rookie was more concerned with picking up new cars than the playbook, and on the field Bowden looked measured and not explosive. On top of a lack of breakaway speed, he was always getting blasted when it was his turn to pass block. There were also some growing concerns that he was getting more and more distracted in Las Vegas and that he might be an influence on other rookies like Henry Ruggs III and Damon Arnette."
Bowden was selected in the third round, so the Raiders essentially burned two picks to get a fourth-round pick and rid themselves of him. That goes to show how eager they were to turn him away. It looked like a smart move with Bowden contributing nothing to his new team in Miami for the majority of the season. As it stands, they may be regretting that deal now.
Bowden was sparingly used by the Dolphins the first few weeks, placed on the COVID list for a time, then activated on Nov. 12. He wouldn't see the field until Week 12 against the Jets for 22 snaps, receiving one incomplete target. To that point in the season, his offensive contributions included four rush attempts for nine yards and one reception for -1 yard.
Then, with the move back to Tua Tagovailoa as starting QB, the Fins tried infusing more speed into their receiver rotation. This was already a massively depleted unit after both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out of the season, Preston Williams moved to IR with a sprained foot after Week 9 and Isaiah Ford was traded to New England (he has since been released and returned to Miami). A banged-up backfield and nagging injury to Jakeem Grant didn't help things either.
As a result of his increased usage with a 41% snap count, Bowden caught four passes for 41 yards and carried once for 11 yards. The breakout came a week later when Bowden was on the field for 59 offensive snaps and caught a team-high seven passes for 82 yards on nine targets. Most of this came in a second-half comeback effort against the Chiefs where the team was in pass-only mode. It also helped that DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki all left the game early due to various injuries. This explains the sudden heavy usage but it also may illuminate the Dolphins' coaching staff as to an obvious solution to their depth chart woes.
It was his first high-volume game but an important trend was already developing for his fantasy value - slot usage.
Miami Dolphins slot snaps, per @PFF, over the last two weeks:
3. DeVante Parker, 20
2. Mike Gesicki, 32
1. Lynn Bowden, 54— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 14, 2020
Out of the top-10 WR leaders in receptions, five of them line up in the slot for the majority of snaps. If Bowden can establish himself as the regular slot receiver, there is a clear path to regular targets. As previously mentioned, the Dolphins are extremely thin at receiver and have gone all year without an established wideout in that slot, most often leaving tight end Mike Gesicki as the Y receiver. With Gesicki likely out for Week 15 if not longer, Bowden can continue to thrive in that role even if DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant don't miss any time.
Dynasty Value
Preceding Week 15 of the 2020 season, Bowden is just now being added on many dynasty rosters. Just as in reality, his biggest asset in fantasy is his versatility as the rare player who qualifies at both RB and WR. Although he won't be adding QB to this list like Taysom Hill, it's useful to be able to add a slot receiver to the RB spot. This is especially the case in 2020 when few players outside the top 20 can be depended on for consistent value.
Bowden's dynasty value has already jumped ahead of trendy preseason picks such as A.J. Dillon and KeShawn Vaughn and his late-season performance has put him ahead of apparent busts such as Joshua Kelley and Zack Moss. I feel comfortable ranking Bowden as the No. 7 rookie RB for dynasty as of right now.
In the grand scheme of things, he can be considered a top-40 dynasty running back due to his pass-catching floor and tremendous upside. The Dolphins may feel like an overachieving unit this year but remember that this team was rebuilt from the ground up in 2019 under head coach Brian Flores. This offense is still growing under their new franchise quarterback and Bowden's slow start after switching teams preseason should also be taken into account when projecting his growth.
The main concern is that the Dolphins are almost guaranteed to add a wide receiver, if not two, in the upcoming draft. They have multiple first-rounders, thanks to Bill O'Brien. Many have projected them to take either Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, or Jaylen Waddle with an early pick. Both Smith and Waddle were teammates of Tagovailoa at Alabama and any of these wideouts would make an immediate case to demand targets alongside DeVante Parker. With Preston Williams presumed to return and compete for a starting position, Bowden could get squeezed out of the rotation and play a more situational role.
He may even turn back to the familiarity of being a Swiss Army Knife for the offense, lining up in the backfield and moving around the field similar to Cordarrelle Patterson. This obviously makes him less valuable in fantasy, as his usage would be limited and less predictable. At this point, however, the cost is nearly nothing to acquire his services on the cheap for rebuilding dynasty squads. Much like Miami did, offering up a mid-round pick may be well worth the investment for a dynamic player who is on the rise and could keep soaring.
lynn bowden taking souls pic.twitter.com/0SNB334MSe
— josh houtz (@houtz) December 13, 2020
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