RADIO
We continue our long-running series of articles debating fantasy rankings with a player that is sure to be one of the first few pitchers off the board in all formats. Or is he?
RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.
Today, the topic is the young New York Yankees ace Luis Severino. Bill is bullish on his sky-high potential while Pierre thinks he might be overrated. Let's get ready to rumble!
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2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Luis Severino
| Ranking | Tier | Player | Position | Kyle | Nick | Pierre | Jeff | Harris | Bill | Composite |
| 36 | 4 | Luis Severino | SP | 38 | 36 | 54 | 36 | 38 | 29 | 38.167 |
Bill Dubiel's Ranking: #29 overall
Do you remember in mid-2016 when Luis Severino was sent down to AAA? It was perfectly warranted--his changeup was garbage, he couldn't locate his fastball, he didn't have command of his put-away pitch. Now he's a no-doubt top-10 starting pitcher in fantasy, and I am here with my shirt off ready to party about it.
Let's just go ahead and get rid of the typical "yeah, but"... the FIP. Fielder Independent Pitching is more indicative of a pitcher's pure performance, taking out some of the "luck" associated with balls in play that can have a positive or negative impact on ERA. Severino backed up his 2.98 ERA with a 3.07 FIP, and with a BABIP of .272 I feel pretty confident saying that there was very little luck involved in Severino's outstanding 2017 season.
The youngster also made big strides in the strikeout game as well. He averaged 10.71 K/9 over the course of the entire season, thanks in large part to a renewed confidence in his fastball and the eventual embrace of his change-up. After throwing the change less than 10% of the time during the 2016 season, Severino leaned on it in 13.5% of his pitches last year. The ability to change speeds significantly impacted his strikeout rate, and now that he's figured it out it's something he can maintain moving forward.
The 14 wins from last season can also be improved upon, particularly given how often Severino should find himself ahead. I don't think I need to go into great detail about how the Yankees have a ton of guys who hit the ball really far, do I? Ultimately I've got Severino pegged for 16-18 wins and an ERA right around 3.00. He should be able to at least repeat the 230 strikeouts from last season as well, and should have a very real shot at challenging for the Cy Young Award in 2018.
Pierre Camus' Ranking: #54 overall
All it takes is one. As in, all it takes is one disastrous start to inflate a starting pitcher's ERA for the season. Luis Severino is a top-20 SP for certain, but when we get to the discussion of top-10 pitchers or third-round picks, that's too risky for a 24-year-old that has shown a propensity for disastrous starts and happens to pitch in the most homer-friendly park in the majors.
In his breakout 2017 campaign, he was hurt by four starts where he allowed five or more runs. He had four such outings in just 11 starts in 2016. The good news is that he wasn't all over the zone issuing walks left and right in those games. The bad news is that he was just plain hit hard and couldn't find his way out of trouble. The Wild Card game against Minnesota was a perfect example of this--Severino couldn't even escape the first inning after allowing two homers early.
To Bill's earlier points, Severino has all the peripherals you look for in a top-notch starter. His 4.51 K:BB ratio was fifth in the AL, his 6.98 hits per nine placed him third, and he was also third in Adjusted ERA+ at 152. He is absolutely someone worth your first SP2 spot in 2018, just not your SP1.
Severino is currently the seventh pitcher coming off the board according to NFBC data, with an average pick of 33. Our consensus ranking of 36 is spot on when it comes to his perceived value, but in my opinion it's a small leap of faith that he will be able to improve on last year's numbers and outperform the more trustworthy arms around him.
Here's a quick K/BB comparison of Severino and a few other starting pitchers with five years or less MLB experience that are in the same ADP ballpark:
The jump that Severino made in command was quite drastic from one year to the next. While his K/BB was above the likes of Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, Robbie Ray, and Carlos Martinez, it isn't an extraordinary difference. Here's a look at each pitcher's WHIP over the last few seasons:
Again, Severino is the lowest but not by much. This begs the question: do you need to take a chance on Severino in round three or could you wait a full round or two for nearly identical production? It's interesting how so many people were skeptical of Robbie Ray's newfound improvements last year, yet nobody doubts that Severino can repeat his performance. Ray actually finds himself in a better situation now that the humidor is being installed in Chase Field, while Severino still pitches half his games in the bandbox they call Yankee Stadium. Likewise, Darvish is heading out of the dry Texas heat into the friendly confines of Wrigley Field (and the National League). Both pitchers are just as likely to rack up wins as Severino, playing for playoff-caliber teams.
The common assumption among fantasy owners is that a young stud who breaks out will easily be able to repeat last year's numbers, with the potential to perform even better. Unfortunately, regression often rears its ugly head and even elite talents may take a step back before ultimately finding consistency. For what it's worth, I'm a believer in Severino, just not at his current asking price.
