Time to Buy into Luis Castillo Again... Right?

July 3, 2021

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled in 2021 but is starting to look like himself again. Dennis Sosic evaluates Castillo's fantasy baseball value and whether it's time to buy into him.

As we get ready to celebrate Independence Day this weekend, MLB games will be immersed in celebrating baseball and fireworks at the ballpark with family and friends.

Fantasy managers will be enamored with getting their lineups in this weekend while their fantasy teams are gearing up for their playoff lives. One player that has fantasy managers pulling their hair out so far this season is Cincinnati Reds' right-hander Luis Castillo. Castillo came into the 2021 season as the bonafide ace, but he sure didn't pitch like one to start off this season.

Castillo treated fantasy managers brutally from the first pitch this season. His severe drop in effectiveness the first two months led to Castillo being dropped in some leagues. However, Castillo turned it on in June, which raises the question: Is it time to buy or sell Luis Castillo?

The Reds' Ace

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo was tabbed as the team's Opening Day starter for the second straight year after an impressive 2020 season. Castillo ranked sixth in the National League with an 11.4 K/9 rate and registered a 3.21 ERA in 70 innings while striking out 89 batters and walking just 24. He combined those splendid stats with a 2.65 FIP and 154 ERA+.

His breakout 2019 campaign preceded his 2020 season as he posted a 15-8 record with a 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 226 strikeouts, and 140+ ERA across 190.2 innings pitched.

Castillo has developed into an All-Star caliber ace with Cy Young potential. He is entering his prime with a phenomenal four-pitch mix highlighted by an 88.2 mph changeup set up by a 97 mph fastball and sinker and has miffed batters to a .177 xBA .233 xwOBA against last season.

Castillo entered the 2021 season with a 3.62 career ERA and was selected as a top ten pitcher off the board in fantasy drafts. The right-hander was targeted as an SP1 with elite strikeout upside as we geared up for the 2021 season. Instead, Castillo made his fantasy managers concerned with a horrendous start to the 2021 season.

Slow start won't end for Castillo

Castillo has historically been a slow starter, but no one could have imagined how rough his start would be this season.

The Reds were 1-7 in his first eight starts of the season. He had the worst ERA in the majors at 7.71 and allowed an average of seven hits and five runs per start. Hitters were teeing off on the right-hander to the tune of league-worst .344 BAA and .380 BABIP.

The cause for concern continues with horrific numbers in which he led the league in dubious categories. His 32 runs and 55 hits allowed were the most in MLB. His peripheral metrics were downright awful as well. His 4.83 xERA and 4.33 SIERA have reached the worst marks of his career. The fact that his .348 xWOBA is so outrageously sky-high is proof that Castillo was throwing batting practice to that point of the season.

These shocking numbers led to the buzz that Castillo might be sent down to Triple-A to get his mechanics and mind right. Fortunately, Castillo performed another turnaround that eased the minds of Reds fans and fantasy managers.

The Ace is Back!

The calendar turns to June, and the wait is finally over! The beginning of summer? No, the fantasy revival of Reds ace Luis Castillo. His turnaround in June has been extraordinary. Over five June starts, Castillo finished with a 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP with 32 strikeouts over 31.2 innings. He has pitched six or more innings four times over his last five starts while also producing 2.77 FIP and 16% K-BB.
The turnaround started on May 29 with his start against the Chicago Cubs. He entered that start with a 7.61 ERA and 1.8 WHIP. According to Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, his turnaround comes down to pitching execution:

“You’re talking about pitch selection, you’re talking about where he’s trying to throw his pitches and how he’s executing as well as maybe some mechanical things, too,” Johnson said. “We had a lot going on for a while, but it settled in since then.”

Since that start, Castillo was on the bump six times, and he owns a 1.96 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 37 innings. His fastball has been hitting 100 mph on the radar gun. Castillo also lowered his ERA from 7.61 to 5.08 and his WHIP from 1.8 to 1.46 while dropping his batting average against from .328 in May to the current.268 mark.

Buy or Sell Castillo?

The dilemma for fantasy managers is figuring out if Castillo is back on track to be the ace he was projected to be at the season's onset. The Reds are pushing for a postseason berth, and Castillo is essential for their playoff chances at this elite level.

Castillo stayed sharp in his first start in July, retiring 11 of his first 12 San Diego Padres hitters. Unfortunately, the rain came in the fifth inning that resulted in a 52-minute rain delay. Castillo returned after the delay in a somewhat shocking move. Overall, he allowed three runs over 6.1 innings while throwing a no-hitter into the fifth inning. Fantasy managers would have loved to see what his line would have been without the rain delay.

The Reds ace looked dominant, hitting 98-99 mph on his fastball while striking out six hitters. The great stretch of pitching continues for Castillo, which suggests a substantial second half is coming for the right-hander.
The time to buy low on Castillo has passed. However, his recent performance shows that fantasy managers should have been patient with the former All-Star hurler.

His overall stats of a 3-10 record with a 5.08 ERA with a 1,46 WHIP could still scare fantasy managers into a potential deal. However, astute fantasy managers are now well aware that Castillo has picked up his game immensely and should be a target to acquire in all fantasy formats.

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