RADIO
Things got somewhat back to normal last night with only one colossal upset and only one team messing around with swaps. After losing game one, KT swapped out mid and jungle, nearly lost game two playing too passively, and then did lose game three. Hopefully, they learn their lesson that these desperation roster swaps, ain't it, chief.
It looks like a much slower slate than last night, and after some of those snoozefests, that's tough to stomach. Speaking of hard to stomach, Gen G is in the late game again, so we've no idea who they will run out. It sounds like great fun to me; let's get to it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, February 5th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Liiv SBG (+550) vs. DWG (-1200)
DWG, the last bastion of international hope and DFS success for the LCK, faces Liiv SBG in a first versus last match. DWG has been considerably less dominant from a fantasy perspective this split, even though they remain the region's clear top team. Let's see how this one should shake out on Friday.
This one looks cut and dried to me; DWG owns all the stats here minus vision score and first drake, as you would expect from a first-place team facing a lost place one. The drake stats are such that dropping a bet on Liiv to get the first drake might be a good move if you have access to props. Outside of that, it's DWG early and late.
Liiv SBG are second in the league in pace and might push DWG into a few more fights if they secure some early drakes. Liiv average nearly 17 deaths per game, and DWG about the same number of kills in their wins. Sadly for Friday's slate, that makes this one of the better spots among the favorites. DWG should be highly owned, so you'll get some significant leverage. SBG is on the blue side, but other than that and possibly trying to rush a dragon soul, I don't see it. Very narrow win conditions are what we call that when we're polite.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID - leads the team in KP% and second in KS%.
- Canyon - JNG - second in KP% third in KS%.
- Ghost - ADC - KS% leader at 33%.
- Beryl - SUP - Ghost>> whoever SBG starts might be the most evident advantage for the side of DWG, and Beryl is along for the ride.
7:00 AM: Gen G (-475) vs. Nongshim RedForce (+295)
I know, I know, they're dead to me too, but we've got to move on. Imagine if you never rostered Anthony Davis again after the first time he went to the locker room, or Derrick Henry if you had him before deHENber. Nongshim seem to have solved some of their problems with tilt and therefore feeding. While their average death per loss is still over 19, we've seen their average since week three drop to only 14.5.
So stop me if you've heard this before, but Gen G should win this one going away. They have the edge in every major statistical category, early and late. The only question is do they swap again, either back or to another set of players. Honestly, I don't know, but you have to think of it again like football. At this point in their careers, Bdd and Faker may have become Alex Smith, and the young backups might be Patrick Mahomes. These top tier teams need to find out if that's the case because they plan for the playoffs and beyond. KT Rolster did yesterday seem like a desperate attempt to try something different not to lose a series to one of the lower-tier teams. Both suck for us as dfs consumers, but they are vastly different moves for these teams.
I think Gen G wins here quickly, but who can you trust is the question. Along with the recent slowing of pace from the side of Nongshim, I don't know how much Gen G I, or anyone else for that matter, will have on Friday.
Top GEN Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - likely safe, one would hope.
- Rascal - TOP - see above.
- Gen G - TEAM - Unswappable +1,000 points
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: LGD (Even) vs. TT (-135)
ThunderTalk gaming, as favorites? Well, if that don't beat all, but against the likes of LGD, I get it. LGD has only one game win on the season so far en route to an 0-5 series record. TT is quietly trying to put together a lower-middle-class lifestyle for themselves. Let's see who wins this mess, shall we?
TT did show some positive notes in the debacle with eStar on Wednesday. They seemed to understand their team comps well and learn from their mistakes in game one to close out game three. TT should have the edge early in this one, with their leads coming through the first turret, rift herald, and first three turrets. LGD has the advantage in first blood and first dragon while the GD@15 is nearly equal. TT has the upper hand, though, in total drakes and barons.
I like this TT roster a little bit, at least much more so than the side of LGD. Kramer hasn't had much of an impact since his return, which is not why LGD waited. He has disrupted the bit of synergy the mid jungle duo was picking up, but they should be past that by now. I don't like overreacting to bad wins versus worse teams, and that's what TT has just had, but LGD might be the worst team in the league right now. This one is close, and I could see playing either side, as TT averages nearly 18 deaths in their losses; if LGD does pull the upset here, they could score very well ala eStar. TT project at 16.5 kills, middle of the road to be sure, but on a slate without many big numbers on it, a bargain favorite with some sweep potential may be just what you need.
Top TT Plays:
- Twila - MID - second in both kill metrics.
- SamD - ADC - third in KP%, but first in KS%, albeit not by much.
- Teen - SUP - a pleasant surprise thus far, and first in KS%.
- Chelizi - TOP - 63% KP and 21% KS are serviceable for a top laner.
6:00 AM: EDG (-250) vs. SNG (+150)
It's storytime, kiddos, so buckle up. Who remembers DMO beating EDG last summer split? Anyone, right, because you should since I just talked about it a week ago when EDG ran TT off the rift. That upset sticks in my craw to this day, partially because a good friend of mine took down 30k that day stacking Xubin and partly because a week and a half before that, I took SNG to beat EDG, they lost. I often use this one as evidence that I'm cursed, and I estimate 90% of dfs players would say the same thing. When EDG beat SNG, they were -260, and when they lost to DMO, they were -750, and I'm still salty about it. I railed on for an eternity about SNG's ability to hang with EDG (this was pre worlds run) only to get dunked on. Now you're asking why this is important, because (insert goofy.gif) I'd do it again too!
SNG and EDG both like to go late, and they have the first and second longest average game time in the LPL. EDG showed versus V5 that they could be beaten, even though they came through with that win. EDG has the better early game stats with the edge in GD@15, rift herald, first turret, and first three turrets. SNG has a better first blood rate and a better first drake percentage, although EDG has the lead in both total drakes and barons. As usual with SNG, they own the better vision score and a better rate of first baron pick-ups than EDG.
That vision advantage comes from SofM, and here's why I think we see SNG pick up this win. SofM has an excellent record versus EDG since 2018 SofM's teams are 5-3 in series versus EDG with an 11-8 game score. Most of those were with inferior LNG and Snake esports teams, and I have some fond memories of SofM and Flandre going two vs. eight on those teams. I've said it before about these undefeated LPL teams that they will fall, and I'm looking to get off before they do.
These teams are very similarly constructed, and I'd say the only clear edge EDG has is Meiko over ON. EDG will open on the blue side, and that will give them the ability first to pick Kaisa or another top-tier adc for Viper. SNG has shored up some of their earlier draft issues and begun to put more emphasis on Huanfeng. It's a close match, and I'm obviously cursed, so if you aren't feeling the upset, EDG are the favs for a reason. I wouldn't say I like their upside compared to some of the other slate spots, as SNG is also a slower LPL team.
Top SNG plays
- Huanfeng- ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics by a wide margin.
- Bin - TOP - 67% KP and 24% KS out standing for top lane.
- Angel - MID - Glue guy... I swear SNG studied this EDG blueprint when they built the roster.
- Sofm - JNG - KP% stats still down, but starting to recover from a rough start to split.
Top EDG plays
- Viper - ADC - Leads the team in both kill metrics.
- Meiko - SUP - the edge for EDG, and he matches his adc in KP%.
- Scout - MID - glue guy, and translator extraordinary.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, Gen G 2-0, TT 2-1, and SNG 2-1. I threw the upset special in there for you. It's also the highest upside spot for kills on the slate if SNG do pull out the win. EDG, on the other hand, will be the lowest projected of any fav.
- LGD could put up some numbers if you can plug your nose and pull the trigger on that one. Gen G will be a free square if you guess the starters correctly as they will be much lower owned than usual as people will not have gotten that bad taste out of their mouths yet.
- The last four-game of the week is upon us, and then it's on to bigger and better things. Five game slates for the weekend, and they lock early as the first LPL games start at midnight eastern. That will further hurt the LCK games on those slates as we won't get even the first set of rosters confirmed pre lock. Yikes. I'm still excited, though.
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