Losers from the 2022-23 NBA Free Agency - Big Men (Part 2): Mitchell Robinson, Deandre Ayton, Isaiah Stewart

July 12, 2022

NBA players at PF/C who changed teams this offseason and should have worse 2022-23 seasons (Part 2). These players could be fantasy basketball draft busts.

Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential, but it can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.

This article is about the latter, and while it's only been hours since the market officially opened, we're here to analyze some of the deals that have been confirmed in advance of the 2021-22 season tipoff later this fall.

Let's take a look at some players who recently changed teams and who should find their stock cratering in advance of the 2022-23 campaign.

Fantasy Basketball: Losers from 2022-23 Free Agency - Big Men

Dwight Powell, C - Dallas Mavericks

The most talked-about thing related to the Dallas Mavericks offseason has been, of course, the loss of point guard Jalen Brunson to the New York Knicks. There is no doubt Brunson was a big-impact player and that only got even clearer come postseason time with Luka missing games throughout the playoffs. Powell, who started 71 of 82 games for the Mavs, seems to be on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to players in Dallas getting a heavy blow in terms of their upside entering next season. That's because the Brunson loss absolutely overshadowed the additions of both Christian Wood and JaVale McGee to bolster Dallas' frontcourt with Powell as the clear loser of those two transactions (one via trade, the other one via free agency). There is no point in discussing who will man the center position for the Mavs next season: Wood, and that's not even debatable.

There might be some doubts if Dallas tries to run a downsized lineup in which Wood starts at PF instead of C, but even then it's not clear if Powell (22 MPG last year) would start over McGee (16 MPG) and even if he does, how much time he'll be on the court with other players such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber still in the Mavs rotation. Even on low playing time, Powell couldn't reach the league average of 0.90 FP/min last year posting a mediocre 0.84 figure himself. Other than the 67.1 FG% and 78.3 FT% (albeit on just 4.9 FGA and 2.6 FTA per game), Powell didn't excel at anything falling short of averaging nine points and five boards per game. The Mavs won't ask much more from him with all of the other pieces they have in the roster now, so even a top-50 finish among C and a top-250 overall campaign are looking like a stretch for Powell as things stand.

Jalen Duren, PF/C - Detroit Pistons
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C - Detroit Pistons
Kelly Olynyk, C - Detroit Pistons
Nerlens Noel, C - Detroit Pistons

The situation in Detroit when it comes to big men is very similar to that in also-rebuilding Orlando, if only to a certain extent. While the Magic spent the no. 1 overall pick on a big man (Paolo Banchero), Detroit traded for the rights of drafting big boy Jalen Duren with their second lottery pick adding the youngster to the cadre of Stewie, Olynyk, and most-recent-acquisition Noel. In other words, if you're a Pistons fan you can start forgetting about your franchise chasing free agent Deandre Ayton because, well, the paint is already packed full of bodies.

That doesn't mean Detroit would not flip all of those four guys for Ayton alone though, as the four guys listed above might not combine for what Ayton is capable of doing all by himself. Anyway, back to reality. As ESPN sees it, the current depth chart and rotation would have Marvin Bagley III at the starting PF position with all other four big men fighting for minutes at the center slot – Stewart projects as the starter, by the way. The truth is that rookie Duren might still be a bit green for starting minutes. Stewart is the youngest of the other three players and definitely the kid Detroit should favor going forward as the Pistons center-of-the-future. In fact, Stewie started all 71 games he played last season playing 25+ MPG. That shouldn't change.

Olynyk played 40 games, all but one coming off the pine, and finished the year with the highest FP/min figure among Pistons big men at 1.11 compared to Stewart's 0.91 (barely average) and recently-acquired Noel's 0.72 (beyond mediocre). Stewart is the best scorer/rebounder of the trio (8.3 PPG + 8.7 RPG), Olynyk is the one capable of stretching the floor (33.6% on 3.0 3PA per game), and Noel has great defensive upside when available (5.5+ RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG in just 22 MPG). Throw some minutes of Duren into the equation though, and a hard-to-solve rotation gets even tougher and crowded when it comes to distributing minutes to its different pieces. Typical "too many players, just one ball (and 48 minutes)" problem right here.

Mitchell Robinson, C - New York Knicks

You might be wondering why I am including Mitch Rob here but not freshest-NYK-signee Isaiah Hartenstein. Well, the answer to that question is that while IH is coming off his first full season with a single team (LAC) in which he played 68 games and started none of them, Robinson played 102 matches in the past two years for the Knicks starting 91 of them. Of course, none of those two will change their roles (Rob will start, Hartenstein will keep getting minutes off the pine) next season, but Robinson stands as the one to lose the most from the addition of another legit, proven and promising biggie to the Knicks roster.

This hit on Robinson's upside gets even more exacerbated by the fact that Hartenstain brings a completely different skill set to the table. That means that in certain games, matchups, and situations there will be a slightly larger chance of Robinson hitting the pine in exchange for what Hartenstain has to offer – basically some floor-stretching as he can hit it from beyond the arc and also a nice playmaking. No one is saying that Hartenstein is going to become Nikola Jokic, but he's better on those two fronts and free-throw shooting than Robinson is. That's facts, full stop.

Hartenstein completed an 8-5-2-1-1 season with the Clips last year on just 18 MPG compared to Robinson's slightly higher 8-8-0-1-2 line in nearly eight more minutes playing almost 26 MPG. Of course, Hartenstein was much more efficient on a per-minute basis posting a 1.18 FP/min figure to Rob's 0.97. New York paid two times more for keeping Robinson than adding Hartenstein but they're basically the same age and both come with some clearly defined pros and cons. Robinson, as the starter facing incoming competition, is the one getting the "loser" tag here while Hartenstain retains his value as his situation is not changing that much from the one he played into last season.

Deandre Ayton, C - Phoenix Suns (RFA)

The curious case of the real-life, fantasy-realm loser, ain't it? We have yet to see what happens with Deandre Ayton, but it's not looking good for him and his future unless a certain team from Brooklyn ends up getting him as part of a monster trade involving Kevin Durant. See, Ayton reportedly wants nothing to do with Phoenix, and the same goes the other way around as the Suns would like to part ways with the former no. 1 pick instead of inking him to a max-money deal. No franchise with available cap room seems to be interested in paying top money for the center, and even then, the Suns would only match whatever offer sheet Ayton gets only to trade him down the road, most probably before the trade deadline.

Of course, staying put in Phoenix and with a great relationship going on between both sides would at least be palatable for fantasy GMs, but sadly that doesn't look like it's the current state of affairs between both parties. Ayton is coming off a top-13 C season and top-58 overall campaign in 2022. He started all games (58) he appeared in, averaged 29+ MPG and 34.1 FPPG, and also posted a rather-high efficiency mark of 1.15 FP/min last year. Ayton's health is not historically great (he's played 71, 38, 69, and 58 games as a pro) but he's always performed to the expectations if not higher. He's always finished with 32+ FPPG averages and 1.06+ FP/min marks.

Ayton's worst finish among centers (barring the 2020 season) has always seen him get into the top-16 or better. He's also finished two years as a top-50 fantasy player overall. The problem is that he will be leaving the runner-up of the 2021 postseason and two legit guards playmakers in Devin Booker and Chris Paul before the next season tips off. And that, whether you like it or not, is a heavy blow on Ayton's stock.

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