LIV Golf Bedminster Betting Picks - Matt Miller's Strategies and Best Bets

Welcome RotoBallers to my LIV golf betting picks series. The LIV Golf Series will host its third event this upcoming weekend at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Bedminster, New Jersey. I will be in attendance all weekend with some player updates and reports from the course.

Trump Bedminster was originally selected as the host of the 2022 PGA Championship but was stripped of the opportunity before Southern Hills was chosen as the new location.

Trump National Golf Club Bedminster has been featured multiple times on Golf Digest's top 100 courses in the United States list and was the host of the 2017 US Women's Open. The course this week will play as a 7591-yard par 71.

LIV Golf Bedminster Event and Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

All three par-fives appear to be reachable for a majority of the field. Hole 18 is protected by water on the right side, which could result in players choosing to lay up. Two of the four par-threes play over 200 yards, including the monstrous 251-yard 14th. Six of the par-fours play 450 yards or longer, and the remaining five measure between 413-438 yards.

Without having any tournament history or historical strokes gained data to go off at Bedminster, it makes forecasting how the event will play much more difficult. We know it's long, and players must take advantage of the par-fives this week if they hope to win, and I expect the course to show its teeth this week and fully challenge the players.

Former President Donald Trump was very vocal about his displeasure in losing the PGA Championship, and I don't foresee him allowing this event to play easy and turn into a birdie fest. If anything, he'll have the course playing on the tougher side to show it was fit to host a major championship.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Bedminster

Below are the odds for the event as listed by DraftKings. 

LIV Golf Betting Strategy and Selections - Bedminster

Both LIV events so far have had reasonably unpredictable winners, with Charl Schwartzel winning in London and Branden Grace in Portland. This week I will try my best to come up with players who I think both fit the course and have some extra motivation to win.

With a smaller 48-man field, I am going to build my card around four guys. My plan is to choose one near the top of the betting board, one in the mid-tier, and then two deeper shots.

Patrick Reed +1800

From a course fit standpoint, Reed seems to check a lot of the boxes. Despite not being a long hitter, he does play exceptionally well on extended courses, which has to do with longer venues tending to have a lower GIR percentage.

Reed's elite ability to scramble when on top of his game has always been pronounced, and although he looked shaky to start 2022, the game seems to be rounding back into form.

The American put up a pedestrian performance at the Open Championship but did make the cut, making him one of only 12 players this year to see the weekend at all four majors. I would say that is not bad for an off year.

His short game has looked good as of late, gaining over a stroke putting at the Open Championship and earning shots to the field around the green in five of his last six starts, and his top-three finish in the previous LIV event in Portland was heightened by the fireworks he brought on the final hole with his chip-in.

While you can't trust everything players say during press conferences, I do believe Reed actually loves to compete and win.

He spoke about being more motivated to find the winner's circle each time he plays now since his new schedule will involve fewer events, and while I don't know if I fully buy into him being more motivated, it certainly doesn't seem like he's any less drive after receiving his payday.

Sam Horsfield +4000

Sam Horsfield is one of the few LIV Golf members who took a big chance by joining the league. The 25-year-old Englishman does not fit the standard LIV prototype, as he has won three times on the European Tour since 2020 and has his best golf still in front of him.

Still, though, he took the leap of faith and has finished inside the top-15 at both events, including a fifth-place result at the inaugural contest in London.

My big reason for taking a shot on Horsfield is his talent combined with his hunger for a big win. If you look at the odds list above, every single player priced above Horsfield has made a ton of money playing golf, and while his few wins overseas were nice, Horsfield is still looking for that huge payout.

I genuinely believe the Englishman is the most talented player in the field that still has the motivation to get paid.

Horsfield has an above-average distance off the tee, which should help him on the longer course this week, and his good iron play and baseline putting should add extra help to his strong tee-to-green numbers. We just need him to have a good week on the greens, and this 40/1 will be very intriguing.

Martin Kaymer +8000

I feel gross even typing this one, but hear me out. Like Charl Schwartzel and Branden Grace, Martin Kaymer fits the profile of our last two LIV tournament winners, as he was once an extremely talented player whose best days are now behind him. At 37- years-old, he is the same age as Schwartzel and only a few years older than Grace.

Kaymer has finished inside the top-16 in his two LIV golf starts, gaining strokes against the field in both, and he also finished 37th at the BMW International Championship at the end of June.

While none of those results would be anything to write home about, they aren’t terrible either. The irons have been pretty solid as of late, and if veteran magic is going to continue to be a thing at these events, I’m willing to take a shot on him at 80-1.

Scott Vincent +8000

If you listen to Draws N Fades Pod, you will know that we have talked up Scott Vincent as the most underrated player in the LIV Golf Series. Vincent played eight events on the Asian tour this year, winning two and finishing top-10 in another.

I know the competition is pretty weak, but the kid has some game (and a great head of hair).

While he’s not a bomber, his driving distance is above average, and he is undoubtedly long enough to get around the course this week. Vincent usually is a pretty strong putter, which he will need to have going for him this week if he wants to have any chance to win.

And even if the irons have let him down lately, I’m willing to take a chance that he turns them around and makes a run at this thing at odds of 80-1.

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