Lineup Takeaways - Week 5 Lineup Trends

May 2, 2021

Mike Kurland takes a deep look at Week 5's fantasy baseball risers and fallers based on recent lineup trends, highlighting strong and weak platoons, and players who may benefit from lineup slot.

Week five of the MLB season is in the books. There are new injuries, players landing on the COVID injured list, and many more developments that are causing lineups to alter. Let’s try to figure out what is noise and what really matters.

Just a reminder, I have added a 'Fantasy Fallout' section to the team breakdowns. This is meant to highlight lesser rostered players who may have fantasy relevance. As we get more tangible info and stats, the notes will evolve with it.

All roster percentages are based on Yahoo! formats.

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National League

NL East

Atlanta Braves

• Ozzie Albies and Travis d'Arnaud appear to have flipped lineup spots with Albies being the cleanup hitter over the last seven games and d'Arnaud batting fifth. 

Miami Marlins

• Jazz Chisholm (hamstring) joins Brian Anderson (oblique) and Starling Marte (rib) on the IL and with the injuries piling up, Jon Berti has been and should continue to fill in and play most days. Berti typically hits sixth or seventh.
• Miguel Rojas has led off for two-straight games against both a RHP and LHP. It appears he will get some run at leading off.
• With Starling Marte out, we have seen Adam Duvall handle center field duties a bit and this has opened up playing time for Garrett Cooper. Cooper has started the last six games in right field while batting fourth in five of those games. He appears locked into the middle of the order. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Jon Berti is still someone to target if you need speed. Although he has yet to steal a base, at least he has hit two home runs over the last week. I do feel it is a matter of when, not if, he will run. He is 15% rostered.
• Cooper and Duvall have not done much of late. Both have relevance if you are just in need of at-bats in deeper mixed leagues and have value in NL-only leagues, but I would avoid both in anything shallower than a 15-team league.

New York Mets

• Just a few moving parts but nothing much to take away right now. Something to watch is that Dominic Smith moved down to the bottom third of the lineup the last two games. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Dominic Smith is having some issues at the plate. He has seen an increase in strikeout rate to start the year while watching his walk rate drop. This is because he is swinging more this year while making less contact. That is not a mix you want to see in a profile. He should correct things but it is a reason for concern and likely part of the reason behind his struggles.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Brad Miller has started four of the last five while playing multiple positions and batting top four in the process. He only starts against RHP. 
• Nick Maton has started at either shortstop or second base in each of the last 11 games and hits in the bottom half of the lineup. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Nick Maton could be on borrowed time while he is up, but he could be relevant in 15-team leagues or deeper. Just 3% rostered and hitting .333, the counting stats should come around.
• Brad Miller might be in a platoon, but the power and RBI numbers have come around. In the last two weeks, he has hit two home runs with five RBI and has a .357 batting average. This was while missing a few games with a minor injury. He is a fringe 12-team relevant player, but has value in anything deeper.

Washington Nationals

• Josh Harrison remains atop the lineup.
• Starlin Castro has moved up to bat cleanup the last two games. Otherwise not much to take away at the moment. The team continues to shift pieces around and we await Juan Soto’s (shoulder) return

Fantasy Fallout

• Josh Harrison has quietly been solid in 2021. He has hit .333 with two home runs and eight RBI while playing daily and hitting atop the Nationals lineup. There are uses for that given the league size. Harrison is just 6% rostered.
• Starlin Castro has been, well, Starlin Castro. Boring, middling-floor type of player with a low ceiling. The playing time is there and he will compile stats as the season goes on. He should not be rostered in shallow leagues.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

• The team continues to change things up as Ian Happ struggles. Happ has sat three-straight games after being moved down the order in two straight prior. He did lead off upon his return, but a move down the lineup can happen if he does not pick it up. 
• Nico Hoerner has played consistently and has played shortstop, outfield and second base. He could fall into a few positions in terms of eligibility by season's end.  
• We have seen three different players lead off over the last five games. Again, a few moving parts as they settle into things.

Fantasy Fallout

• Ian Happ has become droppable in shallower formats. With his strikeout rate spiking up to 33.3%, outside of OBP formats, it could be hard to stomach his production. Better days are ahead, but how far ahead is the question. I would be sitting him until he gets going in deeper leagues.
• Nico Hoerner (just 17% rostered) is playing all over the field and could hit his way up the lineup. The good plate discipline continues to be his strength as he currently boasts a 17.1% walk rate and a 17.1% strikeout rate. Yes, they are the exact same and both elite levels in each respective category. He has managed to steal a base so the batting average does come with some speed potential as well. He is someone I would target off the wire if you are in need of either of those categories or a middle infielder in general.

Cincinnati Reds

• Jesse Winker (back) was removed from Friday’s game due to back tightness, so this could lead to a few games and short-term, consistent playing time for Tyler Naquin. 
• Nick Senzel did play second base the last game, and if Jonathan India’s currently undisclosed injury lingers or he gets sent down, this could hold and Senzel might gain eligibility at the keystone. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Tyler Naquin does win out in the short term with Winker's injury. Shogo Akiyama (hamstring) could throw a wrench in things as he is set to return shortly. I would not go out spending big money on Naquin in FAAB this week or prioritize him off the waiver wire in general.
• Nick Senzel has turned it on over the last week. He has one home run and one stolen base while hitting .368/.409/.579 and walking more than he is striking out. If he gains second base eligibility, then he will be that much more valuable to fantasy teams.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Dan Vogelbach has started over Keston Hiura in three straight games at first base and has batted second in each game.
• Typically hitting at the bottom of the order, Tyrone Taylor and Billy McKinney find themselves playing regularly in the outfield. Although Taylor has hit in the top of the order relatively recently.

Fantasy Fallout

• It is getting hard to justify Hiura not being a drop. In shallower formats I could see dropping him, but the ceiling is still there and I would be afraid someone else will add him and get the fantasy production you drafted him for. However, objectively speaking, Hiura has been BAD. With a sub .200 batting average (.167) while producing a BABIP of .262 (which is in-line with 2020's numbers). Add in the 35.4% strikeout rate, and this is just as bad as it can get for him. A trip to the minors might happen, and at that point, there is justification for dropping him in most spots.
• Dan Vogelbach becomes relevant in deep mixed leagues and NL-only again as he is hitting second consistently and the power upside is great with his skillset and home ballpark. Be mindful that he might drag down your batting average.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Nothing of note

St. Louis Cardinals

• Dylan Carlson has hit his way to a secured two-spot in the lineup. He has hit there eight-straight games. 
• Since returning, Tyler O'Neill has slotted into the five-through-seven spots in the lineup. 
• With Harrison Bader being activated, Justin Williams gets squeezed from the lineup. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Harrison Bader returns to relevance in NL-only formats. It would be hard to justify rostering him in mixed leagues at the moment unless you simply need a warm body to put into your lineup.
• Tyler O'Neill has been arguably the team's hottest hitter since returning off the IL. However, I would ride it out or sell high if someone in your league is buying into this production. Over the last two weeks, O'Neill has posted four home runs and two stolen bases while hitting .346. This comes with a 25.9% strikeout rate over the last two weeks compared to an overall 37.5% strikeout rate on the year. The swing and miss continues to be an issue, but if he can sustain the improved strikeout rate, there could be some sustainability to this production. The batting average likely will not remain, but the power and speed are very real. As long as he is making contact the rest will come. This is something to monitor.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Pavin Smith has led off nine of the last ten games. He has played both first base and center field in the process. 
• Josh VanMeter has started two-straight at second base while batting second in both starts. 
• Josh Rojas has started six-of-eight while playing right field since Kole Calhoun (hamstring) went on the IL. He sits towards the bottom of the lineup. 
• Daulton Varsho was called up but has yet to start in the three games since said call up.

Fantasy Fallout

• This pretty much sums up how to treat Varsho this week in FAAB and in general really.

• Pavin Smith has been decent with his playing time of late. He is not a league winner, but over his last 10 games, he has hit .289/.333/.511 with a 127 wRC+ and .360 wOBA. That will help keep him leading off and playing in the short term at the very least.
• In those six starts Rojas has had of late, he has two home runs while batting .316/.316/.737 and a wOBA of .444 and a 181 wRC+. The bad news is this comes with no walks at all and a 36.3% strikeout rate. The hit tool has always been good and he might finally be coming around. This could be the player we drafted him to be early on and is worth taking a shot on in deeper formats as long as the playing time is here. He is just 10% rostered.

Colorado Rockies

• Garrett Hampson has led off in two of the last three, but they were both against LHPs. 
• Raimel Tapia has sat against the last two LHPs. He could be entering a platoon. Both games he sat in favor of Jonathan Daza. 
• Josh Fuentes appears to have fallen into a short-side platoon role. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

• There is a revolving door in the outfield as Cody Bellinger (leg) remains out and other outfielders get routine days off. 

San Diego Padres

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has led off in seven straight and Trent Grisham has been locked into the two-spot over the same span.
• Ha-Seong Kim has started just one game in the last seven and just 10 of the 27 overall on the year. 

San Francisco Giants

• With the addition of Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater has now hit the bench and is likely going to be relegated to a weak-side platoon role. 
• Mike Tauchman appears at least to have the strong side of a platoon, but we have yet to see a lineup against a LHP since he was acquired.
  
• Brandon Belt has been playing everyday. Even against LHP when there was concern and even a level of expectation that Belt would sit against LHP. However, that has not been the case as he has started against the last two. It is still a situation to monitor but it’s encouraging nevertheless. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Brandon Belt has played well enough against LHP (at least so far) to earn playing time against them and thus making him an everyday player for the Giants. That is not something we are seeing a lot of in that lineup.

American League

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

• Austin Hays has hit second the last three games. 
• Ryan Mountcastle has fallen to the bottom half of the lineup. 
• DJ Stewart is still playing regularly. He moves around the order a bit as he hits bottom half some days and towards the middle others.

Fantasy Fallout

I do believe this will play itself out and when Santander returns. One of these three will simply have played themselves out of the lineup by then.

Boston Red Sox

• J.D. Martinez has played six games in the outfield this year. He will gain outfield eligibility soon if he has not already in your league. 
• Franchy Cordero has not played much of late. He was already in a platoon and now just started once in the last five games. There were RHPs mixed in there, but he did not play. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Franchy Cordero is droppable in any mixed league that is 15-teams or shallower. With a 47.3% strikeout rate, batting sub .200 with a 28 wRC+ to go along with losing at-bats, it is hard to find any reason to roster him at the moment.

New York Yankees

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit second in eight straight games now. It appears to be his new lineup spot. 
• Gio Urshela has moved up to the cleanup spot as he has hit there in his last four starts. 
• Kyle Higashioka has played three of the last four games at catcher with Gary Sanchez only drawing one start. The playing time for Sanchez has become worrisome.
• Aaron Hicks has dropped to the six-spot on average. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Gary Sanchez is actually striking out way less this year at just 21.4% of the time. This is a career-best mark at the moment, but it is not all bad luck. He is pulling the ball a ton and hitting more ground balls as well. That is not the combination you like to see. There should be better days ahead for Sanchez, but until then, he could be second in-line for playing time. He is being outplayed by Higashioka at the moment.

Tampa Bay Rays

• A bunch of moving parts that are dictated by matchup. A lot of platoon situations going on.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have alternated starts over the last week.
• With George Springer back in the lineup, he is back to leading off.
• Cavan Biggio and Marcus Semien are hitting fifth and sixth respectively with Springer’s return. They each could slot one spot lower in a fully healthy lineup.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. continues to hit at the bottom of the lineup.
• Upon his return, Teoscar Hernandez slotted right back into the heart of the lineup and hit cleanup. 

Fantasy Fallout

• I would say it should happen sooner than later, but Kirk should get the larger share of playing time.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

• Nothing new to note.

Cleveland

• They have been playing Josh Naylor at first base of late. He now has played three games there this year and could be in line for gaining eligibility in the near future.
• Jordan Luplow has been playing everyday between center field and right field and batting top two in the order.
• Amed Rosario moves around the lineup, but gets in there just about everyday. 
• Andres Gimenez is locked into a bottom of the order lineup spot. 

Detroit Tigers

• Harold Castro has been getting more run at the top of the order as he has hit second in three of the last five games while playing multiple positions. He sits against LHPs. 
• Willi Castro initially was hitting toward the top of the lineup, but over the last 10 or so days, he has fallen to the fifth or sixth spot in the order most days. 
• Niko Goodrum finds his way into and all over the lineup just about everyday. He is another player they use in a super-utility role. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Of these three, it is Goodrum who is showing to be the only one with fantasy relevance of late. Over the last two weeks, he is hitting an abysmal .154, but he has three home runs and three stolen bases. If you are desperate for some speed in 15-team or deeper mixed leagues, Goodrum is just 4% rostered and could provide it.

Kansas City Royals

• Jorge Soler has transitioned to playing right field most days and should have outfield eligibility in all formats or will be there very shortly. 
• Kyle Isbel was optioned to the alternate site. This opened up the right field playing time for Soler and further allowed Ryan O’Hearn to get into the lineup as the DH and occasionally at first base. He slots into the middle of the order (typically around fifth) but he sits against LHP. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Given the fact he does not play against LHP, O'Hearn should be left on the wire in mixed leagues but does have some relevance in AL-only formats.

Minnesota Twins

• Alex Kirilloff has stuck to the middle of the order and has played first base twice as of now and should gain said eligibility sooner than later. 
• Max Kepler is back in the lineup and in his first game back he batted seventh. That is something to monitor. The only time he has hit this low prior to that start was against LHP. However, this was a start against a RHP where he usually slots in the middle of the order. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Alex Kirilloff has turned it on of late. Sitting at 32% rostered, that should jump up tremendously. He has a hit in each of his last five games with three being home runs. He is sitting in the middle of the order and could gain first base eligibility soon as well. Make sure he is rostered in your league.

AL West

Houston Astros

• The lineup is healthy and as expected. 

Los Angeles Angels

• This is another lineup that is consistent.

Oakland Athletics 

• With Matt Olson out, we see some minor changes towards the top of the order. However, until he returns, it is too early to say if any of this is actionable. 
• There still appears to be a bit of a time-share going on in right field between Seth Brown and Stephen Piscotty. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Not that either Piscotty or Brown hold a ton of value, both do hold some in deeper formats and right now Brown is playing better baseball. If they move towards giving just one of them the playing time, Brown appears to be the front runner in terms of production.

Seattle Mariners

• More of the same with the Mariners. Kyle Lewis since being activated off the IL has hit fourth exclusively. 
• Ty France made two-straight starts at first base. This is something to watch if this can continue. 

Fantasy Fallout

• All eyes on France possibly grabbing first base eligibility.

Texas Rangers

• Willie Calhoun has been leading off against RHP and Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been leading off against LHP. Both hit seventh on days they aren’t leading off. This favors Calhoun while hurting IKF a little bit.
• Nick Solak has hit second regardless each of the last four games. 
• Adolis Garcia and Nate Lowe flip-flop positions depending on handedness of the pitcher. 
• David Dahl has fallen to the bottom half of the lineup over the last nine days. This is likely caused by Calhoun returning and Solak moving up.
• Brock Holt and Charlie Culberson are in a platoon at third base with Holt on the strong-side.

Fantasy Fallout

• Since returning from the IL, Calhoun has been the hitter we knew he could be. He is slashing .293/.356/.366 with a .324 wOBA and 113 wRC+. His strikeout and walk numbers are also in line with his career-norms. Calhoun is a solid, safe, high-floor fantasy producer and now that he his healthy and performing, he is a solid roster stabilizer you can set and forget.
• David Dahl falling in the lineup is not much of a shock given his recent troubles at the plate. Hitting just .167 with just one home run at the plate over the last two weeks will do that. Not to mention others around him performing well. There is not any room for error if Dahl wants to remain or return to the top of the lineup.

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