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Dan Palyo's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LEC/LCS DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 4/3/20 and 4/4/20. He discusses the LEC and LCS playoff LoL slates and his top targets.
Welcome to RotoBaller's coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Hopefully, you've been following our coverage of the LPL/LCK overnight slates on DraftKings. Today, I will be focusing on the LEC and LCS playoffs slates that are available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
This is a tad tricky as the sites have split the games differently. FanDuel is offering the G2-MAD match only on a single-game slate and then paired the Saturday matches between Fnatic and Origen (LEC) with the match between Flyquest and Evil Geniuses (LCS) for a two-game Saturday slate. Meanwhile, DraftKings has paired both of the LEC games together for a Friday-Saturday two-game slate. I am going to break down all three matches and try my best to explain how I will approach each of the slates individually. One important thing to note is that these matches are now "bo5" (best of five) series which changes things quite a bit from the usual single-game format of regular-season matches.
Today we'll be bringing on our top League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for the LEC playoff slates on Friday at 12:00 PM on DraftKings and the LEC/LCS combo slate on FanDuel on Saturday at 11:00 AM. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LoL mentor and our RotoBaller lead ESports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!
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League of Legends DFS Basics
I am stealing most of these tips from our lead analyst, Jason Malmanger. Since LEC contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.
- . Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
- Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.
NOTE: An important detail to note in regards to scoring is that both teams and players can get a double bonus for sweeping their opponent 3-0 in the best of five format. Each player receives 20 extra points in a 3-1 series victory, while teams get 15 additional points. That becomes 40 points per player in a sweep and 30 points per team. Both DraftKings and FanDuel both have the same scoring rules for this bonus.
Friday 12:00 PM: MAD vs G2 (-1800)
G2 was the regular-season league champs and are the top-seeded team in the playoffs. Their 15-3 regular-season record this split was a full two games better than the second and third place finishers Fnatic and Origen.
They are easily the biggest favorite of the entire weekend and based on how they've crushed the competition this season, they seem like the safest bet to win and pile up fantasy points. One of their losses this season was to this MAD squad, however the best of five format really decreases the chances of an upset here.
On Draftkings...
It's really easy to get a 4-man stack of G2 with the way they priced this slate and I would make that a priority. Being creative with how you stack them will be important for tournaments, but the core of Jankos, Caps, and Mikyx are my favorite three to build around with Wunder, Perkz, and the TEAM slot all carrying appeal, too. The big three from G2 all have excellent kill participation rates and the Caps-Mikyx correlation is a must-play duo for me in all formats. The rationale for using any MAD players would simply be for game theory purposes as they will be the lowest-owned players on the slate. There is a possibility that they could return value if they pushed G2 to a final fifth game, but the likelihood of that happening and of them outscoring the winning players from Saturday's game is slim.
On FanDuel...
The most common roster construction for FanDuel's single-game contests should be a 4-man G2 stack with a one-off from MAD. You have to use at least one MAD player in your builds per the rules, but that's probably all the more I'd be willing to use as I expect G2 to handle them 3-0 or 3-1 in this series.
Rankings:
- Caps
- Jankos
- Mikyx
- Perkz
- Wunder
- G2 TEAM
- Kaiser (lowest death rate on MAD)
- Carrzy
- MAD TEAM (allows you to cram four G2 starters in)
Saturday 11:00 AM: Fnatic (-180) vs Origen
This game should be an epic battle between two excellent teams that both racked up 13 wins this season. They split their head-to-head matches this season with OG dominating the first game 15-2 and then FNC handling OG 20-10 in their second meeting. OG defeated FNC in the semi-finals of the 2019 Spring season three games to one and I would expect this series to go at least four games with the potential to go all five.
These two teams play very contrasting styles with OG being notorious for their slow and methodical gameplay, while Fnatic plays a faster tempo game and are quicker to fight. I think Origen is the better all-around team and wins in five games, but I will be hedging this game with shares of both squads.
On Draftkings...
The FNC guys are all priced just a little higher than OG players due to them being a slight favorite, but both teams are absolutely in play as secondary stacks to pair with G2. Fnatic's best player is their ADC Rekkles (11400), but it's nearly impossible to fit him in with a full G2 stack, so I will likely be targeting their TOP Bwipo and MID Nemesis as well as their TEAM slot. For Origen, I really like the discount on Upset (compared to Rekkles) at ADC and their SUP, Destiny, is one of my favorite plays from their squad as he leads their team in kill participation rate.
On FanDuel...
We don't have to worry about G2 on Saturday's FanDuel mixed LEC-LCS slate, but getting this game right will be imperative. I favor the OG guys based on their lower prices here, too, and because I think they can pull out a series victory. Getting two ADCs into your build could be tough, but I would prioritize Rekkles or Upset here over the ADCs from the LCS game.
Saturday, 2:00 PM: Evil Genuises (-190) vs Flyquest
This game is only available on FanDuel as of right now and is the only LCS matchup being played on Saturday. We will see C9 take on 100 Thieves on Sunday in the #1 vs. #4 seed matchup. EG finished as the #2 seed and beat Flyquest in both head-to-head matches this season with scores of 18-3 and 16-6.
I know that anything can happen in sports but in a five-game series, I expect the talent of EG to win out and I think they have the best chance of any of the teams playing on Saturday (remember, G2 is playing Friday) to get a sweep and those extra bonus points. These teams both rank in the top half of the LCS in combined kills per minute, so these games could be bloody - and bloody means more fantasy points for our lineups.
My top targets for EG are Bang (ADC - 10100), Jizuke (MID - 9400), and Zeyzal (SUP - 7900). Svenskeren (JNG - 8400) is a solid option at Jungler, too, but he has a tendency to die a lot (team-high 31% death rate). If you are looking to go with the underdog FQ here, then consider a Santorin (JNG - 8200), PowerOfEvil (ADC - 8300), IgNar (SUP - 7000) stack. If they are able to pull off the upset, they'll win you a tournament and give you the salary cap you need to fit in the top plays from the FNC-OG game.
Summary
- Give me ALL the G2 on any slate they're playing on.
- I lean Origen over Fnatic in their series, but it's worth hedging.
- I like EG to beat up on Flyquest and they are my favorite team on the FanDuel Saturday slate.
Check back throughout the weekend as we'll publish more ESports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
