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Andersen Pickard evaluates five deeper 2023 fantasy football draft sleepers that could be breakout performers. These are his later-round lotto tickets to pursue in upcoming drafts.
Landing "your guy" with a first-round pick in fantasy football is an exhilarating feeling. From the pre-pick anticipation to finally pulling the trigger on one of your favorite studs, this can be a dream come true.
But perhaps even more exciting is finding a diamond in the rough in the form of a late-round sleeper. You did your homework, drafted the player at an appropriate price, and cashed in with a handsome return on investment. These are the picks that can turn a middling roster into a full-fledged, championship-bound squad.
Here are five late-round players who have the potential to be tremendous value picks and potential league-winners heading into the 2023 fantasy football season.
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Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Everyone loves Chig! The Titans' second-year tight end entered the offseason as a glaring candidate to break out in 2023, but his ADP took a hit when Tennessee signed De'Andre Hopkins. While it's good practice to evaluate every player's status whenever an addition or subtraction is made, there's no reason to panic about Chigoziem Okonkwo's future despite Hopkins inking his deal.
Last season, Okonkwo had 0.7 fantasy points per route run (first among tight ends), 3.26 yards per route run (first), and 14.1 yards per reception (first). Considering his 7.9 aDOT ranked 11th (which isn't awful, but it also isn't first), we can clearly see that the tight end possesses a rare ability to rack up YAC and extend plays. He doesn't need to catch passes deep downfield or in the end zone to have fantasy value. He just needs to get the ball thrown his way, and then he'll take care of the rest.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
As excited as I am about Okonkwo, I'm infinitely more pumped about drafting Juwan Johnson. Thank goodness I have a little restraint and self-control or else I'd probably make him a top-five tight end in my rankings. Yes, you read that correctly. It's Juwan Johnson to the moon, baby, and here's why.
Johnson had a career year in 2022, catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns while undeniably emerging as the Saints' best tight end. He did well stretching the field, posting an aDOT of 9.4 (sixth among tight ends) and 296 unrealized air yards (ninth). His efficiency and fantasy value were equally apparent. Johnson finished the year with a 22.1% dominator rating, +37.1 EPA, 111.6 QBR per target, and 2.07 fantasy points per target.
Don't forget that from Weeks 7 to 17 last season, Johnson had the third-most fantasy points per game among qualified tight ends and that was with Andy Dalton under center. Fantasy managers should be incredibly excited about how his production will grow with Derek Carr, who elevated Darren Waller to Pro Bowl level, now under center.
Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills
Damien Harris found his way to Buffalo and could be on the precipice of breaking out as a top-18 running back in fantasy football. The Bills' 2023 backfield looks a lot like the Lions' 2022 backfield. In this comparison, Harris is Jamaal Williams, who scored 18 touchdowns and was the RB13 in PPR leagues.
But enough comps. Let's get to the data. People tend to forget that Harris was on pace for 225 touches, 1,046 rushing yards, and 13 touchdowns through his first four games last season. But a subsequent injury dropped him behind Rhamondre Stevenson on the depth chart. Now, Harris is primed to bounce back in a huge way with the Bills, who signed him to handle the bulk of their rushing duties while leaving James Cook in a pass-catching role.
Perhaps what's most exciting about this development is that the Bills want Josh Allen to run less, especially around the goal line. This translates to immediate goal-line production for Harris, who is just two years removed from a 15-touchdown campaign in 2021. Don't shy away from drafting Harris; he's currently priced way too low and you can capitalize on that.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Volume, volume, volume. That's the name of the game in fantasy football. At the wide receiver position, getting a steady stream of targets can be more valuable than playing in a strong offense. That just might be the case for Nico Collins, who has emerged as the Texans' No. 1 wide receiver ahead of his third pro season.
Collins didn't have the greatest metrics last season, totaling a mediocre 0.36 fantasy points per route run and 11.4 expected fantasy points per game. However, he also played second-fiddle to Brandin Cooks and caught passes from Davis Mills, who was arguably the worst quarterback in the league. With Cooks gone and No. 2. pick C.J. Stroud taking over at quarterback, Collins, who is a physical and athletic specimen, is primed to break out. With an ADP of 121, the reward vastly outweighs the risk here.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
Did the fantasy football community fall into hibernation for six weeks last season? I mean, I can't be the only one who remembers Rondale Moore being one of the hottest commodities for a solid stretch of games.
During the six-game stretch (Weeks 5 to 10) in which Moore was fully healthy last year, he averaged 14.1 fantasy points and was the WR12 overall. Sure, the Cardinals' offense will take a step back in 2023 with DeAndre Hopkins gone and Kyler Murray injured. But guess what? In Week 10 last year, Murray was injured and Moore caught passes from Colt McCoy. His final line included 13 targets, nine receptions, and 94 yards, good for 18.4 fantasy points.
Moore is incredibly reliable when healthy. As long as he can stay on the field, he'll operate as the No. 2 behind Marquise Brown and handle heavy volume, especially if Arizona is playing from behind as much as expected. Moore's ADP of 150 makes him one of the most enticing sleepers in fantasy drafts.
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