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Analysis of five fantasy baseball shortstops drafted in the later rounds. Are these SS undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. But it's essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy, and also avoid players with some question marks coming into the season.
Today we are looking at some later-round shortstops for you to consider drafting, and also those to be cautious of. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
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Willi Castro, Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers shortstop Willi Castro will look to prove himself a fantasy star at shortstop this season after finishing fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020. Castro stepped into the starting role at short in the second half of the season, as he slashed .349/.381/.550 with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate and 5.0 percent walk rate over 36 games.
But it appears he was the beneficiary of some luck at the plate as his .448 BABIP was nearly 100 points higher than his previous career-high, and his 20.7 percent HR/FB rate was the first time in his career he posted a double-digit rate. That being said though, if Castro had finished with marks closer to his .299 xBA and .498 xSLG that would still place him among the top-10 shortstops in those categories.
Castro was on pace for a 30-home run performance over a full season last year, and he has shown double-digit steal potential throughout his career in the minors — although he has yet to steal a base in the majors. If he can hit even 17 homers with a .290 average and have some of that double-digit steal potential show up in 2021, Castro could be a steal at his current ADP of 237.
Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Indians
Long one of the New York Mets' top prospects, shortstop Andres Gimenez made his debut in 2020, hitting .263/.333/.398 with 3 HR and 8 SB across 49 games at 2B, SS, and 3B. After being one of the pieces moved to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor trade, there is some optimism around Gimenez in fantasy circles heading into 2021. Last year, as has long been with the case with Gimenez, the left-handed hitter displayed great defensive versatility and 94th-percentile speed, but little in the way of patience (5.3 BB%) or power (.136 ISO).
While Gimenez makes contact with above-average consistency, he does little damage with it, finishing in the 20th-percentile in exit velocity and 11th-percentile in barrel rate. His calling card in fantasy will be a defensive versatility that should keep him on the field often in Cleveland and the speed to rack up stolen bases when he gets on base. However, people looking for cheap steals should temper expectations since Gimenez is an aggressive hitter with an above-average Swing% and Chase% who has never put up high walk rates in the minor leagues.
He's likely to finish with an average around .250 with 8-10 HR and anywhere between 25-30 SB. That's nothing to turn your nose up at, but he's not going to help much in counting categories or with AVG/OBP, so if pitchers start taking advantage of his aggressiveness and keep him off the bases, thereby driving his SB total down closer to 20, you're not going to be getting a whole lot for his current ADP of 150. Considering Leody Tavares is going around 170, Nick Madrigal has an ADP of 190, and Jon Berti is being taken pick 245, I'd rather wait than take Gimenez at this current cost.
Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals
The shortstop position in fantasy is more stacked than ever, but if you don't draft one of the top options early, St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong could be a great target in the later rounds. DeJong only played in 45 games in 2020 after missing time due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and managed to hit just three homers. DeJong's .250 batting average in 2020 was an improvement over the previous two seasons -- .241 in 2018 and .233 in 2019 -- but it was inflated by a .340 BABIP.
While DeJong had a career-high strikeout rate (28.7%), he also had a career-high walk rate (9.8%) last year. DeJong's 30 homers in 2019 over 159 games came on the back of 44 homers in 223 games across the previous two seasons, so he's established himself a solid floor in terms of power. While it's unlikely he'll be able to top last year's .250 batting average, DeJong's power is enough to offset the negative impact that could have on your fantasy roster.
In 2019, DeJong also chipped in with nine steals and scored 97 runs while driving in 78 runs, so he contributes well to the counting stats as well. DeJong currently has an ADP of around 214 and is the 22nd shortstop being drafted, yet he's projected to be in the top 10 in homers and RBI at his position. If you wait on shortstop in drafts or just need some power in the later rounds, DeJong is a perfect fit.
Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Willy Adames had the seventh-highest swinging-strike percentage of any hitter in baseball last year, helped along by a 48.3% contact rate on swings at pitches outside the zone--11th-worst in the league. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, then, to learn that Adames also had the third-highest strikeout rate in the league at 36.1%. A statistically improbable .388 BABIP (fifth-highest in MLB) kept his slash line from bottoming out, but Adames is not the type of all-around hitter who can survive these low-contact and high-strikeout tendencies over the long haul.
His quality of contact on batted balls was a mixed bag; he was top-20 in the league in line drive rate, but he continued his career-long tendency to hit considerably more grounders (43.2%) than fly balls (31.1%). Since the beginning of 2018, Adames is one of only 11 players with a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or higher and a HR/FB rate of 18% or higher in at least 1,000 plate appearances. In other words, he doesn't hit many fly balls and has been abnormally lucky in terms of how frequently they've cleared the fence.
With number-one overall prospect Wander Franco waiting in the wings, one has to wonder how long Adames can realistically maintain the everyday shortstop role in Tampa without cutting down on the strikeouts at the very least. He doesn't carry much risk in fantasy leagues since he can be drafted in the final rounds, but the potential for reward isn't through the roof either.
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres shortstop/second baseman Ha-Seong Kim comes over to the United States in 2021 after a successful career in Korea. The 25-year-old slashed .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals last season, showing off his power/speed skills. He also has experience at third base and will be a utility infielder for the Friars, but most of his playing time is expected to come at second base while sharing time with Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar.
There's a lot to like about Kim's skill set with the lumber and on the bases, and he's just 25 years old, but until we have a better idea of how much playing time he'll receive, it's hard to recommend him as anything more than a modest middle-infield power/speed threat in the later rounds of mixed leagues. Spring Training production doesn't typically matter but it's important for a player like Kim, who's competing for playing time. Kim and Cronenworth have roughly taken the same amount of at-bats this spring with 26 and 28 AB's, respectively. Cronenworth is slashing .321/.406/.429 to Kim's .115/.233/.115.
They'll open the season in a platoon but it wouldn't be surprising to see Kim take more of a backseat to Cronenwroth, at least to start. Although he'll likely hit near the bottom of the San Diego batting order when he is in the lineup, Kim could have more chances to drive in and score runs in the loaded Padres lineup. He's still an attractive fantasy option at second base, which isn't very deep.
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